NSWRL Junior Reps: Run to the finals for every contender in Matts, Fiaola, Ball and Gale Cup
With just four rounds remaining the race for finals spots is well and truly on. We crunch the numbers for all four grades to see who will be there and who will be watching from the sidelines.
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The run to the NSWRL Junior Reps finals is well and truly on with just four rounds remaining across the board.
We crunch the numbers ahead of every remaining round to determine who will be there in the post-season and who will be watching from the sidelines.
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Top 20 performers from round five
HAROLD MATTHEWS CUP
1. ILLAWARRA (4-0, 10pts, +48)
Run home: St George (H), North Sydney (H), Syd Roosters (A), Balmain (A)
They keep finding a way to grind out wins, with their average margin of victory sitting at just 12 points. Their run to the finals isn’t exactly the easiest, but they should be locking in a top-two spot from their current position.
2. MANLY (3-1, 8pts, +36)
Run home: Newcastle (A), Cronulla (A), St George (A), Parramatta (H)
After a good run at home they’re on the road for the next three weeks, with the next fortnight holding the keys to their destiny. Would need to win all four for the top-two, but they should be making the finals from here.
3. CENTRAL COAST (3-1, 8pts, +36)
Run home: Canterbury (H), Melbourne (H), Parramatta (A), Penrith (A)
Will fancy their chances of securing a bye in the first round of the finals. The highest ranked team they play on the run home is in ninth, meaning it would be a catastrophic collapse if they aren’t playing finals footy.
4. SOUTH SYDNEY (3-1, 8pts, +32)
Run home: North Sydney (H), Penrith (H), New Zealand (A), Canterbury (A)
Another team with a pretty soft run to the finals, not taking on a team currently ranked above eighth. A win this week to shrug off their last-round defeat is essential and they also look certainties to play finals.
5. CRONULLA (3-1, 8pts, +32)
Run home: Syd Roosters (H), Manly (H), Canterbury (H), St George (A)
This next fortnight at home will be the difference between them making or missing the finals. A home game against the seventh-placed Roosters is a must-win and can potentially open up a four-point gap. I think they drop out of the six however.
6. NEW ZEALAND (3-1, 8pts, +26)
Run home: Wests (A), Balmain (A), South Sydney (H), Syd Roosters (H)
Snuck into the finals last year and won the comp so they’re no strangers to doing it the hard way. The Warriors are no longer flying under the radar, and they will need to win three of their remaining games to make it. Will they do it? I think so.
7. SYD ROOSTERS (2-2, 6pts, +52)
Run home: Cronulla (A), Canberra (A), Illawarra (H), New Zealand (A)
Their strong differential puts them in a strong position should they be able to get the necessary wins. This week against Cronulla is a game they cannot drop, and they look like they have the firepower to burst their way into the six.
8. NORTH SYDNEY (2-2, 6pts, +10)
Run home: South Sydney (A), Illawarra (A), Canberra (A), Wests (H)
Would need to win all four games to seeing them as a realistic chance to make the finals, and with games against South Sydney and Illawarra over the next two weeks that looks like a tough ask. One thing is for certain, they absolutely won’t lie down.
9. PARRAMATTA (2-2, 6pts, +6)
Run home: Canberra (H), Wests (A), Central Coast (H), Manly (A)
They look like the team that can go on a run, and they’ll need to given they currently sit in ninth. Facing two top-three sides in the final two rounds is brutal and I can’t see them overcoming the odds to advance in this competition.
10. NEWCASTLE (3-2, 6pts, +4)
Run home: Manly (H), Canterbury (H), Balmain (H), BYE
Their remaining three games are all at home, and they’ll need to be successful in all of them given their poor points differential. Know how to win close games and they’ll fancy their chances, although I think they’ll just miss out.
LISA FIAOLA CUP
1. CENTRAL COAST (4-0, 10pts, +180)
Run home: Canberra (H), Cronulla (A), Manly (A), Illawarra (H)
One of the two dominant forces in this competition who will start heavy favourites in their remaining games. Their strong differential means they can probably have one slip up on the run home and still finish in the top two.
