SuperCoach Plus Article: Is it time to Turbo-charge your season?
We’ve words of warning about popular buy Tom Trbojevic, a sneaky bye buy and more in this week’s article for SuperCoach Plus subscribers.
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1. It’s Turbo time – isn’t it?
Yes I think it is. After a lengthy stint out of the game nursing injured hamstrings – and racing up the Corso – Tom Trbojevic hasn’t eased his way back into the NRL, he’s returned at his barnstorming best. Opening with a 116 point game in 72 minutes, Turbo backed that up with 118 points in just 64 minutes. Now 117PPG average pretty impressive, okay it’s very impressive, but if Trbojevic had stayed on the paddock for the full 80 minutes of each game, maintaining his point production, then we’d be talking 139PPG. Sure, the second game was against a Wests Tigers team that featured some of the most deplorable defensive edge effort of recent times but you can only play the team in front of you right. And I hear you trade naysayers talking about Penrith being on the horizon.
The same Penrith that has conceded just 44 points in seven matches. The very same Panthers outfit that is defending the fullback position like no other conceding an average of just 37PPG to the position. Yeah that’s a worry. What isn’t a worry is Trbojevic’s history against Penrith. The Manly fullback has played the Panthers seven times for an average of 71PPG. That’s 71PPG including Turbo’s second NRL game in which he scored -2, yes negative 2. Since then Trbojevic has rattled off scores of 83, 68, 69, 130, 86 and 68 against Penrith. Of course while I’m throwing numbers at you it would be remiss not to note that Trbojevic last played Penrith in round 20, 2018 with injuries preventing him from facing the Panthers in 2019 and 2020. That is a lot of numbers. Those numbers suggest you probably shouldn’t trade in Trbojevic this week because, you know, Panthers are defensive beasts. But I’m doing it because, you know, Trbojevic is an offensive beast – but I do so expecting 60-65 points not 100-110.
2. How much would you benefit from Hynes sight?
While Ryan Papenhuyzen (shoulder) is out the fullback job at the Storm falls to Nicho Hynes and he is a proven winner at the position. In 2019/20 Hynes has had five starts at fullback scoring 102, 30, 91, 53 and 98: I’ll save you the calculator – it equates to an average of 74.8PPG. Papenhuyzen is out this week and it would not shock if he misses round eight either and then Origin selection is a definite possibility so let’s assume Hynes deputises at fullback for round 13. Round eight against the Sharks is a ‘plus’ matchup, round nine against the Rabbitohs a ‘minus’. Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that the plus and minus equal out and Hynes averages 75 across the two. If he does SC Plus tells us that Hynes’ price will jump around $130K to $430k. Then Papenhuyzen returns and Hynes reverts to a bench role for rounds 10-12. Let’s give him 25PPG over that span which would see him drop a chunk of profit and be priced around $370K (still $75K more than he is now). But then it’s back to fullback for the crucial first bye in round 13 – against the Panthers which is a ‘minus’ matchup but it will be an Origin depleted Penrith to be fair and I’ll give Hynes 60PPG there which would be enough to hold his value. So is he a buy? Yeah probably. If my guesstimates hold up then buying Hynes now and holding over the next six rounds would see you get 1. a 50PPG average, 2. a crucial Rd 13 bye number and 3. $75K profit – all for a little under $300K. That’s not too shabby…
3. Far out, Fifita is on fire
David Fifita has scored 143 points more than any other player in KFC SuperCoach NRL. This is no shock when you consider that on top of his very solid base of 46PPG Fifita has:
* the most tackle busts,
* the equal second most tries, and
* the equal third most offloads of any player in the NRL.
Which all begs the question, if you don’t have Fifita in your team, should you be finding the rather astronomical $851,700 required to bring him in? The answer to that is - maybe. Because it’s an awful lot of money and Fifita is already in 47% of teams so he’s no POD. But the big man is also pumping out a very replicable 70-80PPG in work and power stats so while the tries cannot continue at this rate, there is still every chance he finishes well clear of not just any player at his position but any player in the league.
