Moneyball: All the latest trade and contract news around the AFL
Sam Draper will exercise his free agency rights at season’s end — but how did it come to this? Plus more on the Charlie Curnow situation, Ryley Sanders’ future and misfiring Dees in Moneyball.
Essendon’s fears over Sam Draper’s longevity played a key part in its decision to offer him a modest contract he will reject to move on as an unrestricted free agent.
The Dons were keen to keep Draper given he was entering his peak as a ruckman and is a popular and engaging character at a club crying out for leaders.
But the Dons only recently improved their financial offer then eventually relented and offered a fifth season, aware he has played only 78 games in nine seasons.
The club knows the AFL will likely change its rules to incentivise leapers in the centre square and while that has been Draper’s strong suit he is coming off an achilles tear.
He has also had an ACL tear and osteitis pubis in a career without a top 12 best-and-fairest finish.
Players with achilles tears often battle calf complaints across their latter seasons and lack durability.
So while the Dons did offer him a fair contract they were determined not to break the bank and compromise their long-term list build.
Clubs continue to push hard to secure free agents despite their lack of longevity, with Jack Silvagni considering St Kilda, Collingwood and the Dogs and Oscar Allen Brisbane-bound.
Allen has a runner-up placing in the 2023 Eagles best-and-fairest but none of those trio will feature in the top 10 of their club’s best and fairest this year.
Allen also has a tenth placing in 2021, while Silvagni also has a tenth placing in the 2021 season.
But the beauty of free agency is that clubs will pay on potential, with Silvagni’s defensive form brilliant this year before succumbing to a groin concern.
Rival player managers fear that the Dons lack ambition in their future vision given the club continues to methodically build through the draft while rivals like Sydney, St Kilda and Port Adelaide chase big fish.
No Bombers’ player drafted to the club has ever won a final and it is hard to see when the next window of opportunity opens up.
But Essendon will stick to its vision, believing if it can get a better run that will allow its top 10 an unfettered run at 2025 it will quickly return to finals contention.
AMARTEY WANTS NO PART IN CURNOW DEALINGS
Sydney forward Joel Amartey wants to stay in the Harbour City and has no interest being a part of any potential discussions connected to Charlie Curnow’s push to leave the Blues.
Other key position Swans Logan McDonald and Hayden McLean are also contracted and don’t see themselves as part of a trade solution that could send the Blues forward north.
Curnow is still keen on a move north after meeting Swans coach Dean Cox before jetting out of Australia post-season on a tour around New York.
There are three key reasons why Curnow wants out. He has clearly gone cold on coach Michael Voss and he is keen on a sea/beach change, but Code Sports also understands his injury prevention or lack thereof also was a key factor in seeking a fresh start elsewhere.
Carlton has been steadfast in its determination that it won’t trade Curnow under any circumstances after the dual Coleman Medal winner told the Blues he wanted to leave at his exit interview last Thursday.
The Swans would have to give up one of its best four players - which they won’t do - to potentially drag the Blues to the negotiating table.
Code Sports understands Carlton was one of a handful of clubs who enquired about Amartey the last time he came out of contract during the 2023 season.
But the 26-year-old, who still has a year to run on his current deal, remains committed to the Swans, despite an injury-interrupted 2025 season.
McDonald is contracted to 2028 and McLean is contracted to 2027, with both keen to stay and not being told they are at risk of a trade at this stage.
Gold Coast has said it is not interested in the Curnow trade and is not prepared to move on any of its academy players including second-year key tall Jed Walter.
The Suns have the most collateral to try to broker a trade given elite ball winner Sam Flanders has been linked to the Saints and Carlton and they have so much talent on their list.
They could also trade a future first-rounder for Curnow if required.
But at this stage they have suggested they have closed the door on the Curnow scenario.
SANDERS STATUS UPDATE
Ryley Sanders’ omission from the club’s round 24 team sets up an intriguing contract year for the Tasmanian-born product, with no talks likely to take place until next year.