2. CANTERBURY (4-0, 10pts, +170)
Run home: South Sydney (H), Newcastle (A), St George (H), Parramatta (A)
The other standout team, although they have a slightly trickier run to the finals than the Roosters. Away games to top-four teams Newcastle and Parramatta will give them a good test coming into the post-season, but they’re just about must-win to ensure they finish top-two.
3. PARRAMATTA (4-0, 10pts, +88)
Run home: Penrith (H), Wests Tigers (A), Illawarra (H), Canterbury (H)
Have had a favourable draw to this point but to their credit they’ve made the most of it and looked very good this season. Things get tougher with their last three games against teams in the top-six, plus a key clash with Penrith this week who will be up for this game.
4. NEWCASTLE (4-1, 8pts, +50)
Run home: St George (H), Canterbury (H), Cronulla (H), BYE
Two wins in their remaining three games locks in a finals spot and you would have to back them in to do just that. A bye in the final round emphasises the urgency in those games as they don’t want their fate in the hands of other teams.
5. WESTS TIGERS (3-2, 6pts, +62)
Run home: BYE, Parramatta (H), North Sydney (H), Cronulla (A)
With a solid points differential they can afford to drop their game to Parramatta after a bye in round six. Doing that could open the door for a winner-takes-all clash with the Sharks in the final round. They’ve shown enough to suggest they’ll play finals.
6. ILLAWARRA (2-2, 6pts, +30)
Run home: Cronulla (H), Manly (H), Parramatta (A), Central Coast (A)
They simply must win their next two and you’d suggest knock off either Parramatta or the Central Coast to be featuring in the finals. Their best is good enough, but I’d have them just missing out at this point.
7. CRONULLA (2-2, 6 pts, +24)
Run home: Illawarra (A), Central Coast (H), Newcastle (A), Wests Tigers (H)
They have the toughest run home of any side with all four games against top-six opposition. It means they’ll have well and truly earned their spot in the finals, and a win this week will see them move up into the six, a position they will be looking to hold onto.
8. PENRITH (3-2, 6 pts, +16)
Run home: Parramatta (A), South Sydney (A), BYE, St George (A)
Three wins to their name puts them in very good stead to make a run to the finals. If they can beat Parramatta this week they’re almost a lock to make it. Even if they don’t, games against two bottom teams and a bye should be enough to see them advance.
9. CANBERRA (1-3, 4 pts, -18)
Run home: Central Coast (A), North Sydney (H), South Sydney (A), Manly (A)
To get to five wins they’ll need to win the rest of their games, a task which includes ending Central Coast’s winning run. I can’t see it happening.
SG BALL CUP
1. CANBERRA (5-0, 10pts, +58)
Run home: Parramatta (A), Melbourne (A), St George (A), Wests (H)
If they can head to Parramatta and return home with the two points they will go a long way to securing a vital top-two spot. I think they can get that win and will prove awfully hard to beat for any team on the run to the finals.
2. PARRAMATTA (4-1-0, 9pts, +48)
Run home: Canberra (H), Wests (A), North Sydney (H), Manly (A)
If they can get past this weekend with their unbeaten run intact they have a relatively soft draw for the remainder of the season after Wests. I think third spot looks their most likely finishing position.
3. SOUTH SYDNEY (4-1, 8pts, +114)
Run home: North Sydney (H), Penrith (A), New Zealand (H), Canterbury (A)
Returned to form last week and they have a very favourable draw to finish the season along with the best differential in the competition. They should be making the top-two from here and will be tough to beat off a first-round bye.
4. BALMAIN (4-1, 8pts, -6)
Run home: Canterbury (H), Syd Roosters (H), Cronulla (A), Illawarra (H)
Were low flying until a huge defeat at the hands of the Rabbitohs. They need an immediate bounce-back against the Bulldogs before games against three teams who are desperate for wins in order to advance. Should fall into the six.
5. CANTERBURY (3-1-1, 7pts, +34)
Run home: Balmain (A), Newcastle (A), Syd Roosters (A), South Sydney (H)
A tough run home and their halves being moved up to Jersey Flegg will make the next month of football a tough one for the Bulldogs. The development of their players is paramount, but I think it will result in them dropping out.
