NSWRL Junior Reps: Run to the finals for every contender in Matts, Fiaola, Ball and Gale Cup

Just one round remains before the NSWRL Junior Reps finals get underway. We crunch the numbers and examine every scenario as to how your team can qualify.

Tom Summer and the Eels are on top in SG Ball. Picture Warren Gannon Photography

The run to the NSWRL Junior Reps finals has just one round remaining for teams to earn their spot in the next phase of the competition.

We crunch the numbers ahead of every remaining round to determine who will be there in the post-season and who will be watching from the sidelines.

HAROLD MATTHEWS CUP

1. NEW ZEALAND (6-1, 14pts, +62)

Run home: Syd Roosters (H)

Best: 1st

Worst: 6th

Incredible to think the team coming first heading into the last round can head into the finals in sixth. That’s how close this competition is.

Tricky game to finish the year. If they lose by six or more they can drop out of the four.

2. ILLAWARRA (6-1, 14pts, +58)

Run home: Balmain (A)

Best: 1st

Worst: 6th

Sit just four points behind New Zealand on differential, meaning a big win can see them move into top spot. A win guarantees a top-two finish.

3. CENTRAL COAST (5-2, 12pts, +94)

Run home: Penrith (A)

Best: 1st

Worst: 8th

A win ensures top four, while losses to any of the above sides sees them rise. Needing to keep their differential above the Roosters.

4. SYD ROOSTERS (5-2, 12pts, +88)

Run home: New Zealand (A)

Best: 1st

Worst: 8th

Similar to the Central Coast. The only way they can climb over them is to overturn the differential.

5. MANLY (5-2, 12pts, +56)

Run home: Parramatta (H)

Best: 1st

Worst: 8th

A win guarantees them a top-four finish with the Roosters and Warriors facing off.

6. NEWCASTLE (6-2, 12pts, +56)

Run home: BYE

Best: 1st

Worst: 8th

Guaranteed two points. Praying for losses to New Zealand (six or more) and Illawarra (two or more) to leapfrog them. Will overtake Central Coast, Sydney and Manly if they lose.

7. SOUTH SYDNEY (4-3, 10pts, +32)

Run home: Canterbury (A)

Best: 3rd

Worst: Miss

A loss opens the door for any of Cronulla, Canberra or North Sydney to overtake them. Need a 36-point differential swing and a host of results to go their way to finish top four.

8. PARRAMATTA (4-3, 10pts, +22)

Run home: Manly (A)

Best: 3rd

Worst: Miss

Same as the Rabbitohs - a win sees them in the finals. Cronulla is just 14 points in differential behind them, so a heavy defeat could see them miss out.

9. CRONULLA (3-4, 8pts, +8)

Run home: St George (A)

Best: 7th

Worst: Miss

Their easiest path to the finals is a big win over St George and hoping Parramatta or South Sydney lose. If both of those teams win, they miss out.

10. CANBERRA (3-4, 8pts, -14)

Run home: Melbourne (A)

Best: 7th

Worst: Miss

Need to win, hope Cronulla and North Sydney lose, and need Souths or Parramatta to lose, while overturning a points differential.

11. NORTH SYDNEY (3-4, 8pts, -22)

Run home: Wests (H)

Best: 7th

Worst: Miss

Need to win, hope Cronulla and Canberra lose, and need Souths or Parramatta to lose, while overturning a points differential.

The Raiders remain alive in the Lisa Fiaola Cup. Picture: Martin Ollman

LISA FIAOLA CUP

1. CANTERBURY (6-0, 14pts, +282)

Run home: St George (H), Parramatta (A)

Best: 1st

Worst: 3rd

Up in the air when the postponed fixture will be played. One win from their two remaining games locks them in top spot.

2. CENTRAL COAST (6-1, 14pts, +258)

Run home: Illawarra (H)

Best: 1st

Worst: 3rd

A win locks in a top-two position. If they lose and Parramatta win, they drop to third.

3. PARRAMATTA (6-1, 14pts, +138)

Run home: Canterbury (H)

Best: 1st

Worst: 4th

Locked into the top four. Can still finish first if Canterbury and Central Coast lose their remaining games.

4. WESTS TIGERS (5-2, 12pts, +90)

Run home: Cronulla (A)

Best:

Worst:

A win means they will come fourth. A loss will see them drop out of the four.

5. CRONULLA (5-2, 12pts, +44)

Run home: Wests Tigers (H)

Best: 4th

Worst: 7th

Their clash against the Tigers is a shoot-out for the top four. If they lose they will likely finish in seventh.

6. NEWCASTLE (5-3, 10pts, +44)

Run home: BYE

Best: 5th

Worst: 7th

There won’t be too much movement. Hoping for a Tigers win to leapfrog Cronulla and for St George to beat Penrith.

7. PENRITH (4-3, 10pts, +34)

Run home: St George (A)

Best: 5th

Worst: Miss

Need to win by 11 or more to overtake Newcastle. Can climb above the Tigers or Cronulla, depending on points differential. A heavy defeat risks them losing their spot to Canberra.

