As it happened: Putin survives rebellion, Wagner Group boss exiled to Belarus

Good afternoon. It’s been a frenzied 24 hours or so in Russia, with Vladimir Putin appearing to have staved off a rebellion. Here’s your catch-up at a glance.

How did this go from potential coup to non-coup?
The head of the mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, declared a “march for justice”, took control of military headquarters at the towns of Rostov-on-Don and sent a convoy of mercenaries through the town of Voronezh.

Putin responded, declaring it an act of treason and a “stab in the back”.

Wagner’s military column reportedly got within 200 kilometres of Moscow when it was turned around, as Prighozin ordered his men to stand down and struck an agreement with Putin, brokered by Belarus president Alexsandr Lukashenko.

Read more from Europe correspondent Rob Harris here.

What were Wagner’s movements?

What happens to Prighozin?
The Wagner boss has agreed to exile in Belarus. He departed Rostov-on-Don as the Wagner troops retreated, while charges against him for organising the uprising will be dropped, as part of the deal.

And what about Putin?
This will be the question that fascinates most: have these events weakened Putin’s grip on power, and what does it mean for his future? The answer, according to columnist James Kilner, is that Putin’s been “permanently damaged and his Kremlin days are numbered”.

Putin’s aura of invincibility and control, badly fractured by his misguided and failed invasion of Ukraine, will now be shattered.

Read more here.

Thanks so much for joining us today as we continued our coverage of the now averted Russian rebellion.

Here are some of the major stories from today:
Russian advance halted; Putin says those involved in mutiny will be punished

Wagner chief agrees to halt advance on Moscow after striking deal with Putin

Explained: How 24 hours of chaos weakened Putin’s grip on power

The ‘crazy dictator’ behind the deal that kept Putin in power

Coup threat revives concern: How secure are Russia’s nukes?

We will have more coverage in the days to come so please keep visiting our mastheads.

Please have a lovely evening and see you next time.

The US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War says the Kremlin “faces a deeply unstable equilibrium” after the deal to end the rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group.

The institute said that the optics of Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko having played a role in halting a military advance on Moscow were “humiliating” to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the nation after the mutiny broke out.Credit: AP

It said that “the Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses” in the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry.

The Kremlin’s apparent surprise at Prigozhin’s rebellion also doesn’t reflect well on the FSB, Russia’s domestic intelligence service, it added.

The ISW noted that Prigozhin “consistently escalated” his rhetoric against the Russian Defence Ministry before starting his revolt “and Putin failed to mitigate this risk.”

AP

Bloomberg has a couple of reactions from various foreign governments to the events in Russia over this weekend.

Italy’s sees weaker Russia

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said events in Russia showed that its front in Ukraine is weaker, telling Messaggero in an interview that he hopes a peace deal in Ukraine is now closer.

“Putin is not a myth anymore,” he said.

Kazakh leader welcomes resolution of events

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev welcomed the measures taken by the Russian authorities to restore constitutional order and ensure the safety of their citizens.

Polish leader sees de-escalation in Russia

“Everything indicates there’s de-escalation in Russia,” Polish President Andrzej Duda told reporters after a meeting of the country’s National Security Bureau on Sunday AEST, adding that “there is no increased risk to Poland” from the weekend’s events.

Bloomberg

Walking near the Kremlin in downtown Moscow on Saturday morning, Nina Khrushcheva encountered a wedding party gathered outside the historic National Hotel.

When she asked about continuing with the celebration amid a national crisis, one guest responded, “We are not going to cancel it for no reason,” said Khrushcheva, an expert on international relations and a descendant of former Soviet ruler Nikita Khrushchev.

A man takes down the poster with writing reading “Join us at Wagner”.Credit: AP

Life in Moscow continued with an air of studied calm even as Yevgeny Prigozhin, the pugnacious head of the Wagner mercenary group, seized control of a key military headquarters in the southwestern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and began dispatching convoys of troops and armoured vehicles towards the capital before standing down. President Vladimir Putin continued to work in the Kremlin, his spokesperson, Dmitri Peskov, told reporters.

