Claims of dirty tricks mar lead-up to poll but ‘Jokowi factor’ is key

On huge digital screens, an image of Indonesian presidential candidate Anies Baswedan greeted motorists as they passed through central Jakarta this week.

The creative billboards depicted the 54-year-old as if he were an icon of K-Pop, the Korean music genre that has taken Indonesia and many other parts of the world by storm, and which is known for its innovative marketing as well as its catchy tunes.

Anies Baswedan appears at a campaign rally in Bone Regency in South Sulawesi on Wednesday.Credit: Bloomberg

Produced and paid for by K-Pop-loving volunteers who support the former Jakarta governor’s bid for the presidency, the signs were meant to be on display for a week.

Unexplicably, however, they were taken down after just one day, as were a set of other screens in Bekasi, on the outskirts of the capital.

The removal of the billboards is just the latest incident in a suspected dirty tricks campaign to shore up victory for runaway election frontrunner Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of outgoing president Joko Widodo.

Alarmingly for analysts and rival camps, a major Indonesian news outlet published allegations of official interference to obstruct two rival presidential contenders, Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, 55, who was until recently governor of Central Java, Indonesia’s third most popular province.

Baswedan billboards in a K-Pop theme were removed this week.Credit: Winda Nelfira/Liputan6

In a cover story last month, Tempo revealed alleged instances of police and prosecutors pressuring business owners and village chiefs to throw their weight behind 72-year-old ex-special forces commander Subianto.

The Pranowo campaign team has complained of signs being taken down by local governments in Bali, North Sumatra and Banten provinces, and of 500 of them being destroyed last weekend in Cileunyi, West Java.

This week, videos also emerged of regional education officials directing school principals in Medan and civil servants in South Sulewesi to vote for the Subianto-Gibran ticket.

“Things like these continue to happen. So I think the conspiracy is getting stronger,” said Pranowo campaign legal adviser Todung Mulya Lubis, a Harvard school human rights lawyer and a former Indonesian ambassador to Norway.

Ganjar Pranow (left) and his running mate Mahfud MD arrive at a televised debate this month.Credit: AP

“We have met with Bawaslu [election supervision agency] and expressed our concern that there are so many violations in various places. We are waiting for decisions from Bawaslu. They must act quickly as the election supervisor, otherwise the honest and fair values of the election are threatened.”

Herry Dharmawan, a spokesman for Baswedan’s team, said on Friday they had been banned from campaigning from multiple locations by “government apparatus and law enforcers” and had had permits revoked for others.

“To us, such actions are indeed a sort of intimidation that destroys the dignity of democracy,” he said. ”Such bans or cancellations did not happen only once but frequently in several areas in Indonesia. However, this will not stop us from fighting for change for the Indonesian people.“

The Subianto-Gibran campaign disputes such assertions, claiming it is the one that has been targeted.

Prabowo Subianto tosses a T-shirt to supporters during a campaign rally in Medan last weekend.Credit: AP

“If there are indications of foul play according to the rivals, well, please process them legally according to the existing laws. But the evidence should be solid. It can’t just be based on rumours and social media,” said campaign secretary Nusron Wahid.

“Instead, it is proven that the abuse of power and intimidation occurred at places where heads of regions are supported by parties who supported the other candidates.”

With less than four weeks remaining until as many as 205 million people go to the ballot box in the world’s third-largest democracy, a new poll demonstrates just what Baswedan and Pranowo are up against.

According to the Indikator Politik survey, Subianto has 45.8 per cent support, well clear of Baswedan (25.5 per cent) and Pranowo (23 per cent), although short of the 50 per cent he would need to avoid a run-off in June.

As the election draws nearer, Widodo’s role in it has increasingly come into question. He will sign off from office after 10 years in power in October, handing the reins to the election winner.

Publicly, he has maintained he is impartial but with his 36-year-old son in the race and serving as a bridge to old foe Subianto, his preference has been barely disguised.

On January 5, he was photographed having dinner in Jakarta with Subianto, whom he defeated in the 2014 and 2019 presidential contests. He was also reportedly meeting with other heads of parties that are backing the former general.

In its editorial on Thursday, the Jakarta Post said Widodo, known as Jokowi,  had “taken actions that could undermine his claim to be staying above the fray”. It added that if he did not stay neutral, “history will not judge him kindly for interfering with the democratic process”.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo (right) has dinner with Subianto on January 5.

Marcus Mietzner, an associate professor specialising in Indonesian politics at the Australian National University, said it was the “Widodo factor” and not a mobilisation of state forces behind Subianto that would be likely to secure him the presidency at his third attempt.

“Much more important for that outcome is Jokowi’s massive popularity, which he built for a decade by distributing state resources, controlling the political elite through threats and rewards, and pulling the owners of media outlets into his government,” he said.

“The result was an 80 per cent approval rating, which he is now cashing in to put a chosen successor, plus his son, into the palace. Prabowo [Subianto] is winning because Jokowi threw his long-term political capital behind him, not because of campaign posters of his opponents being taken down.”

Mietzner said the increase in alleged cases of state intervention should be interpreted as a signal that Widodo and his allies want Subianto and Gibran to win by a majority in the first round on February 14 and not be forced into a second.

Approached for comment, Widodo’s co-ordinator of presidential special staff, Ari Dwipayana, directed this masthead to remarks he made on Tuesday.

“If there is information about abuse of power for election purposes, everything must be proven, examined,” Dwipayana said. “If there are violations on the ground, please report them to the election monitoring agency. The mechanism is clear. ”

He added: “We can see from surveys of credible institutions, the level of trust and level of confidence, satisfaction with the president is still quite high at above 75 per cent, showing that people respect and trust the president’s leadership.”

The Australian government will have officials monitoring the elections in Indonesia, a task embassy staff performed for polls in 2014 and 2019.

“Australia has been invited by Indonesia to provide a small number of election observers for the poll,” said a spokesperson for Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. “Australia has a long-standing partnership with Indonesia to support its electoral institutions.”

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