Mick McGuane: Brisbane Lions v Carlton preliminary final preview, expert analysis, match ups

The matchups, the tactics and the key tagging role. Mick McGuane breaks down how the Blues can give themselves a red hot crack at making the grand final.

Can Carlton’s magical run continue? Picture: Getty Images

Will the Brisbane Lions continue their unbeaten run at the Gabba this year or can Carlton pull off a mighty upset in Saturday night’s preliminary final?

AFL analyst Mick McGuane has taken a close look at the two teams and what can be expected from them in the game that will decide the second of this year’s grand finalists.

BRISBANE LIONS

THE KEY

Contest and territory.

That is the Lions’ way and in this preliminary final, these two aspects of the Lions’ game must hold up.

At the source contest wins are vital, but post-clearance wins are equally important – particularly at both ends of the ground.

If the Brisbane midfielders lose a stoppage, their defenders must win the ball back in contested situations against the likes of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay.

When they do win the ball back, the Lions will be looking to move it end to end at speed and test Carlton’s team defence.

Conversely, if Brisbane wins clearances it needs to make sure it also wins more than its fair share of contested ball in front of the footy, both in the air and at ground level.

Lachie Neale will play a crucial role in Chris Fagan’s plans. Picture: Getty Images

THE CONCERN

Brisbane’s ball movement against a Carlton side that is in-sync with its team defence.

Given the Blues’ strength around stoppages, the Brisbane defenders led by Harris Andrews and Darcy Gardiner are likely to see a lot of the footy coming their way so it creates opportunities to win it back and then kick start the Lions potent offence.

Since round 14, the Lions have been the best team at converting defensive 50 chains to inside-50 opportunities.

However, over that period Carlton has ranked sixth for defending ball movement, which is why it is still alive in the premiership race.

If there is even a slight drop-off in what is perceived as a strength for Brisbane and it is unable to get flow in its ball movement, the Lions could be tested.

IF I WAS THE LIONS…

With Jack Payne out injured, Darcy Gardiner faces a big job on Carlton’s most dangerous forward in Charlie Curnow, which leaves Harris Andrews to go head to head with Harry McKay.

Keeping the Blues’ twin towers at bay will be a very important aspect of the game.

Lachie Neale can expect to receive some close checking from George Hewett around stoppages, which he should be aware of.

Like Brisbane did in its qualifying final, Neale might have to be moved away from his onball role at times to orchestrate a different match up.

Josh Dunkley has to be the hunter and take on Patrick Cripps to try and take away his first possession game.

I’d try to isolate Charlie Cameron inside-50 and allow his speed and ball-winning ability close to goal to be a factor against Nic Newman, or at times Adam Saad or Alex Cincotta.

Saturating stoppages is a tactic I would employ to minimise losses, by bringing up an extra half-forward or two to work with the two wings and create an outer ring around the contest – particularly for stoppages in the corridor or even wider corridor.

I’d also get all my forwards to push up the ground and get in the line of the ball if the Blues win the footy back at halfback.

This will allow the Lions midfielders to fold back and pop into dangerous space and support the defence by getting in the leading lanes of the likes of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay.

Additionally, if Brisbane generates a turnover the forwards can then slingshot back into an open forward 50 at speed to create scoring opportunities.

Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood are the Lions’ twin towers. Picture: Getty Images

CARLTON

THE KEY

Dominate stoppages, not only between the arcs but also at both ends of the ground.

If the Blues are to win, they must convincingly come out on top in the scores from stoppages department.

Centre bounce wins are always critically important at the Gabba, so the Carlton ruck pairing of Marc Pittonet and Tom De Koning has to stand up against Oscar McInerney and Joe Daniher.

The midfield group of Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, George Hewett and Adam Cerra must also roll their sleeves up in a bid to gain territory and put pressure on the Brisbane defence.

Carlton will also need to bring its best around stoppages at both ends of the ground.

The Lions scored four goals from forward-50 stoppages in their qualifying final win over Port Adelaide, while the Blues went scoreless from forward-50 stoppages in their semi-final against Melbourne.

This could be a point of difference in the game if Carlton does not get it right.

THE CONCERN

Brisbane’s diverse and dangerous forward line.

Carlton is clearly a little battle-weary and if its contest work even slightly suffers as a result of that in the middle of the ground, the Lions will gain territory and give their forwards a chance to dine out.

