Dutton edges ahead as voters thump Labor on economy

Voters have given Opposition Leader Peter Dutton an edge over Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on key measures of personal performance at the same time as they turn against the government on the economy, cutting Labor’s primary vote to 28 per cent.

Dutton has gained a narrow lead as preferred prime minister, backed by 36 per cent of voters compared with 35 per cent who favour Albanese, after a significant shift in his favour during disputes on climate, immigration and the economy.

Forty per cent of voters now rank Peter Dutton (left) and the Coalition as best to manage the economy, with only 24 per cent naming Anthony Albanese and Labor.Credit: Marija Ercegovac

The exclusive findings mark the first time Dutton has eclipsed Albanese as preferred prime minister in the Resolve Political Monitor, the regular surveys conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic.

The results show 40 per cent of voters now rank Dutton and the Coalition as best to manage the economy, with only 24 per cent naming Albanese and Labor as the best for the job.

On national security and defence, 42 per cent favour Dutton and the Coalition, while 23 per cent prefer Albanese and Labor.

Core support for the Coalition was unchanged over the past month, at 36 per cent, but Labor’s primary vote fell from 29 to 28 per cent – the lowest level since the Resolve surveys began three years ago.

The Greens lifted their primary vote from 12 to 14 per cent after a fiery argument with Labor and the Coalition about the public protests over the war in Gaza, although the increase appears larger due to rounding.

Dutton faced intense criticism from Labor and the teal independents last week when he rubbished the government’s target to cut carbon emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, saying he would not reveal his alternative until after the next election.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the latest survey showed Dutton was making significant gains and was not suffering a backlash over his climate stance.

“The important point is not Dutton’s narrow lead, but that he’s drawn level at all when this measure typically favours fresh incumbents,” Reed said.

“There are many voters who will be aghast because they made up their minds about Dutton a long time ago and aren’t for changing. But he’s coming through loud and clear to a lot of voters on the issues that matter to them.”

Reed said the shift in mood had parallels with the rise of Tony Abbott as opposition leader more than a decade ago, when observers thought he was too abrasive to win.

The findings highlight the growing damage to Labor from household frustrations with higher prices and the impact of a dozen interest rate rises since the last election.

When voters were given a list of more than a dozen policies ranging from education to national security and asked to name the most important, 54 per cent said it was keeping the cost of living low. Seven per cent named the environment and climate change, while another 7 per cent named healthcare.

The results came during a week when Dutton made his controversial climate remarks, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4 per cent and the latest population figures showed 547,000 migrants had arrived last year.

When voters were asked who was best to manage the environment and climate, 24 per cent named Labor and Albanese, while 22 per cent named the Coalition and Dutton. Labor’s lead has shrunk to 2 percentage points, from 15 points last October.

Asked who would be better at managing immigration and refugees, 38 per cent said Dutton and the Coalition while 21 per cent named Albanese and Labor. The government had a small lead on this question as recently as October.

On jobs and wages, the major parties are now evenly matched, at 32 per cent, a significant change from October when Labor had a lead of 17 points in net terms.

“Right now the ongoing cost pressures still dominate,” Reed said.

“Some of the comments we collect are becoming quite angry. We’re also beginning to see a more specific focus on the cost of housing and rents, as well as growing unease with job security.”

When voters were asked who would do a better job of keeping the cost of living low, 32 per cent favoured Dutton and the Coalition and 25 per cent backed Albanese and Labor, another shift from the government’s lead on this measure as recently as October.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1607 eligible voters from Tuesday to Saturday to generate results with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. The changes in the primary vote were within the margin of error, but the verdict from voters on Albanese and Dutton involved swings outside the margin.

When asked about their preferred prime minister, voters increased their support for Dutton from 32 to 36 per cent over the month and cut support for Albanese from 40 to 35 per cent. The number of undecided voters rose slightly from 28 to 30 per cent.

Asked about Albanese, 36 per cent of voters said he was doing a good job and 50 per cent said he was doing a poor job.

This resulted in a net performance rating of minus 14 percentage points, a deterioration from minus 11 points one month ago. The prime minister’s net rating was comfortably positive last July, at 16 percentage points, but fell sharply during the second half of last year and has kept falling.

Asked about Dutton, 42 per cent said he was doing a good job, a slight increase, and 40 per cent said he was doing a poor job, a slight fall. His net rating was 2 percentage points, a swing from minus 3 points one month ago and the first time in the Resolve Political Monitor he has had a net positive rating.

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