ANZ grains report: Planning crucial ahead of bumper season
A major challenge for the grains industry will be to make sure it is ready to handle the large volume of production this year, according to the latest ANZ grains report.
THE grains industry is being encouraged to plan ahead as Australia looks to record the one of the largest year-on-year rises in both production and exports in over 50 years.
According to an ANZ grains report released today, the “cautiously optimistic” outlook for the national wheat crop this year remains at 26 million tonnes.
This is an increase of 71 per cent on last year’s drought affected production volumes of 15.2 million tonnes, ANZ Agri research director Michael Whitehead said.
“In addition, wheat exports are currently forecast to jump by around 90 per cent to 17.5 million tonnes,” he said.
It would mean wheat exports would account for about 67 per cent of Australia’s total production.
But with months to go until harvest begins, Mr Whitehead said some regions would need to see a return of good moisture for their crops reach their potential.
And through the second half of the year and into 2021, the grains industry will face a number of new challenges, the report indicated, including restrictions caused by the novel coronavirus.
“While the coronavirus situation in Australia later this year is difficult to predict, it would be wise to factor in any implications from possible continuing restrictions on cross-border movements between States,” Mr Whitehead said.
Grain traders and receival site operators will also need to focus on “ensuring that logistical capabilities and storage capacity are prepared for the scale of crop which could eventuate”, the report found.
“In the record wheat crop of 2016-17, some industry stakeholders were caught unprepared by the scale of the crop, leading to some logistical challenges along the supply chain,” the report said.
“It will be important for the industry to ensure that any potential issues such as port access and capacity or possible coronavirus related bureaucratic issues at the receiver end are planned for in advance.”
In addition, for companies utilising containerised grain, issues related to the reduced availability of containers – due to coronavirus related shipping interruptions – will also need to be factored into planning, the report said.
Meanwhile, crop production estimates released today from financial services company StoneX – also kept national wheat production at about the 26 million tonne mark.
StoneX estimates are at 26.87 million tonnes, above the ABARES June estimate of 26.61 million tonnes.
For barley, production was estimated at 10.41 million tonnes, below the ABARES June estimate of 10.51 million tonnes.
While canola volumes were forecast at 3.09 million tonnes, a drop from the ABARES June estimate of 3.24 million tonnes.
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