KFC SuperCoach teams analysis round 8: Judiciary break for top cheapie Josh Curran

KFC SuperCoaches finally have some good news with arguably the top cheapie this week receiving a reprieve at the judiciary.

WINNERS

* Josh Curran – Downgraded at the judiciary and FREE TO PLAY. This is obviously enormous news as Curran looms as one of the better cheapies this season after setting up a first-week rise of $67,000. Apart from the sin-binning last week, Curran has played every available minute of his two games this year with an extraordinary pure base of 55. It’s a very small sample size, but it’s elite KFC SuperCoach output for the stat. For reference, teammate Tohu Harris is considered one of the game’s best base stat beasts and he averages 60 in pure base, so Curran’s not far off.

* James Tedesco – Named by the Roosters despite his third concussion in 10 months, but obviously in doubt. The Roosters play the third last game of the round so we may need to make a late call. Not too long ago we were talking about Teddy being a chance of becoming the first million dollar player in KFC SuperCoach. However, a run of quiet games (for him) plus last week’s injury mean he’s now priced at almost half that. With Origin looming, a huge BE of 157 and so many great replacements, it makes sense to sell. But I’m holding because I simply can’t turn down the two cheapies in Jake Simpkin and Josh Curran. Plus Teddy has some amazing match-ups coming against the Cowboys and Broncos.

* Jake Simpkin – Most popular cheapie this round after retaining his hooker spot at the Tigers. There was chat Jacob Liddle would return this week on the bench, meaning limited minutes for Simpkin. But Liddle remains on the reserves list so we can safely lock in another great cheapie. The numbers are impressive. He is set for a $65,000 price rise after averaging 50.5 in 76 minutes. The biggest issue is who to sell.

Josh Curran of the Warriors is free to play this week. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

* Tom Trbojevic – Most popular buy this week by a long way as KFC SuperCoaches move on James Tedesco – and to a lesser extent Ryan Papenhuyzen and Charlie Staines. Turbo has been stunning since his return from a hamstring injury, averaging 117 in the last fortnight. Note though, last week’s game was against the team running equal last and he has a tough match-up this week against the Panthers.

* Reece Walsh – Brilliant on debut, notching two try assists against the traditionally miserly Storm defence for 58 points. This kid is rated alongside Sam Walker as one of the best talents in the game and he showed us why. Playing a mix of fullback and halves (he’s been named in the halves this week), Walsh certainly looked classy and is a serious money-making option at fullback for Teddy or Pap (only available at fullback for KFC SuperCoach). However, base is a massive issue – he scored just five points in pure base last week when negative stats are taken into account. As always, the best bet is always to wait the extra week on cheapies, and there’s definite merit in the tactic of only buying keepers in a red-hot fullback position.

* Sio Siua Taukeiaho – The popular prop is a welcome inclusion for almost 20 per cent of teams after missing last week due to a rib injury. Should win the goalkicking duties back from Sam Walker.

LOSERS

* Tino Fa’asuamaleaui – Out again through suspension and therefore one of the most sold players. A big BE of 111 means rises will be hard to come by when he returns and the 54.5 average places him a fair way behind keeper level. Sell.

* Ryan Papenhuyzen – Out for another week with a shoulder injury and Craig Bellamy says he is touch and go for next round as well. Third most sold player.

* Ryan Matterson – Returns from concussion for the Eels but on the bench. The massive BE of 140 and amazing form of Isaiah Papali’i should lead to huge price drops. In an ideal world, he regains an 80 minute starting spot just in time for the Round 13 bye, at a bargain price.

Ryan Matterson in NSW Cup last week. Picture: Dylan Coker

RAIDERS

Team news: Big guns Jarrod Croker (shoulder, 1-2 weeks) and Josh Papalii (rested) are out. Sebastian Kris shifts to the centres for Croker with Bailey Simonsson (concussion) returning on the wing. Joseph Tapine replaces Papalii in the 17.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Ryan James’ minutes actually dropped as a starter last week to just 34, down on a season average of 42 prior (taking out injury-affected games). He now sits with a BE of 36 and could be sold at any time, although you probably have bigger priorities this week. He doesn’t play the first bye so definitely needs to be sold before then. There are plenty of players on the watchlist at the Raiders including Corey Harawira-Naera, who played the full 80 minutes in his first game of the year, scoring 45 points without any real attacking stats (which we know he is capable of). At $302,300, he could be a money-maker for next week, although he doesn’t cover the first bye. Bailey Simonsson (concussion) is a key inclusion for almost 50 per cent of teams. Here’s hoping he can break his tryscoring duck this week, although it’s a tough game against the Rabbitohs. The Bulldogs in Round 10 is an obvious target game, but the Raiders have a tough run otherwise. See Caleb Aekins analysis above.

