The issue dividing Australians more than ever

Australians will go to the ballot box more sharply divided over immigration than ever, with roughly half saying they think too many migrants are coming into the country as the issue shapes as a crucial federal election battleground.

Forty-nine per cent of Australians believe immigration is too high, up from 33 per cent last year, although those attitudes are being driven by record levels of worry about housing and the economy rather than a surge in anti-migrant sentiment as seen in the United States and Europe.

Still, support for multiculturalism has dipped, and more people hold negative attitudes towards Muslim and Jewish people as the Middle East conflict takes its toll.

Annual research by the not-for-profit Scanlon Foundation, which surveys more than 8000 people, reveals Australia’s social cohesion remains at its lowest level – first reached last year – since the survey began in 2007.

The country’s biggest problems were either the economy or housing affordability according to 63 per cent of people, while half of young people and 61 per cent of renters said they were struggling to pay bills or “just getting along”. People struggling financially were more likely to think immigrants made jobs harder to find and housing more expensive.

“No issue has ever dominated as much as the economy does in the last two years. And if you combine that with housing shortages and affordability, it’s even more so,” said the report’s lead author, the Australian National University’s Dr James O’Donnell.

“They’re totally distinct, the economy and social cohesion, but we’re finding links through people’s own experience of financial and rent stress, in particular.

“When people are financially stressed, they are less likely to say they feel they belong, trust people, trust government or believe Australia is fair. And then they’re also less accepting of differences and diversity, and the value of migration to Australian society.”

The findings lay the groundwork for a federal election campaign that will be fought on the economy and immigration.

It is the first year Australians have been equally split between the number who think immigration is too high and those who believe it is about right (40 per cent) or too low (9 per cent), after net overseas migration surged to record levels in 2022-23, surpassed targets in 2023-24, and is again on track to overshoot expectations in 2024-25.

O’Donnell said the sharp shift in attitudes was not surprising or out of step with political leadership, given Labor and the Coalition had been saying immigration was too high.

“Immigration has been really high lately, and both are [announcing] policies to try and reduce migration, so we think that’s leading people,” he said.

People’s attitudes towards migration appeared heavily influenced by their concerns about the economy or personal financial circumstances. Almost two-thirds of adults who said immigration was too high cited economic issues or housing affordability as the country’s most pressing problem, while more than 40 per cent described their financial situation as poor, struggling to pay bills, or just getting along.

The Coalition is appealing to those disenchanted voters as it links high levels of migration under Labor to the nation’s cost-of-living woes.

The worse off people were financially, the more likely they were to resist migration and multiculturalism. People who were poor or struggling were 10 per cent less likely to agree with the benefits of multiculturalism, 20 per cent more likely to think migrants were taking away jobs or raising house prices, and 20 per cent more likely to have a negative attitude towards people of different faiths.

However, concern about migration levels did not translate into broad support for a discriminatory migration program.

“People are distinguishing between the size of the migration program and the composition of the program,” O’Donnell said.

About four in five people disagreed that Australia should reject migrants based on race, ethnicity or religion, and three-quarters did not want the country to reject people because they were from a conflict zone. Seventy-one per cent agreed that accepting migrants from different countries made Australia stronger.

O’Donnell said this suggested Australia could have a mature and respectful debate about immigration numbers while still nurturing multicultural diversity.

“We thought we’d find some of the anti-migrant and divisive debate over migration we see in the US and the UK filtering through in social media, but we didn’t,” he said.

But support for multiculturalism, while still strong, has eased from its peak. More people said they had a negative view of Muslims – 34 per cent, up from 27 per cent last year – while there was an uptick in negative attitudes towards Jewish people, to 13 per cent from 9 per cent.

“Attitudes to migration and faith groups point to pressures on harmony and cohesion in a challenging global environment,” O’Donnell said.

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