Faced with governing post-pandemic, Qld Labor is rushing to defeat

What a dark and extraordinary time, so recent yet now so oddly removed, when it was the pandemic and nothing else; life was closed and home was a sanctuary – or prison – and each day the premier addressed her frightened, captive constituents with the most powerful three-word slogan of its time: “Keeping Queenslanders safe.”

COVID suspended the ordinary cycle of things, not least political warfare. The hottest issue in housing was how to isolate close contacts. Voters feared something other than marauding children.

Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli is ahead of Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk as preferred premier.Credit: Jamila Toderas

For a stable but sedentary middle-aged government more comfortable reacting to events than testing soaring reform, COVID was a golden ride to a romping 2020 election victory, Labor’s third on the bounce.

Remember those times? Annastacia Palaszczuk would like you to.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor poll has her government facing defeat at next year’s election. It is the first time the survey, which tracks sentiment over time rather than capturing a moment, has Labor behind the LNP on first preferences, and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli the preferred premier.

Most concerning for Labor: the trickle of sentiment toward the challengers through 2022 and the early months of this year has become a torrent.

From a primary vote of 33 per cent in the January to April polling period, the LNP has now reached 38 per cent in the latest track from May to August. It is a six-point lead over Labor, which has slipped from 40 per cent at the 2020 election.

With the pandemic troubles now a wretched chapter of history, the grievances of youth crime, housing and health have re-emerged, perhaps more potent than ever.

And the Queensland government, faced again with the task of traditional governing, appears tired, secretive and defensive against a resurgent LNP armed with attacks and open runs in the news.

Accordingly, the number of people who know of Crisafulli has rocketed from 58 per cent to 68 per cent over the past four months.

While the metric was small compared to Palaszczuk, who was recognised by 96 per cent of the sample, Crisafulli still emerged as the preferred premier – 37 per cent to 36 per cent.

The trend spells clear trouble for the premier. Even as a relatively obscure alternative, Crisafulli appeared to be getting newly engaged constituents to break in his favour.

The LNP’s messages, headlined as ever by variations of “tough on crime”, tap easily into the heartland’s conservative tendencies. They have been amplified, not always without cause, by unrelenting media coverage painting Queensland as violent and frightening, a shell of some erstwhile and squandered utopia.

The success of the LNP’s campaigns, which include housing, matters of integrity and the cost of living, may be most evident in answers to survey questions about the future.

Asked about the coming 12 months, 37 per cent of respondents expected their personal situations to get worse. This was identical to the figure recorded in the previous Resolve poll.

But asked the same question about the state more broadly, 55 per cent expected conditions to get worse – an increase of 23 points on the last survey. If not directly affected by myriad crises or expecting to be, respondents had certainly heard about them.

Attempting to placate its critics, the government in March passed tough youth justice legislation, both at odds with expert advice and its own pre-2020 brand. In May, it removed Yvette D’Ath from the health portfolio in a cabinet reshuffle, replacing her with the rising Shannon Fentiman.

Then, in the June Budget, it promised every Queensland household a $550 power bill rebate and 15 hours a week of free kindergarten. Nothing has arrested the slide.

Did voters receive these measures as the actions of a nimble and responsive government, or as validation of its opponents’ criticisms? The latest poll suggests the latter. But after more than eight years in power, Queenslanders may simply be tired of the same faces, voices and spin. This happens.

The survey adds to the growing corpus of evidence that the Palaszczuk government will be gone at the 2024 election. Only Daniel Andrews’ Labor government, which easily won the Victorian election in 2022, has been around longer.

Like Andrews, Palaszczuk is an astute politician, the “Queensland whisperer”, according to some Labor types. There may be tricks left in the kit. But unlike 2020, it appears the troubled hearts and minds of the quiet Queenslanders now rest with the other team.