It’s exciting that the new season of MasterChef Australia is returning to the “back to win” format. This isn’t just because we’re going to get another chance to see some of the contestants we love – and possibly even more exciting — some of the ones we hate. It’s also because when a MasterChef cast is made up of known quantities, we can have a decent crack on drawing a bead on likely winners and losers.

First of all, let’s eliminate the also-rans. Anyone who we cannot remember being on the show can be considered a non-starter. If you weren’t good enough to stick in the mind, you’re not going to be good enough to win.

I have no idea who “Rhiannon”, “Alana”, “Beau” or “Jamie” are, and as a responsible journalist, I am bound to report there is no firm evidence these people were ever on MasterChef. So nah, they’re not going to win.

Neither are the too-one-dimensional aspirants such as Italian Andre, Bread Boy Theo, or Tim, who has spent the intervening years making toasties and won’t know what to do with an oven. Contestants such as Snezana and Steph are there more for colour than competition, while Rue has already soared too close to the sun with her special sauce and will struggle to ascend such heights again.

Matt is now an associate professor of dentistry, and no associate professor of dentistry has ever won MasterChef, so forget him. And then there’s Jimmy, a food photographer who’s better at making food look good than at, you know, making food.

With that out of the way, here’s your likely top 10 …

10. Cath Collins
Cath was a favourite in S15 and finished fifth, which was impressive because most people probably remember her larger-than-life personality better than her cooking. It’s that personality that will serve her well in Back to Win – the judges might not like her food, but they’ll hate to say goodbye to her. If she can make tasty dishes, so much the better.

9. Declan Cleary
Quirky Declan was by turns off-putting and adorable in S15, but kept sneaking under the radar to win challenges with his laser-like focus and love of our delicious and moist friend, the fish. He was a masterful seafood cook and since the competition has travelled the world flashing his spatula – greater experience will make him a threat.

8. Samira El Khafir
Samira finished third in S5 and left a big impression on viewers, her warmth and generous spirit complementing her skill with Middle Eastern cuisine. Like many old MC hands, Samira has gone pro since the show, opening her own cafe. Expect a more hardened, ruthless Samira this time around, her experience in the food industry having made her hate humanity and be much more willing than last time to inflict pain on her rivals.

7. Savindri Perera
Sav impressed last year and loved the experience so much she’s returned at the first opportunity. She is now a private chef and a Sri Lankan national hero, and will no doubt be bursting with confidence as she enters the kitchen. Then again, she was bursting with confidence the first time around and must beware of overconfidence. She’ll do well but won’t win as she’ll lack the crucial bitter ferocity of the veterans.

6. Sarah Todd
By this stage, Sarah should be primed to win MasterChef, having competed on the show, at a rough estimate, between 40 and 50 times. Chef, restaurateur, author, TV host, entrepreneur and paragon of quiet modesty, Todd will no doubt follow her usual strategy of psyching out her opponents by mentioning how many restaurants she owns in India every three minutes.

5. Darrsh Clarke
Like Sav, Darrsh returns from last season, and will be difficult to beat due to his killer one-two punch: cooking and handsomeness. Nobody wants to see a man this attractive leave the kitchen, and you can expect Darrsh to take full advantage of his chiselled features and beautiful, beautiful eyes. Also, he’s got 2024 champion Nat Thaipun as a housemate, so his access to winner’s wisdom will make him extremely dangerous.

4. Laura Sharrad
Laura came second in S6 and again in S12. Is it her time, finally? No, but she’ll come damn close. Her mastery of Italian food – scientifically proven to be the best kind of food – impressed everyone on her previous appearances, and she has plenty of professional experience to back up her nifty way with a lasagne. Expect her to be tipped as the winner for weeks and weeks and then shockingly be eliminated to howls of very stupid protest on social media.

3. Depinder Chhibber
It was a bit of a shock in S13 when Depinder departed – she was seen as a major frontrunner and her ability was unquestioned. But she took a risk with a tomato salad and learnt the hard lesson we all learn eventually: salad is for losers. She won’t make that mistake again, instead likely to bring utter steely determination to the task. Her calm temperament and winning knack for relating backstory in a moving and inspirational way that matches perfectly with swelling strings make her a major threat.

2. Pete Campbell
Long blond hair, a winning smile and super-weird food: these were the elements that brought Pete to the edge of glory in S13. Back then he made things such as cucumber dumplings that in normal circumstances would have seen him arrested, but that the judges loved because they were bizarre and looked disgusting, so they had to be great. He’s honed his eldritch tastes at Sydney’s three-hatted Quay and is ready to bring more avant-garde frippery to the table. Pete is seriously good at the haute cuisine thing, and he will be very hard to stop.

1. Callum Hann
Callum was just a callow youth when he came agonisingly close to pulling off a glorious victory in S2. Since then he’s returned in S12, opened three restaurants and a cooking school, written cookbooks and spread the gospel of Callum across the land -- all while seething, plotting and scheming and waiting for his chance to wreak revenge on those who denied his genius in the past. Callum was always a brilliant cook, and has now added experience and a burning, insatiable desire for retribution to his natural talents. He will be absolutely lethal in this competition, and my tip is he’s going to see his enemies flee before his Hibachi.

Good Food won’t be recapping MasterChef this season but we’ll be back with more of Ben Pobjie hot takes in coming weeks.