AFL 2016: What will your team do differently this year?
PRE-season is over and the real footy starts this week. Where will Dane Swan spend most of his time this season? Here’s what can be expected of your club in 2016.
Crows
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WINNING isn’t everything in pre-season but fans want something tangible to get them excited about their team heading into the season proper.
Coaches will insist wins in the NAB Challenge is not the No. 1 priority as they implement new game plans, experiment with different strategies and positional changes, and blood the youngsters.
This year’s NAB Challenge provided some obvious examples of what’s likely to unfold in the home-and-away season.
An unbeaten pre-season has given Melbourne supporters cause for optimism on the back of more offence.
Carlton may not win many games but looks to be more structured under new coach Brendon Bolton.
Patrick Dangerfield’s arrival at the Cattery has brought with it an air of expectation about Geelong and the former Crow is already making a big difference.
And Collingwood used the pre-season series to play Dane Swan more as a forward.
The season gets underway this week and here’s what can be expected of your club in 2016:
ADELAIDE
The Crows were the third best attacking team in the competition but their focus in the off-season has been on becoming defensive specialists.
They were harder to score against in the NAB Challenge, giving up 67 points a game — ranked second — compared to 89.5 points a game in 2015.
New coach Don Pyke has also worked on limiting the damage when his team coughs up the ball. Adelaide conceded the fourth most points from turnovers last year but in the pre-season competition yielded just 36 points from errors, also ranked No.2.
BRISBANE
After being one of four best-and-fairest winners in 2015, don’t be surprised if Mitch Robinson claims the award outright this year.
Robinson was the No. 1 ranked Lion in the NAB Challenge with 113 SuperCoach points per game. The former Blue average 24 disposals, nine contested possession, four clearances and nine tackles.
CARLTON
Brendon Bolton has brought the Hawks’ forward press over to the Blues.
Against the Hawthorn and Sydney, the Blues recorded a time in forward half differential of plus 10min 55 sec a game. Last year they logged a minus 6min 51 sec differential a game.
Carlton also averaged 20.7 forward turnovers, up from 16.6 in 2015, which was the worst in the league.
COLLINGWOOD
While Scott Pendlebury has already indicated he’ll spend most of his time in the middle this season, expect onball partner Dane Swan to have a larger presence up forward.
Swan played 78 per cent of his overall game time in attack during the NAB Challenge, considerably more than last year (31 per cent). He was in the middle for only three centre bounces per game, but in 2015 he started in the centre square for 17 bounces on average.
ESSENDON
With 12 Bombers banned for the year, Zach Merrett looks like he’ll slot in as a permanent midfielder.
The 20-year-old was a consistent performer in the NAB Challenge, averaging 98 SuperCoach points.
FREMANTLE
Nothing much has changed with Ross Lyon’s Dockers — they were as stingy as ever in their pre-season games.
But Michael Barlow is set to play significantly more midfield minutes this season after spending just half his time there last year. And he grabbed his opportunity in the NAB Challenge, averaging 24 disposals, 12 contested possessions, four clearances and 113 SuperCoach points from 90 per cent time in the middle.
GEELONG
Patrick Dangerfield is already having an impact at the Cats and making his presence felt at the stoppages. Geelong averaged five more clearances than their opponents in the NAB Challenge — ranked third — after it was the worst clearance team in 2015. They also averaged 39 points from clearances — ranked fourth.
GOLD COAST
Defender Trent McKenzie is ready to turn potential into performance after his career was at the crossroads last year when he was dropped for poor form and ill-discipline.
McKenzie was Gold Coast’s best player in the NAB Challenge, averaging 122 SuperCoach points from 19 disposals, eight uncontested possessions, eight rebound 50s and two intercept marks per game.
His most prolific SuperCoach year was in 2013 when he averaged 88.6 points a match.
GWS
The Giants intend to be more direct this season after recording their fourth-highest kick-to-handball ratio in the pre-season games, up from 14th last year.
They also kicked long 51 per cent of the time compared to 35 per cent in 2015.
HAWTHORN
The Hawks just keep on keeping and so too is Sam Mitchell.
After an outstanding finals campaign the midfield star doesn’t look like slowing down, averaging 37 disposals, 14 contested possessions, 22 uncontested possessions, six clearances, four inside 50s, and four tackles heading into the new season.
MELBOURNE
It is no secret the Demons will employ a more attacking style this season.
In the NAB Challenge the Dees generated an inside 50m from 24 per cent of chains starting from defensive 50 — up from 20 per cent in 2015 — and from 48 per cent of chains starting across half-back — the second highest of any team and a 10 per cent increase from last year.
NORTH MELBOURNE
The Kangaroos hit the corridor a lot more during the NAB Challenge.
When launching from defensive 50 they played the corridor 24 per cent of the time — the fourth highest percentage of any team.
Last year they used the corridor 17 per cent of the time, which was the fifth lowest in the league.
PORT ADELAIDE
There is plenty for coach Ken Hinkley to worry about as his Power players struggled to get their hands on the ball in their pre-season hit-outs.
They lost the disposal count by 60 per game, contested possessions by 13 and uncontested possessions by 46.
To put that into context, Port Adelaide averaged eight more disposals and 13 more uncontested possessions in 2015 and was only just shaded in contested possessions.
RICHMOND
Running defender Bachar Houli is coming off his best SuperCoach year and the signs are he can elevate his game again in 2016.
The 27-year-old averaged 31 disposals, 26 uncontested possessions, 109 SC points and 599 metres gained, and will be worth every bit of his $516,100 price tag if he can maintain those numbers going.
ST KILDA
The Saints’ approach to stoppages has dramatically improved.
Although they narrowly lost the clearance count in their two practice games the Saints were super effective, generating 40 points per game from stoppages — ranked no. 2 — and 19 points on average from centre bounces — the best in the NAB series. St Kilda was the second worst in both categories last season.
SYDNEY
Callum Mills looms as the best SuperCoach rookie selection with the young Swan averaging 89 points from 19 disposals, 14 uncontested possessions, three tackles and two intercept possessions per games playing mostly across half-back.
WEST COAST
Jeremy McGovern in no longer required to shoulder the Eagles and is free to roam forward regularly.
In his two practice matches McGovern spent almost equal periods in attack and defence, averaging 16 disposals, 12 uncontested possessions and three intercept marks as well as kicking five goals.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Expect the Bulldogs pressure to be unrelenting again 2016. Their surprise success last season was based on forcing opposition turnovers and scoring from them.
The Dogs ranked fourth in the NAB Challenge scoring from turnovers, with 63 per cent of their total score (57 points a game) coming from this source. Last year, 58 per cent of their score was generated from turnovers.
Originally published as AFL 2016: What will your team do differently this year?
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