Insurance profits tipped to get a boost from El Nino

Investors are betting insurance giants’ profits will get a boost from lower disaster claims this summer due to hot and dry conditions caused by a likely El Nino weather pattern, as the industry also rakes in higher revenue after steep increases in premiums.

Insurers’ claim costs have blown out in recent years due to severe flooding and storms, including the early-2022 east coast floods, which were Australia’s costliest insurance event on record, with $6 billion in insured losses.

The east coast floods of early 2022, including at Lismore in northern NSW, were the most expensive insurance event on record in Australia.Credit: The Sydney Morning Herald

A likely reason for the onslaught, alongside the long-term role of climate change, is that the past three summers have included La Nina events, characterised by wet weather and cooler temperatures.

But investors are predicting this summer could be less costly for home insurers because the nation is likely to face an El Nino weather pattern, which is linked to hot and dry conditions that have historically led to fewer claims.

Jarden analysts have said that over the past half-century Australian and New Zealand insurers’ catastrophe costs during El Nino or “neutral” periods have been about half those seen in La Nina, highlighting the potential “upside risk” for IAG and Suncorp. Morgan Stanley analysts have also said insurers were “well-placed to over-earn during El Nino”.

While hot weather raises the risk of bushfires, experts have said the bush has not dried out as it had in the lead-up to the 2019-20 Black Summer, and bushfires tend to be less costly for insurers than floods and storms because fires are less likely to hit big cities. Drier weather also tends to result in fewer road accidents.

Andrew Martin, principal at fund manager Alphinity, said trying to predict weather costs was far from an exact science, but the likelihood of a hot and drier summer was one reason investors were upbeat on insurers, alongside the big increases in premiums.

Martin noted insurers had also lifted their disaster budgets significantly, and insurers’ investment portfolios were making higher yields because of rising interest rates.

“The weather side, if that works out, is kind of the cherry on top,” said Martin, who is invested in insurers.

The northern hemisphere summer included record-breaking heatwaves this year, and the Bureau of Meteorology has said there is a 70 per chance of an El Nino event this summer.

In a sign of the surge in premiums, IAG reported in August that home insurance premiums had soared about 20 per cent a year on average, while premiums for car insurance had jumped by about 15 per cent.

UBS analyst Scott Russell also said the consensus view in the market was that El Nino weather systems were more favourable for insurers because they resulted in lower claim costs, and this had been priced in by investors.

“I think there’s a cycle that benefits insurance claims as we move to El Nino. I think investors are conscious of it,” Russell said.

IAG shares have risen more than 12 per cent since early June, and Russell said a key reason for the rally was the prospect of El Nino, alongside the sharp increase in premiums for home and motor cover.

With spiralling premiums raising concerns about insurance affordability, the industry has defended price rises by pointing to higher costs from extreme weather; inflation in building materials, labour and car parts; and surging reinsurance costs.

KPMG’s insurance partner Scott Guse said Australian Prudential Regulation Authority data showed the nation’s insurers made an underwriting loss, on average, in their home insurance portfolios in the year to June.

“Obviously that is not sustainable for insurance companies,” he said, predicting premiums would keep rising, but at a slower pace.

IAG is expecting warmer conditions and lower risk of flooding this summer, with meteorologist at IAG’s NRMA Insurance, Dr Bruce Buckley, flagging the risks of grass fires and severe hailstorms.

“Some of the extreme weather drivers experienced in the northern hemisphere – such as widespread and increased sea temperatures, and El Nino – also apply to Australia, escalating the risks associated with higher temperatures this spring,” Buckley said.

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