RABBITOHS

Team news: Same 17 that accounted for the Titans, with Benji Marshall remaining at five-eighth and Cody Walker at fullback following Benji’s heroics. Tevita Tatola (concussion) must pass protocol. Braidon Burns (patella tendon) returns through NSW Cup.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Cody Walker played fullback last week and it basically made no impact on his KFC SuperCoach scores. He and Benji struck up a great combination on the left. Benji scored the big stats last week but it could easily be Walker in weeks to come. Even with the tough draw (Raiders, Storm, Panthers and Eels before Origin) he’s a definite hold, especially given his penchant of going large against the better teams.

STORM:

Team news: George Jennings (concussion) has been ruled out given the tight five-day turnaround with Tom Eisenhuth coming into the side at centre and Reimis Smith switching to the wing. Nelson Asofa-Solomona (concussion) also misses the squad. Fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen (shoulder) is again out and could miss next week too. Ryley Jacks and Chris Lewis join the bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Nicho Hynes is the seventh most purchased player. He notched a brilliant 98 last week at fullback in place of the injured Ryan Papenhuyzen and now sits with a BE of -5, with dual CTW/FLB flexibility to boot. With Pap’s injury, Hynes likely has another two weeks at fullback and then presumably covers round 13 either in place of Cameron Munster at five-eighth or Pap at fullback. Hynes will be an SC gun at some stage in his career, but the near-$300,000 price tag is rather awkward for now. The only player within cooee of Nathan Cleary at halfback is Jahrome Hughes, who has averaged 67 including two tons in a row. Intriguing option for the first bye, assuming Cleary plays for the Blues. See Ryan Papenhuyzen analysis above.

SHARKS:

Team news: Big changes. Former Origin and Test star Will Chambers will make his club debut at centre with Josh Dugan dropped. Wade Graham (head knock) and Aiden Tolman (suspension) are also big inclusions. Graham’s return in the back row pushes Teig Wilton to the bench and Billy Magoulias to reserves. Tolman’s return at prop pushes Braden Hamlin-Uele to the bench. Matt Moylan (quad) has been named on the extended bench after a late withdrawal last week.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Matt Moylan was a late withdrawal last week due to a quad injury and he remains one of the most sold players as KFC SuperCoaches pivot to Jake Simpkin (via Connor Watson). With Moylan’s BE at a hefty 57 and Shaun Johnson returning last week, the trade makes absolute sense. Teig Wilton is the gift that keeps giving, holding a near-keeper 60.6 average over his first five games despite stints in the outside backs. The base of nearly 50 points a game is particularly impressive. That said, with Wade Graham back this week and no round 13 coverage, the fun will end soon. But by then owners are looking at a rise of almost $200,000.

BRONCOS

Team news: Anthony Milford has been given one final chance to save his Broncos career as coach Kevin Walters rolls out Brisbane’s 17th scrumbase pairing in four years in Friday night’s derby against the Titans. The confusing game of halfback musical chairs at the Broncos has hit overdrive with Walters axing Tom Dearden and Brodie Croft following their insipid scrumbase display in last week’s 46-6 loss to the Eels in Darwin. That has opened the door for Milford to partner Tyson Gamble for the Titans clash at Suncorp Stadium in the latest scrumbase experiment for the Broncos, who have road-tested 16 other combinations since 2017. Just 24 hours after his decision to defect to the Cowboys next season, Dearden will make way in the No. 7 jumper for Gamble, whose fourth NRL game is sweet reward for his slick form at feeder club Norths Devils in the Intrust Super Cup. Jesse Arthars returns from illness and comes into the centres for David Mead. Alex Glenn (calf) is out for up to a month.

