Darren Thomas of Thomas Foods International on plant-based protein and the future of beef

Is there a future for beef and dairy in a plant-protein obsessed world? Thomas Foods International’s chief says yes, but he’s banking on change.

Thomas Foods International chief executive Darren Thomas is no stranger when it comes to managing and handling risk.

Under his leadership, the former South Australian-based sheep and cattle processor has diversified to become a major exporter of both meat and seafood with a $2 billion turnover.

In the past three years Thomas has coped with the disaster of a fire destroying TFI’s key Murray Bridge meatworks and rebuilt even bigger and better, expanded globally into new markets and with new products and operational centres in the US, China, Japan and Europe, bought new farms to control more of its own supply chain and meat quality, and taken quiet steps into the crowded world of online food and meal retailing direct to the consumer.

Now Thomas is going further.

Darren Thomas of Thomas Foods at his property in the Hay Valley near Nairne. Picture: Brad Fleet

In March, TFI announced it is part of a three-pronged consortium, along with the Australian Milling Group and Australian Plant Proteins, to build three large and new plant protein manufacturing facilities in South Australia, costing $378 million, within the next 10 years, to make alternative protein foods.

The move will drive a major expansion of pulse cropping in South Australia – quadrupling the amount of lentils, faba beans and chick peas planted by its farmers – as demand for food made from plant proteins instead of animal products continues to climb in nations such as the US and Australia at exponential rates.

A recent Roy Morgan survey found 2.5 million Australians, or 12 per cent of the population, are now either entirely or mostly vegetarian.

Supermarket chains are seeing a 50 per cent jump in sales of plant-based protein products annually, with Deloitte Access Economics last year estimating Australia’s plant-based meat segment would grow to be worth $3 billion by 2030.

A separate survey found a third of Australians are actively limiting their meat intake, engaging in Meat-free Mondays and deliberately eating less meat meals, for both health reasons and because they believe livestock are bad for the planet, massively contributing to climate change.

So has the battle for the minds, stomachs and wallets of the next generation of consumers already been lost by the red meat and dairy industries?

It also begs the bigger question: do Australia’s $16 billion beef industry and $4 billion dairy industry have a future? In 2019, the controversial RethinkX Food and Agriculture report starkly predicted no.

It declared the world was at the cusp of the biggest disruption ever of agriculture because of the rise of cheaper, plant-based and alternative fermented foods that will be 10 times cheaper than animal proteins by 2035.

It forecast that by 2030 cattle numbers in the US (and by default in other developed countries such as Australia) will have dramatically halved.

RethinkX, an independent think tank, predicted this will trigger a total collapse of the US$400 billion beef and dairy industries as consumers turn their backs on expensive red meat and dairy products.

Farmland values, it said, would follow suit, plunging by 40-80 per cent.

Darren Thomas does not agree with this imminent scenario for the future of Australia’s beef and lamb industries.

He also makes it clear such forecasts are not why TFI is now investing in alternative plant protein food manufacturing; it is not about hedging his bets, reducing business risk or thinking the beef industry is doomed.

“Our investment wasn’t driven by thinking everyone will stop eating meat in 10 or 20 years; there is still very strong demand for our beef and lamb worldwide and I think this will continue, why else are cattle and meat prices at such record levels,” says Thomas, pointing to Meat and Livestock Australia’s commitment for the livestock industry to be carbon neutral by 2030.

“But I’m a realist about all this too; I’m in the food business now and I look at what’s happening with demand for alternative proteins – and there is no doubt it is one of the fastest growing segments in the food industry – and I see it as a great opportunity for us.

TFI’s Darren Thomas and Bega Cheese chief executive Barry Irvin will discuss the future of Australia’s beef and dairy industries at the Global Food Forum in Melbourne on Wednesday, June 1. For more details of speakers, tickets and the full program visit globalfoodforum.com.au.