Defensively Carlton has been fantastic in the second half of this year, but against a fresh Brisbane team at home the Blues will need to be at their absolute best — with a focus on pressuring the Lions’ ball carrier.

If Carlton’s midfielders don’t provide red-hot pressure up the ground, the side’s defenders will be left in two minds about whether to retreat or not and their team defence will fall apart.

If space is left for Brisbane to pierce through, it will do just that and score.

Since round 14, the Lions rank No. 1 in the competition for points for at an average of 95.8 points a game.

They have also ranked No. 1 for points from forward half, at an average of 51.6 points a game.

If the Blues’ pressure is off, Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey, Lincoln McCarthy and Cam Rayner will make them pay.

Charlie Cameron was dominant in the qualifying final. Picture: Getty Images

IF I WAS THE BLUES…

You need to get Lachie Neale put under lock and key.

George Hewett did the job last time these teams met in round 8 and is likely to get it again.

In a big final, Neale simply can’t be allowed to roam free given his ball-winning ability and quality ball use.

Brisbane’s best and most creative midfielder needs to be shut down.

Jacob Weitering is the best match-up for the in-form but at times enigmatic Joe Daniher, who was huge in the qualifying final not only with his five goals but also his ability to win contests in the air and at ground level.

Mitch McGovern will have to take the role on Eric Hipwood, but will need to play him tight.

Hipwood’s initial speed off the mark could create concerns.

Nic Newman needs to be given the challenge to start on Charlie Cameron, even though he has been playing a little higher up the ground in recent weeks to provide some rebound off halfback.

If Newman doesn’t work initially, it has to be a combination of Alex Cincotta and Adam Saad on Cameron, similar to how the Blues handled Melbourne’s Kysaiah Pickett last week.

Up forward, I’d look to ensure Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay get separation so that Harris Andrews cannot help control both of them in the air.

McKay will need to work up the ground to provide an exit option for Carlton’s defence, but that will also take away the zoning off ability of Andrews.

Staying relevant is imperative.

On the wings, Blake Acres and Sam Docherty must be really in-tune to the game and quickly slide back to support their defenders when the Lions win the ball.

Acres and Docherty will need to use their experience to position themselves well as disrupters to the dangerous Brisbane forward line.

REWIND

Round 8, Carlton 11.8 (74) def. by Brisbane Lions 15.10 (100)

Both teams started on fire with five first-quarter goals when these sides last met at Marvel Stadium in May.

But the game was separated in the third quarter, when the Lions won the inside-50 count 14-6 and piled on 5.2 (32) to the Blues 0.2 (2).

Brisbane mastered its forward-half game on the night, generating 30 forward-half intercepts which resulted in a domination of the turnover game.

The Lions scored 85 points from turnovers – which is off the charts.

Carlton’s poor ball use coming out of the back half of the ground contributed to this, but the diverse Brisbane forward line also got to work from a defensive standpoint and capitalised when they did win the footy back.

For the Blues, Tom De Koning was one of many players missing from the line-up that night, while the Lions had important first-year midfielder Will Ashcroft in the team but have since lost him to a season-ending ACL injury.

What can the Blues get out of Harry McKay? Picture: Michael Klein

MICK’S BIG QUESTION

Can Harry McKay stand up under the finals heat?

Big forwards so often have a big impact on games at the pointy end of the year and for Carlton’s twin towers in Curnow and McKay to be available to face Brisbane is a real positive.

McKay returning from concussion will help take some focus off Curnow, who was regularly double-teamed by Melbourne in the semi-final last week and therefore had limited impact.

Providing both McKay and Curnow get good separation and isolation, they could contribute strongly in this preliminary final.

However, the mental demons that have challenged McKay need to be eradicated in a time of need for his side.

He must believe in himself and take his chances when kicking for goal if his side is to be any chance of progressing to a Grand Final.

MICK’S TIP

Brisbane by 38 points.

I have admired Carlton in the way they have won their first two finals, showing great grit and determination. But up against a fit and fresh Brisbane side at home at the Gabba, I can’t see the banged-up Blues winning. The high-scoring Lions have shown this year that they can blow a game wide open with one big quarter of exhilarating footy.

Originally published as Mick McGuane: Brisbane Lions v Carlton preliminary final preview, expert analysis, match ups