The Dogs gave up picks 10, 17 and a future first-rounder to secure Sanders at pick six in the 2023 national draft but the club’s strong midfield meant at times this year he was pushed out to a flank.
After a quiet few weeks he was the sub in round 23 then was dropped altogether in the do-or-die clash against Fremantle.
With one more year on his contract he will be desperate to prove to the Dogs he is worthy of a lucrative extension like fellow Tasmanian Colby McKercher secured in recent months.
McKercher was paid as much as $850,000 a season for a two-year extension that takes him past the first Devils season in 2028 but comes out of contract in 2029.
The Dogs will have to broker a deal with Sanders that retains him but not on silly money, aware that there are more mouths to feed ahead of him in their midfield.
Young emerging prospects Joel Freijah and Jordan Croft are also out of contract next year so the club will be keen to sign them over summer.
MISFIRING DEES
Melbourne has made clear it will only make calls on players with draft collateral when its new senior coach is on deck.
But any efforts to trade out established stars for quality draft picks will be hampered by a set of numbers that screams off the page.
Christian Petracca, Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver and Steven May are all players who on face value might have some trade currency this off-season.
And yet as Champion Data’s numbers reflect, the Demons’ stars all endured torrid seasons on a kicking front that might put off rival suitors.
Prospective coach Nathan Buckley said on Fox Footy’s On The Couch on Monday that he was pitching on things bigger than game plan: “It’s not Xs and Os, the game plan stuff is totally irrelevant.”
But at some stage game style is dictated by a club’s capacity to hit targets.
And on this year’s stats, Melbourne had three of the worst eight midfield kicks in the game.
Based on the kick rating stat which takes into account expected hit rate and degree of difficulty, Clayton Oliver trailed only Willem Drew and Adam Cerra for kick rating.
Christian Petracca was the fifth-worst midfield kick in footy and Jack Viney was the eighth-worst.
Caleb Windsor got some midfield time but the top 10 draft pick was also officially categorised as a poor kick by Champion Data.
So while Xavier Lindsay, Kozzie Pickett and Harvey Langford are the future as excellent kicks, how many terrible kicks can you have in your side?
On ratings points generated from a players’ kicks, no midfielder rated lower than Viney, contracted to 2028.
Oliver did appear to cover the ground much better in the last six weeks and had four 100-ranking point games in that time.
But last year he was the 244th rated player in the AFL and this year he improved only 12 spots to 232.
Given he and Petracca are worth over $1.5m a year in the back end of their contracts, it is hard to see how other sides would believe they are of good value.
Petracca was ranked the 74th best player this season by Champion Data ratings, his lowest rating since 2018.
Steven May, locked in until the end of 2026, played only 16 games but conceded the fifth-most goals in the AFL.
He was often handed the most difficult assignment in a team that had a confused defensive structure.
But only Aliir Aliir (22 games, 49 goals), Ben Miller (23 games, 46 goals), Jacob Weitering (23 games, 46 goals) and Rory Lobb 23 games, 44 goals) conceded more goals and all of them had a better average.
Incoming CEO Paul Guerra, who arrives next week in an official capacity, has said the club will wait to see what the new coach’ game plan needs before deciding who comes in and who might need to be shown the door.
The Demons do need to retain senior players to bring through the next band of kids but after a pair of 14th placed finishes it would seem prudent to try to secure more early draft picks this year to continue that youth-led resurgence.
PIES VETERANS IN CONTRACT LIMBO
Collingwood veterans Jamie Elliott and Brody Mihocek may be forced to wait until after the finals to pick up talks on new deals, but young defender Wil Parker has already ticked off a trigger clause to guarantee him a contract for 2026.
Magpies coach Craig McRae shrugged off any chance that the uncertainty surrounding Elliott and Mihocek could impact the club’s September campaign.
