AFL SuperCoach: Rookie trade guide after Round 4

THERE are four bargain basement defenders ready to explode in SuperCoach — but is now the right time to trade? And who should we dump? ROOKIE TRADE GUIDE + PODCAST

Melbourne football training Ben Kennedy Gosch's paddock Picture:Wayne Ludbey

SUPERCOACH players who stuffed their backlines with rookies before Round 1, take a bow.

While expensive backline stars like Heath Shaw serve up mediocre scores, the cheap defenders are flying; names like Marcus Adams, Jacob Weitering, Matt Dea and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti are often outscoring players who cost $500,000 more.

And there are more where they came from.

SCROLL DOWN FOR OUR RATINGS OF EVERY POPULAR CHEAP PICK AND THIS WEEK’S BUBBLE BOYS

SuperCoach strategy 101 is to pick the best starting line-up with rookies who start super cheap but boom in price on the back of strong on-field performances.

Once these cash cows have fattened up, we can trade them in for another cheap rookie and use the profit (now or later) to upgrade another player to an A-grader. That’s how we transform a grab-bag starting squad into a super team ready to steam into August (SuperCoach finals month). That’s the theory anyway.

Rookies usually take at least six weeks to appreciate in value to the point we consider trading them. This year, however, might be different.

We need to start thinking about trading when a player’s break-even score — the score they need to hit to maintain their current price — and their average collide.

Tom Papley is exhibit A. The Swans forward jumped in price after scoring 100+ in the first two rounds but has run into a brick wall the past two weeks, scoring just 24 last round. If he doesn’t reach his break-even of 62 not only will he stop going up in price, he’ll lose value — not what we want!

Even so, trading only makes sense if (a) you don’t think Papley can bounce back to his early-season form and (b) there is someone to trade him to.

As it happens there are some excellent trade options this week with four players about to rocket in price after their third game. The only problem is they are all defenders.

This is where our dual-position rookies come in. Adams, Tipungwuti and Mitch Brown are all def/fwd eligible — so you can trade out Papley, move one of them to the forward line and bring in a defender on the bubble. Easy!

Carlton defender Jacob Weitering put through his paces at training. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

REGULARS

Doing a great job for our teams. No need to be thinking about trades.

Marcus Adams (WB) $301,800 def/fwd

Lowest score of the year against Carlton was still pretty good. Has gone up almost $200k already but break-even now in positives (9).

Jacob Weitering (Carl) $333,300 def

Rock solid down back for the Blues. Break-even -6 so lots more cash to make.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (Ess) $238,800 fwd/def

Outscored Dangerfield on the weekend, what more can you say? Start him on the field with confidence.

Michael Hartley (Ess) $167,800 def

Still going up in price but bench player only unless you’re really desperate.

Eric Mackenzie (WC) $311,600 def

Safe on-field selection but won’t gain a lot more in price.

Matt Dea (Ess) $293,000 def

Masterstroke pick. Hasn’t scored below 60 yet.

Darcy Parish (Ess) $309,100 mid

If he can keep scoring in the 80s he’ll be worth $400k by Round 10.

Sam Kerridge (Carl) $269,700 mid/fwd

Break-even creeping up (16) but still a great selection.

Mitch McGovern (Adel) $205,300 fwd

Unique selection (in 16,000 teams) is paying off. Outscoring teammate Wayne Milera.

Callum Mills (Syd) $271,800 mid

Sensational last quarter against the Crows boosted his score and kept his break-even low.

PERFECT NINE - THE FUN OF SUPERCOACH IN FIVE MINUTES

ALARM BELLS

Ben Kennedy (Melb) $288,200 mid/fwd

Kicked a great goal against his old team and had 22 touches but efficiency let him down. Break-even of 56 is concerning but back him to make that against the Tigers on Sunday night.

Ryan Davis (GC) $178,900 mid

Hope he keeps his spot after his lowest score of the year. Might not make much more money (break-even 17).

Mitch Brown (Ess) $187,900 def/fwd

Frustrating 116,000 owners but doing just enough. Not the on-field starter we were hoping for but worth keeping on the bench.

Clayton Oliver (Melb) $271,700 mid

His 41 against Collingwood was a season-low so no need to hit the panic button, but keep an eye on his break-even (29).

Connor Menadue (Rich) $209,300 mid/fwd

Likely to continue to get opportunities and his dual-position status is handy. Not going to be a huge cash cow.

Lincoln McCarthy (Geel) $193,900 fwd

Has a super low break-even (-48) we just need Chris Scott to put him back in the team!

TRADE TIME?

Tom Papley (Syd) $223,400 fwd

A dilemma for 90,000 owners. Despite the big red flags he’s unlikely to suffer a massive price drop although West Coast is a tough opponent. The following weeks (Brisbane, Essendon) look better.

Wayne Milera (Adel) $215,200 fwd

Has a break-even of 61, a mark he’s only hit once this year. Gonski.

Nakia Cockatoo enjoys a dip in the pool. Picture: Colleen Petch

BUBBLE BOYS

Have played two games and are poised to jump in price.

Darcy Byrne-Jones (PA) $123,000 def

Has scored 61 and 97 in his two games and has a projected price rise of $73,000 this week. Running defender looks the buy of the week.

Tom Ruggles (Geel) $102,400 def

Thousands jumped on last week and were burnt by a 40 but if he’s picked again this weekend he is still a good buy at bargain basement price. Break-even -57.

Ciaran Byrne (Carl) $123,900 def

Another option down back with scores of 67 and 67 in his two games, so you can’t knock his consistency. Likely to get plenty of opportunities from Brendon Bolton.

Josh Wagner (Melb) $121,900 def

The fourth member of the backline quartet. Nothing wrong with his scores so far (47, 76) if you think he can keep his spot. Break-even is -51.

Daniel Menzel (Geel) $260,600 fwd

Would have scored a lot better than his 66 against Essendon (after 91 the week before) if he had kicked straight (0.5). Now has two good VFL games and two AFL appearances under his belt. Consider.

Nakia Cockatoo (Geel) $172,700 fwd

His 92 against the Bombers caught the eye but he scored only 29 the week before. High risk at a high price.

Plus ...

Nick Kommer, Josh Dunkley and Eli Templeton are also on the bubble but are all behind the players above as SuperCoach options.

Blues recruit Liam Sumner at Princes Park. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

ONE-GAMERS

Keep an eye on these guys who could be trade options next week.

Jayden Hunt (Melb) $123,900 fwd

Scored 40 first-up v Collingwood.

Liam Sumner (Carl) $123,900 mid/fwd

His 45 against the Bulldogs is about standard from his GWS days.

Tom Lee (StK) $123,900 def, 61 v Haw, BE -49

Made some horrible blunders against Hawthorn so a score of 61 is pretty good. Interesting option.

Tim O’Brien (Haw) $123,900 fwd, 72 v StK

The man wearing Buddy’s old number kicked two goals against St Kilda. Might find the going tougher against the Crows.

Originally published as AFL SuperCoach: Rookie trade guide after Round 4