Full story by Peter Badel

KFC SuperCoach analysis: The Broncos are complete junk in actual NRL but remain very relevant for KFC SuperCoach. With a thin roster, they rely so much on Payne Haas and Tevita Pangai and both therefore sit in the top 10 most popular players this week. Haas is as safe as they come, notching 58 in pure base this year, although he appears to have shelved the offload in 2021. It’s a completely different story for Pangai, who has thrown 22 offloads this year. After playing limited minutes in the middle to start the season, he’s played 80 minutes on the edge for the last fortnight and averaged 80 points. Admittedly, there are two tries in those scores, but the bottomed-out price of $534,600 is very low for a player of his KFC SuperCoach potential. Early-season cheapies Jordan Riki, Tesi Niu and David Mead are definite sells for those who haven’t already.

TITANS

Team news: Patrick Herbert (calf) is out. He is replaced at centre by Phillip Sami who moves in from the wing, with Anthony Don (hip) returning on the flank. Sam Lisone (pectoral) is expected to miss six weeks with Herman Ese’ese coming onto the bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: David Fifita is 143 points clear at the top of the points leaderboard – ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY THREE POINTS. That’s two games worth of points even for the top keepers. Well done to those who got on. But for those who didn’t, the horse has bolted given the $851,700 price tag and looming Origin period. As a non-owner, my solution is to simply not watch Titans games. Corey Thompson is on fire, scoring the third most points of any CTW but sneaking under the radar at under five per cent ownership. He’s the 10th most purchased player this week, but hard to touch at the massive $601,000 price tag. For reference, Brian To’o is only $20,000 more, David Nofoaluma $50,000 less and Zac Lomax $100,000 less.

PANTHERS

Team news: Apisai Koroisau (thumb/illness) returns after a false start last week with Mitch Kenny dropping out of the 17.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Brian To’o’s base of 40 is simply off the charts for a winger and he sits in the must-have category. Charlie Staines is rightly the second most sold player this week. With a BE of 87 he’s about to start leaking cash again. While I’m convinced he’ll go on a tryscoring run at some stage, the pure base of 13 simply isn’t good enough in what has become a stacked CTW position following the new rules. Despite playing out of position, Matt Burton’s price rises are predicted to surpass $180,000 in the next few weeks, yet he’s only owned by seven per cent.

SEA EAGLES

Team news: Two wins in a row equals no changes for Des Hasler’s side. Curtis Sironen (knee) and Moses Suli (back) remain sidelined despite mooted returns.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Josh Schuster’s price rises are predicted to surpass $300,000 this week. On form, it’s hard to see him being dropped by the Sea Eagles even when Curtis Sironen returns (Sironen again misses out this week). Haumole Olakau’atu definitely pricks the ears as a cheapie. He came off the bench last week and played 50 minutes delivering a linebreak, try assist and six tackle busts. As above, the return of Sironen is an issue, but he has set up a rise of $39,000 and is a genuine alternative if Curran is ruled out. Tom Trbojevic analysis above.

Josh Schuster is on fire for the Sea Eagles. Picture: Gregg Porteous – NRL Photos

BULLDOGS

Team news: Unchanged. Chris Smith, Matt Doorey and Brad Deitz have all been named despite being forced from the field last week. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (leg infection) is considered “touch and go” and has been named on the extended bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Luke Thompson is the only KFC SuperCoach relevant player in this side. He is averaging 51 in base in just 53 minutes and notched a handy $35,400 rise last week.

EELS

Team news: Ryan Matterson (concussion) is a big inclusion, although he’s been named on the bench after failing to oust in-form Isaiah Papali’i from the starting side. Haze Dunster is the new bench utility in place of Will Smith (broken thumb).

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Clint Gutherson is the fifth most purchased player after two tons in a row. He has the Bulldogs, Warriors and Sea Eagles in the next month and has a complete weapon outside him in Maika Sivo. The formula is pretty simple: Guttho gives early ball to Sivo, Sivo scores, Gutho try assist. Gutherson may even cover round 13 given he’s far from an Origin certainty. Speaking of Sivo, he’s the sixth most purchased player, with a BE of -37 and Round 13 coverage. Bryce Cartwright (120) wound back the clock last week with his best score since 2015. He had a try, try assist and two linebreaks. While the sentiment for Carty is still strong within Sangster’s Paradise, the $400,000 price tag is far too much for now.

