Dozens of NSW towns still in storm’s crosshairs after Alfred makes landfall

Dozens of communities across the state’s north are anxiously waiting for the extent of flooding as ex-tropical cyclone Alfred continues its slow move west from the Pacific.

The system had inundated parts of northern NSW and South East Queensland with rain after making landfall on the mainland at 9pm Queensland time.

The weather bureau warned that Sunday could bring the heaviest rainfall, heightening fears of major flooding in a string of already-saturated towns and rapid and dangerous river rises.

Flood warnings have been issued for dozens of NSW communities across the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast regions – including Lismore and Bellingen – which are in the crosshairs of the tropical low.

Lismore residents have been warned to seek higher ground and, in some cases, to evacuate.

River levels peaked at 9.33 metres along the Wilsons River in Lismore on Saturday afternoon, where moderate flooding continues, but heavy rain will continue into Sunday, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

“With forecast rainfall, renewed river level rises are possible at Lismore, and river levels may reach the major flood level during Sunday,” the bureau said.

By Saturday evening, parts of Mullumbimby, Bellingen, Thora and Dorrigo had experienced moderate flooding.

Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Christie Johnson said the tropical low was a significant weather event, and the wettest day could be still to come in many places.

The ex-tropical cyclone is making its way north-west at a speed of 6km/h and brings intense rainfall. Credit: weatherzone

“It is only just starting really from a flooding perspective because … for many places [Sunday] is going to be the wettest day, or maybe even into the start of next week,” Johnson said.

“A lot of people might be thinking, ‘Oh there’s not too much rain yet’, but the rivers are swollen, the catchments are wet, the ground is wet, and we’re expecting significant rainfall over the next 48 hours or so, so significant flood impacts are still to come and very, very likely.”

In the 24 hours to 4pm on Saturday, the NSW SES responded to 1117 incidents, including 29 flood rescues, numerous fallen trees, downed powerlines and flash flooding.

About 320,000 homes across northern NSW and South East Queensland remained without power on Saturday evening. More than 300 schools in NSW’s north will remain closed on Monday.

About 20,000 residents were under evacuation warnings. Flood advice warnings extend as far south as Taree and as far west as Coonamble, north of Dubbo.

However, the cyclone continued to weaken in strength as it approached the mainland, with wind speeds dropping to 55km/h, down from a previous high of 155km/h.

While the cyclone’s waning brought a sense of cautious optimism to some residents in Alfred’s path, authorities were at pains to stress it could still bring life-threatening risks in the coming days.

Speaking from Lismore, NSW Premier Chris Minns said the region was “not out of the woods”.

“The rivers are full. The rain is continuing and expected to keep falling in the days ahead, and wind conditions are very high and extreme, particularly on the coast,” he said.

NSW Premier Chris Minns and Lismore residents watch the river rise at the Browns Creek Pumping Station.Credit: Nick Moir

“Lots of communities have had an incredibly stressful week while they’ve been waiting for this cyclone to move through. And I want to assure them that the flood response, that the cyclone response, has been for the entire Northern Rivers, stretching down into the Coffs region.”

NSW SES Assistant Commissioner Nicole Hogan urged people in areas subject to emergency warnings not to become complacent.

“It is not currently safe for people to return until the warnings are lifted and the threat of heavy rain and flooding has passed,” Hogan said.

Alfred hovered about 20 kilometres off Australia’s east coast for much of Saturday afternoon after it was downgraded from a category 1 cyclone after it struck Bribie Island, north of Brisbane, earlier in the day.

It crossed the mainland between Maroochydore and Brisbane at 9pm on Saturday, bringing gale-force winds to many Brisbane residents.

On Saturday, major flood warnings were issued for the Tweed, Richmond, Wilsons, Brunswick, Orara, Clarence and Bellinger rivers in NSW.

Lismore received more than 132 millimetres of rain on Saturday, on top of Friday’s 147 millimetres.

Moderate flooding was occurring at Lismore by Saturday afternoon, and residents were warned to brace for possible major flooding as the evening progressed.

However, authorities were hopeful the crucial Wilsons River levee bank would hold.

The still-reeling Northern Rivers town was devastated by record flooding in 2022, with floodwaters reaching 14.4 metres.

State Emergency Service Commissioner Mike Wassing labelled Saturday “D-Day” for the state.

“Today, effectively, is D-Day. Irrespective of the crossing of the cyclone currently in Queensland, we’re still seeing very strong winds, but more importantly, we’re still seeing very heavy rainfalls, and therefore river rises, flash flooding and continued inundation of many areas,” he said.

NSW Deputy Premier Prue Car said the region was dealing with “several disasters at once”, with heavy wind, rainfall and subsequent flash flooding.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Saturday morning that residents in the region would experience “lasting” mental health issues as a result of forecast flooding and evacuations.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has acknowledged the mental health challenges posed by the extreme weather event.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

“Some of these communities have copped it time and time again, and that just makes it so tough for people who’ve rebuilt and recovered and who then find another wave of trauma heading their way along with the cyclone,” he said.

On Saturday evening, police found the body of a man swept into floodwaters near Dorrigo on Friday.

The man was driving across a bridge in his 4WD about 2pm. He initially managed to get out of the vehicle and secure himself to a tree about 30 metres from the river bank. However, he was swept away about 3pm.

Twenty-one evacuation centres remained open in NSW, which had received nearly 750 people.

Minister for the North Coast Rose Jackson said there had been significant challenges at evacuation centres as road closures hindered restocking. The M1 motorway reopened in both directions near the Queensland border on Saturday morning.

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