4. Brian To’o is breaking new ground for CTW
It’s fair to say that To’o has elevated his game into elite status in the NRL, but especially for KFC SuperCoach. No genuine centre/wing option in recent memory, or ever, has put up the types of numbers that ‘Bizza’ is while scoring just four tries, without being a dual position backrower. If you looked solely at his base and base attack numbers, To’o would be averaging 57.7 points per game, a number which would see him as the 14th highest averaging CTW so far this season – a ridiculously high floor to coin a favourite saying of mine! Any winger who can make 27 runs in a game deserves all the respect you can give.
5. Brett Morris could genuinely threaten the tryscoring record this season
He’s played just six games, sits on a ridiculous KFC SuperCoach average of 100 points per game, and has scored 11 tries plus set up another try and contributed to one more – that’s more than two tries per game that he has scored himself or otherwise made a significant contribution to! He’s also getting his hands dirty, averaging 47.7 points per game in base and base attack, so his average is not purely as a result of him sitting at the end of a potent Roosters backline. Not even losing Teddy or half the forward pack seems to be able to slow down ‘BMoz’… perhaps Father Time is the only thing that can, eventually, but so far in 2021, BMoz is winning that battle too!
6. Keaon Koloamatangi says hi
Koloamatangi announced his presence to the NRL in emphatic fashion, ensuring that commentators and podcasters alike will have to practice saying his name so that it rolls off the tongue. He had a fantastic day out against the Titans, playing the full 80 minutes on the left edge and showing out with his best workrate yet (70 points in base and base attack), as well as showing off his attacking prowess as well with two try assists after two line breaks. Its safe to say that these types of numbers are an anomaly for now, but it shows that he can do it, and not every player is capable of these types of numbers. Let’s hope we see plenty more of this in the coming year or years!
7. Josh Schuster has great attacking upside
This wasn’t really a huge shock to anyone but it’s no coincidence that with the return of Tommy Turbo, we’re seeing Schuster have more and more opportunities to score attacking stats. In the two games they’ve played together, Schuster has scored two of his three highest scores this year, and it looks like it could continue as they build a combination on that left hand side. Schuster is also averaging a respectable 51.3 points per game in base and base attack stats – a number which isn’t bad as far as 80 minute edge backrowers go, but considering that he’s available at five eighth only for KFC SuperCoach, that floor is elite and it may mean that Schuster could be an indefinite hold for as long as Tommy Turbo is healthy.
8. Sam Walker is pretty, pretty good
He looks almost scarily small on the field but Sam Walker can play footy, and he appears to be able to play above his weight at the moment. His smaller frame means that he’s less likely to rack up those base stats (too much tackling or taking hits when running can’t be good for you at that size) but his vision and read of the game already seems to be developing to an elite level, making attacking stats extremely easy for him. He’s currently averaging 54.5 points per game (across four games) in major attacking stats – an incredible number for any player, let alone a four game rookie filling in for an injury-ravaged Roosters outfit. The goalkicking helps significantly with his low floor, and as long as he holds onto the kicking, Sam Walker is an easy, every-week play in our KFC SuperCoach teams.
9. Tom Starling deserves more game time
Readers from last year will remember how much I raved about Tom Starling, and for KFC SuperCoach purposes he is absolutely potent whenever he gets the opportunity. I’ve described him as ‘Damien Cook lite’ but at this rate, Starling could be just as good as Cook, if given the same circumstances. He played 72 minutes this past week and scored 90, with 48 points being in base and base attack stats and the other 32 points coming through a line break assist, a line break and two try assists. The Raiders also looked sharper with him steering them around the park, but the shadow of Josh Hodgson looms. If there’s any long-term injury or confirmation of a change of role for Hodgson, Starling deserves immediate attention from KFC SuperCoaches!
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Originally published as SuperCoach Plus Article: Is it time to Turbo-charge your season?
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