6. MELBOURNE (3-2, 6pts, +66)
Run home: Penrith (H), Canberra (H), Newcastle (H), Cronulla (A)
What a story this would be if Melbourne could defy the odds to make the finals, especially after starting the year 0-2. I think the fairytale falls inches short however with some good teams below them having better runs to the finals.
7. CRONULLA (3-2, 6pts, +44)
Run home: Syd Roosters (H), Manly (H), Balmain (H), Melbourne (H)
Have been handed one of the best home draws we’ve seen with seven of their nine games in Cronulla. Can they take advantage of that? With the challenging draw to finish the season I have them just outside the top eight.
8. ILLAWARRA (3-2, 6pts, -4)
Run home: St George (H), North Sydney (H), Penrith (H), Balmain (A)
Were given a reality check by the Magpies but have the troops to be able to turn things around. They will win their next three games and that will go a long way to seeing them move up into the six.
9. SYD ROOSTERS (2-1-1, 5pts, +38)
Run home: Cronulla (A), Balmain (H), Canterbury (H), New Zealand (A)
Two narrow defeats has seen them drop from fourth to ninth in the space of a fortnight, but they can turn it around in a big way. Have the personnel to make a charge for the finals and they will win enough games to progress.
TARSHA GALE CUP
1. CANTERBURY (4-0, 10pts, +72)
Run home: South Sydney (H), Newcastle (A), St George (H), Parramatta (A)
Every sign they’ve shown so far has been a positive one as they continue to build one of the best female nurseries in the game. They’ve been exceptional to this point and with their draw they should be taking out the minor premiership.
2. PARRAMATTA (3-1, 8pts, +102)
Run home: Penrith (H), Wests Tigers (A), Illawarra (H), Canterbury (H)
The ‘easiest’ game on their run home is against Penrith who has a positive record and desperately needs to win this fixture to keep their hopes alive. They’ll have to earn a top-two spot the hard way. I think they’ll fall out of second, but still progress.
3. CRONULLA (3-1, 8pts, +82)
Run home: Illawarra (A), Syd Roosters (H), Newcastle (A), Wests Tigers (H)
Three of their four games are against top-six sides and the other is Newcastle’s finals game of the regular season as they look to push for the finals. After what they did to Parramatta you’d suggest they will make the six, but there is no room for error with their schedule.
4. SYD ROOSTERS (3-1, 8pts, +78)
Run home: Canberra (H), Cronulla (A), Manly (A), Illawarra (H)
A few tricky games on their run to the finals but there is a lot to like about this side and they way they go about things. They can extend their winning run to seven and surge their way into a first-round finals bye.
5. ILLAWARRA (3-1, 8pts, +62)
Run home: Cronulla (H), Manly (H), Parramatta (A), Syd Roosters (A)
One of the toughest runs on the road to the finals with three of their four games against teams above them on the ladder. Two wins is likely enough to guarantee them a chance to defend their title, which you would back them to find a way.
6. WESTS TIGERS (4-1, 8pts, +40)
Run home: BYE, Parramatta (H), North Sydney (H), Cronulla (A)
Four wins on the board is good heading into a bye. Two wins from their remaining three games is enough to advance and they have the roster that can do just that. Will be a threat in the finals.
7. NEWCASTLE (3-2, 6pts, +42)
Run home: St George (H), Canterbury (H), Cronulla (H), BYE
There’s a good chance they end the round in the six with their solid differential, but there is no doubt they have to win all three games to give themselves a shot with a last round bye. Their draw is too tough for mine.
8. PENRITH (3-2, 6pts, +12)
Run home: Parramatta (A), South Sydney (A), BYE, St George (A)
Quite simply they must find a way to beat Parramatta this weekend. If they can, they will be favourites to make the finals with a good run from that point onwards. I think the Eels present too much of a challenge however.
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Originally published as NSWRL Junior Reps: Run to the finals for every contender in Matts, Fiaola, Ball and Gale Cup
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