Victorian dams are full. Towns devastated by flooding are again on edge

Fay Wolfe gazes out over the guard rail at Lake Eppalock with an awful sense of foreboding.

Water sits at the edge of the spillway that is supposed to control the excess flow when the dam is full. Wolfe now lives with the fear that water will once again gush over the edge.

“It gives me chills just looking at it,” she says.

Rochester resident Fay Wolfe at Lake Eppalock.Credit: Joe Armao

In October last year, water cascaded over the spillway crest at Lake Eppalock near Bendigo and poured into the Campaspe River, which burst its banks downstream and flooded the small north Victorian town of Rochester.

Lake Eppalock is one of many dams that are close to full across Victoria, despite expectations that an El Nino weather pattern would bring drier and warmer conditions this winter.

Some of the biggest water storages in the state, including Dartmouth, Thomson and Lake Eildon, are about 97 per cent full, while the smaller Eppalock is sitting at higher than 98 per cent.

Heavy rain has saturated paddocks making for gloomy conditions for cattle farmers and vegetable growers in much of Victoria.

In Rochester, there is rising anxiety about the high water levels in Eppalock. Many residents are still living in caravans, while others have not yet returned to their severely damaged homes after the worst floods in a generation inundated the town in October.

Wolfe and her husband are among those living in caravans at Rochester after the water reached half a metre up the walls inside their house.

She said residents were feeling stressed and feared another flood when it rained.

“We’re living in our backyard and we certainly don’t feel safe,” Wolfe said. “We have to be ready to pick up and run again.”

Wolfe wants Goulburn-Murray Water to ease the pressure on Eppalock by releasing more water from the storage into the Campaspe River to prevent another overflow – a plea supported by many in her community.

She also wants the authority to upgrade its infrastructure so it could release more water when necessary.

Goulburn-Murray Water confirmed it was able to release 1600 megalitres of water a day, but was currently releasing 150 megalitres “to meet passing flow requirements”.

A view of Lake Eppalock and its spillway from the sky. Credit: Joe Armao

In October, outflows from Eppalock peaked at 103,000 megalitres a day.

The authority maintains it makes “pre-releases” only when the storage is expected to refill.

The authority’s water storage services general manager, Martina Cusack, said Eppalock was not currently spilling over, but a spill would not necessarily result in another flood.

“We appreciate that residents downstream of Eppalock, and in particular in Rochester, are concerned about a repeat of the 2022 floods,” she said.

Cusack said Eppalock’s spillway had been activated at least 29 times since it was constructed in 1964, but only six of those events were above the minor flood level.

The state government has commissioned a technical assessment of Lake Eppalock to determine whether the operating rules or infrastructure can be improved for communities downstream. The final report is due for release later this year.

The state government was contacted for comment.

Angus Hines, a senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, said June had been wetter than average across much of the state, with north-western Victoria receiving up to 100 millimetres of rain while the south-west received between 100 and 200 millimetres.

A flooded Rochester in October last year. Credit: Justin McManus

After some rain over the weekend, Hines said dry weather was forecast for much of next week. However, he said flooding was still possible in Victoria despite the drier long-term outlook.

“Even modest rainfall totals can result in river rises with the saturated soil,” he said.

Australian National University water expert Jamie Pittock said communities would come under increasing threat from floods in riverine and urban areas. “It’s going to get worse in a changing climate,” he said.

Pittock said he had been urging state and federal governments to consider helping people to move to less flood-prone places.

“This isn’t something we can engineer our way out of with more levee banks.”

Pittock said water managers were in a difficult position because releasing more water from storages might result in less water available during times of need, including drought.

Victorian Farmers Federation president Emma Germano said many livestock farmers and vegetable growers were struggling with the wet conditions.

“It certainly dampens farmers’ spirits,” she said.

Germano said the heavy rain had damaged the potato crop at her farm in South Gippsland.

“Everything stops growing of course when it’s cold and miserable.”

However, grain farmers in the state’s north were more likely to be happy with the wet weather, Germano said.

Get to the heart of what’s happening with climate change and the environment. Our fortnightly Environment newsletter brings you the news, the issues and the solutions. Sign up here.