Australian cattle herd numbers could be ‘grossly over-estimated’

The year ahead for the livestock industry will be one of transition, with one of the biggest herd rebuilds “we’ve seen in a generation”.

Recovery from the chaos of the coronavirus outbreak and the impact of African Swine Fever in China will directly affect the Australian livestock industry throughout the rest of this year.

It comes as Australia sits in a unique herd rebuild situation, the likes of which have not been experienced for at least 30 years.

That’s according to a number of industry experts, who said national cattle herd numbers could be grossly over-estimated when looking at slaughter numbers in the last three years.

Rabobank senior analyst animal proteins Angus Gidley-Baird said he had “some reservations” about herd number estimates.

“The number of male cattle slaughtered in 2020 was 3.4 million … the lowest number in more than 35 years. Add to that the number of females slaughtered in 2020 was about the largest we’ve seen in about 30 years,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

“We could potentially be over-estimating the herd number by about three million.”

The role of China as an export market for Australian red meat would be pivotal, Mr Gidley-Baird said, as Australia is “very heavily exposed” to China from an agricultural context.

“In 2019 (China) was our biggest export market for beef, but it’s since dropped back.”

Rabobank senior analyst animal protein Chenjun Pan said the second wave of African Swine Fever in China has dented the nation’s domestic pork herd.

“Pork is the major animal protein consumed in China … the new wave of African Swine Fever has hit the market in the last four to five months,” Ms Pan said.

“About 20 to 30 per cent of the herd has disappeared, compared to the end of last year.”

Ms Pan said a full recovery for China’s pork herd won’t occur until 2023.

The livestock industry will face a “year of transition,” Mr Gidley-Baird said, as the nation works through one of the biggest rebuilds “we’ve seen in a generation”.

“The Australian cattle industry has a wonderful opportunity when rebuilding that herd to reassess, to take stock and think about where we want to be in the next generation, and setting up the industry for the next 30 to 40 years,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

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