ABARES: Australian agricultural production value to drop by 17 per cent
Drier seasonal conditions and reduced livestock prices are expected to cause a 17 per cent drop in agriculture’s total production value for 2023-24.
Australian agriculture’s gross production value is predicted to drop by a whopping $16 billion next financial year as falling livestock prices, increased global supply of key commodities and drying weather hit the industry.
According to the latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economic 2023-24 forecast, farming’s bottom line will plummet by 17 per cent to $78 billion, a big one-year fall from the record $92 billion worth of production across 2022-23.
However, that figure would still see the agriculture sector reap its third-highest yearly gross value on record.
The 2023-24 report, released on Tuesday, forecast that national crop production will fall by 19 per cent in gross value, or $12bn, to an overall $46bn “as expected drier conditions reduce soil moisture and crop yields”.
Meanwhile, the value of livestock production is likely to drop by $4.2bn to $32bn in 2023–24 as “high saleyard supply, low domestic restocking demand and growing global beef and sheep meat supply weigh on prices”.
In a challenging period for the livestock industry, year-on-year national indicator prices to October 2023 showed prices for cattle had fallen by 59 per cent, lamb was 40 per cent down and mutton a staggering 75 per cent.
The ABARES report suggested that falling average farm cash incomes would be compounded by farm input costs expected to remain “elevated”.
The average broadacre farm financial performance forecasts show that farm cash income will fall to just $113,000 in 2023-24 after hitting $350,000 in 2021-22 and $311,000 in 2022-23.
Acting ABARES executive director David Galeano said falling production values and incomes were linked to declining global prices reflective of higher global supply.
“Crop prospects for winter crops over spring have been mixed, and planting of summer crops in 2023–24 is expected to fall, reflecting below-average rainfall and low soil moisture levels during the early planting window,” he said.
The ABARES report forecast an overall 14 per cent exports reduction to $67bn in 2023–24.
The news follows three golden years of record-breaking crop production due to higher rainfall before Australia officially entered a period of El Nino in September.
Mr Galeano said this period of “high incomes” had allowed many broadacre farms to build up liquid assets, “which should help cushion the forecast downturn”.
Meanwhile, milk and wool production values are expected to fall slightly to $5.9bn and $2.9bn respectively while pig, poultry and eggs production value are forecast to rise slightly to $6.8bn.
Higher horticulture, wine grapes and sugar production values in 2023–24 are also expected to slightly offset the total fall in crop production values.
Olam Agri raise Namoi Cotton takeover bid to $154 million
The battle to own Australia’s largest cotton producing company has taken another twist with a Singaporean giant raising the stakes.
Perfecting logistics the key for this mango business
With more than 100,000 mango trees spread throughout northern Australia, ensuring every cog in the wheel is working together is the secret to success for Marie Piccone.