This election is critical to Australia, so why aren’t we paying attention?

It’s one of the world’s most important swing states and it’s central to Australia’s wellbeing, but there’s been scant reporting of the fact that Indonesia will hold its presidential election tomorrow. And it hasn’t made much news for the best possible reason: against most expectations, Indonesia is stable and successful and the election campaign has been calm and constructive.

It was only 26 years ago that its strongman military dictator Suharto fell, stirring fears in Canberra that the world’s most populous Muslim-majority nation would disintegrate or radicalise or fall into civil war or generate huge waves of boat people bound for Australia – or perhaps all four.

Indonesians are heading to the polls on Wednesday.Credit: Dionne Gain

Instead, its democracy increasingly is settled and it’s now rated as more free than some older democracies. It’s far from perfect, but the Washington-based Freedom House ranks it as freer than Singapore, for instance.

Indeed, Indonesia has some fascinating lessons for other democracies. Two features of its politics today are little short of miraculous. First, President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, is about to depart office with rock-star ratings. He has defied the orthodoxy.

Trigger warning for politicians elsewhere: Jokowi’s political capital has not decreased over time; quite the reverse. Over a decade in power, he has roughly doubled his early approval ratings of around 40 per cent to peak recently around 80 per cent.

And while the Indonesian Constitution forbids him to run again, his stellar popularity has given him tremendous sway over the choice of his successor. “No president has left office as powerful as Jokowi,” observes an authority on Indonesian politics, ANU professor emeritus Greg Fealy.

Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto (left) and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son ofoutgoing Indonesian President Joko Widodo, on the campaign trail.Credit: AP

The softly spoken, everyman-type, who owned a furniture manufacturing business before entering politics, has portrayed himself squarely as a leader preoccupied with the concerns of the ordinary people of Indonesia.

He pioneered blusukan, unannounced visits to check on progress of infrastructure projects and local officials. His overriding mission has been to win investment to generate growth and raise living standards. And it’s worked. Economic growth has been an unspectacular but steady 5 per cent, pandemic aside, and there is a sense of opportunity and optimism.

It hasn’t all been pretty. He’s used some underhand tactics. For example, Jokowi has been rolling out state social assistance spending as part of election campaigning, prompting complaints from rivals.

“The people strongly approve of what he’s done for the economy, but among people who put high value on the original goals of Reformasi [the democratisation movement that followed Suharto’s fall] such as independent state institutions, presidential neutrality, the quality of democracy – all that has been scuppered,” says Fealy.

Presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo speaks to his supporters during his campaign rally in Java.Credit: AP

A particular tragedy is the fate of the national anti-corruption commission, once a fearless and devastatingly effective watchdog. Jokowi has allowed some of its teeth to be removed. It’s been “more realpolitik than reform” according to political scientist Burhanuddin Muhtadi.

The second miracle has been the “de-polarisation” of Indonesian politics. For anyone watching the intensifying polarisation of American politics or some of the recent trends in Europe, it will be surprising and perhaps reassuring that divisions need not be self-reinforcing, that rifts can be healed.

“There’s been a move away from polarisation since 2019,” explains Fealy. “There hasn’t been any violence in the campaign, we haven’t seen the vitriol and polarisation of the last two elections. This is kind of a correction of the recent years of considerable cleavage and the exploitation of cleavage between nationalists and Muslims, for example. There’s been a consensus that it’s bad for the country.”

Critically, polarisation didn’t work. The frontrunner in tomorrow’s election is Prabowo Subianto, the former head of Indonesia’s special forces. He married into Suharto’s family and operated as a political enforcer for the dictatorship, notoriously accused of kidnapping and killing dissidents and protesters.

Prabowo always has denied the accusations and has never been charged, although the US banned him from entry for many years.

Prabowo ran for the presidency twice before, campaigning as a firebrand tough guy who rode a white charger and deployed furiously divisive politics. He baited Jokowi as some sort of fake Muslim, or an enemy of Islam. He raged against “foreign interference” and stoked resentment of Indonesia’s wealthy ethnic Chinese merchant class.

This divisive style worked to win support, but not enough to win elections. “Prabowo realised he’d never get to the presidency as the angry old general he campaigned as in 2019, his huge fist clenched, shouting at people like he’s getting ready to do battle,” Fealy recalls.

In an abrupt rebranding, Prabowo dropped his opposition to Jokowi and joined forces with him, instead. Jokowi appointed him defence minister, and they’ve co-operated closely for the past few years. Prabowo no longer rides a white charger but busts dance moves for TikTok.

Supporters of Indonesian presidential candidate Anies Baswedan gather during a campaign event.Credit: Getty

Prabowo “successfully replaced his stern strongman image with that of an adorable grandfather,” Erwida Maulia writes for Japan’s Nikkei Asia. “Many young Indonesians describe him as ‘gemoy’ – local slang for cuddly or adorable.” These are voters too young to remember him as Suharto’s enforcer.

Prabowo’s transformation has been an important part of the political system’s broader shift from hate to harmony.

His ultimate reconciliation with Jokowi came when the president engineered to install his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as Prabowo’s running mate. They are an odd couple, Prabowo and Gibran, the grizzled 72-year-old veteran soldier and the fresh-faced 36-year-old former wedding caterer.

This again disappointed the Reformasi idealists who abhor political dynasticism. But it works for Jokowi – if his son is elected vice-president, he can extend his influence beyond his term limit. And it works for Prabowo – the moment he adopted Jokowi junior as running mate, his popularity vaulted over the other contenders for the presidency.

What would President Prabowo mean for the future of Indonesia?

Many who remember the old Prabowo are fearful that the angry demagogue will return. But his success as a moderate seems to have reshaped him.

He casts himself as the new Jokowi: “We must continue everything that [Jokowi] has done,” Prabowo tells rallies.

Cartoon avatars for presidential frontrunners Prabowo and Gibran.

If he holds true to his word, Indonesia can continue to be stable and successful.

Peter Hartcher is international editor.

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