Elliott has enjoyed a season-best campaign booting 52 goals and has had a two-year offer on the table for weeks but is yet to sign.
And Mihocek remains a fulcrum of the Collingwood attack but is yet to come to terms with the club as he looks for more security.
The Pies have taken care of some of the long list of veterans due to finish contracts this year, having recently signed up Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe.
But coach McRae has hinted that Elliott and Mihocek may be on the backburner.
“I think those things just take a natural course,” he said on Tuesday.
“I know many conversations have been held around ‘Hey let’s wait until the season is done and revisit that’. That is pretty common across the competition.
“Those two are really invested to make the most of the day-to-day and week-to-week, I am not concerned about that.”
Will Hoskin-Elliott will retire at the end of the season, Mason Cox and Tom Mitchell face uncertain futures.
Parker looks the likely replacement for the injured Howe for Thursday night’s qualifying final against Adelaide.
The 23-year-old defender was unlucky to be dropped for the last match against Melbourne after a strong performance against Adelaide in the penultimate round.
He has played only eight games across the past two seasons, but it has been enough to strike a trigger to win an extra year next season.
The Magpies have been impressed with his competitive streak and tenacity, which sees him right in the mix to play his first final in what would be only his ninth AFL game.
Cox, 34, has been pushing hard for senior selection again, having not played at AFL level since the round 19 clash with Fremantle.
He will likely have to wait until the end of the season to find out his fate for 2026.
His preference is to remain with the Magpies, but there could yet be interest elsewhere given the ruck merry-go-round that could take place.
NERVOUS WAIT FOR ROOS
Six out-of-contract Kangaroos including former first-round draft pick Will Phillips and forwards Cooper Harvey and Finnbar Maley will have to wait until after the best and fairest count on September 13 — and potentially longer — to find out if they will play on with the club in 2026.
North Melbourne delisted four players at the end of the home and away season but still needs to prune its list across the next month.
Phillips, 23, has played 50 games with the Roos, but could only manage seven this year. He was pick three in the 2020 draft.
Harvey, the son of AFL games record holder Brent Harvey, showed some promise at the back end of the year, playing the last seven matches, with his best performance coming with four goals against Melbourne.
Maley also played seven games this season for the Roos, showing at times that he belonged at the level.
BROTHERLY LOVE
Zach Guthrie has backed in his brother to play on into a 16th AFL season.
Two-time club best and fairest winner and premiership Cat Cam Guthrie is one of 10 unsigned Cats on the eve of the finals series, and while he has managed just four games last season and none this year, his little brother is holding out the slim hope of playing in a finals clash together again.
Cam, 33, has been ravaged by injuries in recent times but made a VFL return last month.
“I’d love him to be out there,” Zach said.
“It’s been a bit of a frustrating few years, really. He’s been hampered by a couple of little things, but he’s in a really good spot at the moment. He was able to get a game against Sydney in the VFL in the back-end of the year and he’s out there doing some good training and is in pretty good shape at the moment. You never wish injuries upon anyone, but he’s doing all he can to be ready for if things happen — he’s one that’s ready to go. He’s proven that he can have an impact at AFL level and at this time of year, he’s played some really good footy as well.
“He’s going about it the right way. I’d love to be a part of it with him — that’s something I’d love to do again, and I’m confident that he’ll keep putting his best foot forward to try and play a part, whether it’s on the field or off the field.”
Zach, who has risen to be a vital part of Geelong’s defence, said he’d “love to play another 10” seasons with Cam.
“I haven’t gone into the specifics (of any contract talk) ... I just know he’s in a good spot at the moment,” he said.
“I’m confident he could (play on for one more). I think he’s still moving around really well, and as long as he’s taking the field and getting that continuity of sessions, I think he can still build to have a real impact in games.”
Originally published as Moneyball: All the latest trade and contract news around the AFL
‘No stadium, no team’: The AFL gambled in Tassie — and won