KNIGHTS

Team news: Unchanged 17, although Lachlan Fitzgibbon (shoulder) and Tex Hoy (hamstring) are lurking in reserves and could return. Wingers Hymel Hunt (hamstring) and Edrick Lee (foot) will both miss at least another week.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Kalyn Ponga is strangely low on the most-purchased list this week despite plenty selling Turbo, Pap and Staines. He has a tough next two weeks (Roosters and Raiders) but then has Tigers, Cowboys and Sea Eagles heading into Origin. Connor Watson is the eighth most sold player as KFC SuperCoaches move to Simpkin. Watson has peaked after a $180,000 price rise (BE 56) and is a very reluctant sell for Sangster’s Paradise given he’s averaged 63. The base of 44 is amazing and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him in 2021 once the natural attacking mojo kicks in.

ROOSTERS

Team news: Huge inclusion with James Tedesco (concussion) named despite a KO last week. Siosiua Taukeiaho (ribs) returns on the bench after missing last week with Fletcher Baker dropping back to reserves. Teen sensation Joseph Suaalii has been named on the extended bench and is closing in on a debut, potentially as a replacement for Tedesco, while Matt Ikuvalu also provides backline cover from the bench.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: It’s impossible to write a KFC SuperCoach column without mentioning Sam Walker, who is coming off 125 including a try, two try assists, 4/6 goals, four tackle busts, a linebreak and six linebreak assists. With his skills and penchant for eyes up footy, he’s a genuine top 17 contender every week, regardless of opposition. See Teddy and Taukeiaho analysis above.

WARRIORS

Team news: Tohu Harris (concussion), Adam Pompey (ankle) and David Fusitu’a (hamstring) return. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been named at fullback with rookie Reece Walsh in the halves, although they switched positions regularly during the game on the weekend. Josh Curran has been named ahead of a judiciary hearing. If successful, Curran is free to play, if guilty he will miss two matches.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Popular SC players Tohu Harris and David Fusitu’a are both back. Harris’s withdrawal was particularly problematic last week given he played late in the round and was one of most purchased players. See Reece Walsh and Josh Curran analysis above.

COWBOYS

Team news: Jason Taumalolo (broken hand) finally returns at lock after successive fractures. Taumalolo will still need to complete the week of training before being cleared to play. Lachlan Burr moves to the bench with Mitchell Dunn (suspension) out of the 17. Jordan McLean has been named despite battling an ongoing hamstring issue.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Valentine Holmes looms as an intriguing POD after averaging mid-70s since switching to fullback. He is available at CTW and in just six per cent of teams. The looming Origin period is clearly a drawback, but head-to-head players should get on. Ben Condon is the gift that keeps giving. I called him a “trap” a few weeks back but reluctantly got on at the last minute. He’s since scored three tries in as many games and KFC SuperCoach Plus predicts his price rises to eclipse $180,000 this week.

DRAGONS

Team news: Skipper Ben Hunt makes his long awaited return from a broken leg, with Jack Bird moving back to centre and Cody Ramsey on the wing. Max Feagai will make his NRL debut with Jordan Pereira and Mikaele Ravalawa suspended, while Josh Kerr returns to backrow after a late switch with Billy Burns in Round 7.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Josh McGuire scored 73 in 60 minutes last week (54 in base stats). With dual position flexibility between 2RF and FRF, he could come in handy for the first bye. Zac Lomax has a BE of 98 and is predicted to drop below $450,000 just before Origin, where he’s only an outside chance given Tommy Turbo needs to fit in somewhere, likely at right centre. However, despite Lomax’s big BE, the time to get on might be now with match-ups against the Tigers and Bulldogs in the next two weeks.

TIGERS

Team news: The Tigers have made mass changes after their embarrassing showing on Anzac Day. Despite breaking his thumb in NSW Cup, Joseph Leilua will replace Michael Chee-Kam in the centres, while Stefano Utoikamanu moves to the bench, Alex Twal moves to prop and Joe Ofahengaue to lock and Luke Garner on the second row. Thomas Mikaele also starts over Zane Musgrove, who has been relegated to the reserves.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Stefano Utoikamanu is the seventh most sold player this week. He dropped $14K last week and has a BE of 60, so the trade makes mathematical sense. That said, it’s a tough decision given he covers the first bye. James Roberts, 18, posted his third score in the teens this season and is leaking cash for the 20 per cent of teams still waiting for him to fire. David Nofoaluma has dropped $114,000 so far and will soon be at a very juicy price for Round 13 bye coverage. See Jake Simpkin analysis above.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach teams analysis round 8: Judiciary break for top cheapie Josh Curran