By Shane Wright
Australia’s surging population growth has finally slowed after the largest quarterly fall in immigrants since the nation’s borders were closed at the start of the pandemic, in an early sign the government’s efforts to curb migration are starting to work.
But figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which showed total population just short of 27 million, also revealed a further collapse in the nation’s birth rate, with the number of new babies falling to its lowest level since 2006.
Population growth eased for the first time since the depths of the pandemic, falling 3.6 per cent from the September quarter. In the 12 months to the end of September, the nation’s population swelled by 675,700 before easing to 651,200 in the 12 months to the end of December.
In the final three months of 2023, net overseas migration added 107,300 people to the total population. In the September quarter, immigration had added 151,000 residents.
Over the past year, net overseas migration has fallen by more than 12 per cent. The number of migrants entering the country over that period has fallen by 7.3 per cent while the number of people leaving has increased by 9.3 per cent.
Monthly figures since the start of this year have all suggested that migrant numbers, largely international students, are starting to fall from the very high levels recorded during 2023.
Despite the slowdown at the end of 2023, total net overseas migration through the year reached 547,200. In 2022, it was 433,100, while before the pandemic it was 247,600 through 2019.
The government will now struggle to meet the forecasts contained in last month’s budget, where it predicted net overseas migration would fall from 528,000 in the 2022-23 financial year to 395,000 in 2023-24.
Through the first six months of 2023-24, net overseas migration added 258,300 residents to the country. Without migration collapsing, the budget forecast will be surpassed.
Migrants continue to head mainly to NSW and Victoria, although both had their lowest quarterly intake since mid-2022. In 2023, NSW absorbed 184,619 net migrants while Victoria took in 160,175. Together, they took in 63 per cent of the nation’s migrants.
Population growth has put a strain on key infrastructure such as public transport.Credit: Wolter Peeters
The government plans to cut the number of permanent migration visas to 185,000 from 190,000 as part of a broader effort to reduce net overseas migration to 260,000 in the coming financial year. The Coalition has promised to cut migration visas to 140,000 for two years before increasing it to 150,000.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he made no apologies for reforming the migration system by tightening eligibility for foreign students who have largely driven the lift in immigration numbers.
Speaking at Flinders University in Adelaide, Albanese said the government had inherited a mess in the migration system when it came to power.
“Foreign students will continue to play an important role. It’s an important export for Australia and it’s good for our economy, it’s good for our universities, but it’s also good for our international standing,” he said.
But deputy executive director of the right-leaning Institute of Public Affairs Daniel Wild said based on the net overseas migration intake through the final six months of 2023, the government would miss its budget forecast for the full financial year by 121,600.
“The federal government’s failure to rein in out-of-control migration is making it harder for Australians to get ahead at a time of acute cost-of-living pressures,” he said.
“Per capita GDP has been negative for five consecutive quarters, meaning Australians at an individual level are in a recession.”
HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said although net overseas migration in 2023 was 26 per cent higher than in 2022, it was starting to slow.
Despite that slowdown, the country’s total population was about 25,000 below its pre-COVID forecast.
Reardon said the housing sector would struggle to deliver the housing needed for such a fast-growing population.
“The building industry has consistently argued for stable and reliable population growth. The boom-bust cycles in migration seen over the pandemic period leads to undesirable economic, social and business outcomes,” he said.
Without migration, Australia’s population growth would be barely above replacement levels.
Through 2023, the country recorded 287,000 births, the lowest number since 2006 when the Howard government-era baby bonus was in operation. Births peaked at 315,000 in 2021, a small baby bump during the pandemic after a fall in 2020.
But since then, births have fallen by 8.9 per cent. Deaths over the same period have climbed by 6.3 per cent.
As a share of the population, births have fallen to just 1 per cent from 1.3 per cent a decade ago.
Natural population growth added 46,000 people to NSW in 2021, but last year it slipped to 32,500, a drop of 29 per cent. Victoria had a fall of 26 per cent over the same period.
Nationally, natural population growth was just 103,900 last year, the lowest calendar year result in records going back to 1981. Over the past two years, it has fallen by 27 per cent due to the drop in births and the rise in deaths that has affected every state and territory.
The figures confirmed Western Australia continues to be the fastest-growing state or territory, with its population up by 3.3 per cent or 93,800 through the year. It is now home to almost 2.93 million people and on track to surpass 3 million by the end of the year.
Victoria added the most residents through 2023 with 186,500 people. Its population has reached 6.9 million, although overall growth slowed through the final three months of last year.
NSW’s population swelled by 185,500 last year to take its total number of residents to 8.4 million.
While the population grows, the fall in births also means there are relatively more older Australians across the country.
Retirement Living Council executive director Daniel Gannon said with people aged between 75 and 79 the largest growing population cohort in the country, more accommodation for the elderly was needed.
“Over the next two decades, the number of Australians over 75 will increase from 2 million to 3.4 million people, which will have socio-economic impacts on the nation,” he said.
“We also know that 710,000 Australians are set to retire within the next five years, which will have an impact on housing markets, hospitals, workforces and economies.”
Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.