Even before the uprising, officials had made every effort to project an air of normalcy in Moscow while Russia waged a brutal war across the border in Ukraine. Much of that effort continued on Saturday. Movie theatres and museums were open in the capital, and there was no sign of lines at the supermarkets to stock up on goods.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

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Just when it looked as if Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power was seriously threatened for the first time in two decades, an eccentric ally strode in to save the day: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

A revolt led by Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared to be on the verge of blossoming into a full-blown coup on Saturday, Australian time, as his mercenary troops stormed towards Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on June 9.Credit: Kremlin via Reuters

With most Russian troops deployed in Ukraine, Prigozhin’s soldiers encountered remarkably little resistance and quickly seized key military facilities in southern Russia.

Clearly rattled by the chaotic scenes, Putin took to television to urge Russian police officers, members of the public and all remaining soldiers to help suppress the “armed rebellion” that was under way.

In the end, though, it was a mustachioed, Soviet-style despot who provided the elegant solution that ended the uprising. Under a deal supposedly brokered by Lukashenko, Prigozhin will go into exile in neighbouring Belarus while Russia drops all charges against the mercenary leader and his fellow troops.

Click here to read the story.

Chaos in Russia works to Kyiv’s advantage, Ukraine officials said on Saturday, but it remains to be seen whether President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his army can capitalise on the disorder caused this weekend as mercenaries marched towards Moscow.

Late on Saturday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a founder of the Wagner army, said he was halting his “march for justice” on Moscow after a deal that spared him and his mercenaries from facing criminal charges. The deal also exiled Prigozhin to Belarus.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a joint press conference with Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Kyiv in June.Credit: AP

“Today the world saw that the masters of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Just complete chaos,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address, urging Ukraine’s allies to use the moment and send more weapons to Kyiv.

The Prigozhin unrest, the biggest internal challenge to President Vladimir Putin as Russia’s paramount leader for 23 years, has spurred global security concerns and a frenzy of calls between Washington and its allies to coordinate actions.

“Any chaos behind the enemy lines works in our interests,” State-run Ukrinform news agency quoted Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba as saying on Saturday.

Reuters

Traffic restrictions remained on the M-4 “Don” major expressway in the Moscow and Tula regions on Sunday, the Federal Road Agency said on the Telegram messaging app.

“According to earlier decisions made in the regions, the restriction of traffic along the M-4 ‘Don’ (highway) in the Tula and Moscow regions remains in place,” the agency said.

Heavily armed Russian mercenaries who had advanced most of the way to Moscow on Saturday then halted their approach, de-escalating a major challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power, in a move their leader said would avoid bloodshed

Reuters

University of California, Berkeley professor Stephen Fish has described Yevgeny Prigozhin as looking like “the strongest guy in Russia” after his deal with Russian president Vlaidimir Putin to stop his “March for Justice” towards Moscow.

Fish, a politics professor, said Prigozhin’s deal made Putin’s power look diminished as just hours before the deal, he compared Prigozhin’s invasion of Russia to the Russian Revolution of 1917.

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.Credit: AP

“One of the things that has come out of this is that Yevgeny Prigozhin now looks like the strongest guy in Russia,” Fish told BBC News.

“Remember that in a dictatorship like Putin’s, the main way the top guy stays in power is to look stronger and tougher than everyone else.

“He wants to look unassailable but what Prigozhin has done is put a line through the idea that Putin is fully in charge.”

Fish also said that Prigozhin’s invasion, while now over, had made him appeal to both the elites and Russian soldiers.

“Prigozhin comes off looking like the guy who cares about the troops, who stood up for them
and Putin is very concerned that could infect the thinking of the entire military,” Fish told BBC News.

“Prigozhin comes off to the Russian elite as the one guy who can stand up to Putin, in a system like this, a guy who can stand up to Putin and get away with it, he looks like the biggest guy in town and that is very bad for Putin.”

A former personal chef turned leader of a rebellion uprising. An armed convoy of mercenaries headed towards Moscow. Vladimir Putin declaring an act of treason. The president of Belarus brokering the agreement to stand down.

It’s been a frenzied 24 hours in Russia, with Putin staving off a paramilitary insurrection on the Kremlin’s armed forces.

The Wagner uprising has weakened Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.Credit: Aresna Villanueva

But what triggered the “march for justice”? Why now? How did it end so quickly? And what happens next?

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