8. ILLAWARRA (3-4, 8pts, +30)

Run home: Central Coast (A)

Best: 7th

Worst: Miss

A win likely ensures their spot in the eight. A loss and Canberra win means they are eliminated.

9. CANBERRA (3-4, 8pts, +6)

Run home: Manly (A)

Best: 7th

Worst: Miss

They’re praying for Central Coast to knock off Illawarra, simply meaning a win over Manly is enough for them to qualify. If Illawarra wins, they need to turn around the points differential.

Melbourne is in the box seat for a top-four finish. Picture: Julian Andrews

SG BALL CUP

1. PARRAMATTA (7-1-0, 15pts, +118)

Run home: Manly (A)

Best: 1st

Worst: 2nd

A win keeps them in top spot. A loss and Rabbitohs win drops them to second.

2. SOUTH SYDNEY (6-1-1, 13pts, +190)

Run home: Canterbury (A)

Best: 1st

Worst: 3rd

Need to win and Parramatta lose to finish on top. A loss and Canberra win means they drop to third.

3. CANBERRA (6-2, 12pts, +76)

Run home: Wests (H)

Best: 2nd

Worst: 6th

A win keeps them in third at least while they risk dropping as low as sixth if they lose to Wests.

4. SYD ROOSTERS (5-1-2, 11pts, +95)

Run home: New Zealand (A)

Best: 3rd

Worst: 6th

Can lock up a spot in the top four with a win. A loss sees them drop out of the four.

5. ILLAWARRA (5-1-2, 11pts, +58)

Run home: Balmain (A)

Best: 3rd

Worst: 8th

Can move into the four if Canberra or the Roosters lose and they win (points differential for Canberra).

6. CRONULLA (5-3, 10pts, +81)

Run home: Melbourne (H)

Best: 3rd

Worst: Miss

Can climb up to third with a win and losses to two of Canberra, the Roosters and Illawarra. If they lose and Balmain and Canterbury win, they are out.

7. MELBOURNE (5-3, 10pts, +78)

Run home: Cronulla (A)

Best: 3rd

Worst: Miss

Can still climb as high as third if a host of results go their way. A loss and wins by Canterbury and Balmain see them eliminated.

8. BALMAIN (5-3, 10pts, -40)

Run home: Illawarra (H)

Best: 5th

Worst: Miss

A win guarantees they make finals. A loss and a win from Canterbruy, Wests or Newcastle means they are out.

9. CANTERBURY (4-1-3, 9pts, 0)

Run home: South Sydney (H)

Best: 6th

Worst: Miss

Pretty simple equation. If they win they are in. If they lose they miss out.

10. WESTS (4-4, 8pts, +14)

Run home: Canberra

Best: 7th

Worst: Miss

Need to win and hope Canterbury, Balmain and Newcastle lose for them to make it.

11. NEWCASTLE (4-4, 8pts, +14)

Run home: St George

Best: 7th

Worst: Miss

Need to win and hope Canterbury, Balmain and Wests lose for them to make it.

Tyra Ekepati and the Roosters are currently in seventh. Picture: Sue Graham

TARSHA GALE CUP

1. CANTERBURY (6-0, 14pts, +124)

Run home: St George (H), Parramatta (A)

Best: 1st

Worst: 2nd

One win from their two remaining games keeps them on top.

2. ILLAWARRA (6-1, 14pts, +82)

Run home: Syd Roosters (A)

Best: 1st

Worst: 4th

There’s a path to first, but can’t drop out of the top four.

3. WESTS TIGERS (5-2, 12pts, +58)

Run home: Cronulla (A)

Best: 2nd

Worst: 5th

As long as Parramatta doesn’t win, they will finish in the top four.

4. PENRITH (5-2, 12pts, +24)

Run home: St George (A)

Best: 2nd

Worst: 5th

A win locks in the top four. Can only miss if they lose and Parramatta wins.

5. PARRAMATTA (4-3, 10pts, +100)

Run home: Canterbury (H)

Best: 3rd

Worst: 8th

Need a win and for the Tigers and Penrith to lose to open their path to the top four. A loss means they can finish as low as eighth.

6. SYD ROOSTERS (4-3, 10pts, +96)

Run home: Illawarra (H)

Best: 3rd

Worst: 8th

A loss and they finish as high as seventh. If they win and two of Tigers, Penrith or Parramatta lose, they finish in the four.

7. CRONULLA (4-3, 10pts, +82)

Run home: Wests Tigers (H)

Best: 3rd

Worst: 8th

If they win and two of Parramattta, Penrith or the Roosters lose they can move into the four.

8. NEWCASTLE (5-3, 10pts, +52)

Run home: BYE

Best: 4th

Worst: 8th

Will be sitting and watching, hoping Penrith, Parramatta and the Roosters lose to give them a path to the top four.