Crop update: Canola outlook lifts

While canola yields are looking promising this year, prices are staying strong. Here’s how crops are tracking.

Tracking well: Seasonal conditions had been ideal for canola this season.

CANOLA crops are producing a sea of yellow across the country as yield prospects boom this season, with Victorian tonnages alone expected to be up by about a fifth on last year.

And despite the promise of hefty yields, prices remain strong with Geelong rates at $599 a tonne late last week. Come harvest however, seasonal selling pressures will cause prices to soften, according to Profarmer senior commodity analyst Angus Thornton.

Australian Oilseeds Federation chief executive officer Nick Goddard said for Victoria the early break meant crops were looking healthy, with many early varieties being planted in March. Seasonal conditions had been ideal for canola, Mr Goddard said, with growers opting to plant the oilseed in place of pulses, based on price expectations.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences’ September estimates showed canola plantings rose to about 450,000ha for 2020-21 in Victoria, up from 385,000ha.

And production is expected to hit 765,000 tonnes, a lift from 650,000 last season.

“There has been the odd reports of frost damage (in Victoria), but it is too early for any impact,” Mr Goddard said.

ABARES has put NSW production at about 869,000 tonnes in 2020–21, with area planted to canola expected to be 550,000ha. This made it a more typical production year, Mr Goddard said.

For northern NSW, Mr Goddard said while there were some good canola crops in the area, concerns were arising over crops drying out over the past few weeks.

“The western slopes of the Great Dividing Range have had good sub soil moisture, but they will need some rain next week and onwards,” he said.

The expectation of a bumper season will give domestic crushers access to locally grown canola this year.

“They had to import from Western Australia and South Australia last year,” Mr Goddard said. “But there will be ample supply on the east coast this year, so canola won’t be shipped through the country.”

Canola prices are also holding up well when compared to wheat and barley, Profarmer senior commodity analyst Angus Thornton said.

“With canola prices performing a lot better than wheat and barley, and the marketing window for canola smaller, many growers will probably sell their canola first,” Mr Thornton said.

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