AFL Finals 2023 Collingwood v GWS: Mick McGuane’s preliminary final preview and expert analysis
Toby Greene sees the play unfold better than any forward in the AFL, so which Pie goes to him? Mick McGuane analyses who get’s the job and where tonight’s preliminary final will be won.
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Collingwood is a hot favourite to progress to a grand final, but could Greater Western Sydney cause an almighty upset in Friday night’s blockbuster preliminary final?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane takes a close look at the two teams and what will decide the outcome of the match.
COLLINGWOOD
The key
Bring brutality around the footy.
The Magpies should have fresh bodies and hard minds and will look to generate another blitz start like they did against Melbourne in the qualifying final.
They need to ensure as a group that they bring great intensity and an ability to win crucial contests at both ends of the ground, as well as through the middle.
The Giants have been the hardest team to play against in the second half of the season, led by an onball brigade of Kieran Briggs, Callan Ward, Tom Green and Stephen Coniglio.
Collingwood’s onball grouping of Darcy Cameron or Mason Cox in the ruck, with Jordan De Goey, Tom Mitchell, Scott Pendlebury and Jack Crisp, needs to be scene setters when it comes to winning contested ball and controlling the contest.
The concern
The Giants mauled Port Adelaide at stoppages in their semi-final last week and Collingwood can ill afford to cop a similar belting.
GWS recorded season-high differentials for hitouts to advantage (+12), first possessions (+18) and clearances (+15) against the Power, while also scoring a season-high 58 points from clearances.
When they are not winning pure clearances, the Giants are hunting for loose ground balls and have good shape off the contest and quick and clean hands which allow them to do some serious damage offensively.
If Collingwood doesn’t apply great pressure on the Giants ball carrier, as well as shut down their next option, GWS will punish them on the scoreboard.
If I was the Magpies…
Darcy Moore goes to Jesse Hogan in an important match-up against an in-form key forward who has booted 16 goals from his past four games.
Brayden Maynard is the first-choice for Toby Greene.
Maynard can’t afford to ball watch and allow Greene to get goal-side of him, because the Giants skipper reacts to what is happening up the field better than any forward in the competition.
If the Giants win a stoppage or marking contest, Greene will immediately charge forward at speed into dangerous space to be given the ball.
Will Hoskin-Elliott has played a significant role at halfback but I’d look to use him more on the wing and even in attack in this game so he can hit the scoreboard.
Crisp needs to be part of the centre bounce crew and work in tandem with De Goey to try and limit the influence of Tom Green.
The pair must minimise Green’s first possession gains, but also need to push hard forward when Collingwood wins the ball to test Green’s defensive attributes.
I wouldn’t initially use a defensive forward Lachie Whitfield, but if his run and ball use out of defensive 50 becomes an issue then Crisp could be used as to have a defensive mindset for periods.
Coming back from his knee injury, I’d start Nick Daicos across halfback where he can kickstart the Magpies’ offence as an aggressive rebounding defender.
I’d also be giving Daicos the task of taking kick-ins given his strong decision-making skills.
The Magpies defenders need to be very wary of GWS small forwards Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford.
They will often get up the ground to help saturate stoppages, before quickly getting back inside-50.
If the defenders get sucked up to stoppage, they can’t loiter around and need to be prepared to race back into their defensive 50.
GWS
The key
It’s all about pressure and defending the ground for the Giants.
When they last met Collingwood in round 9, their pressure rating was at an all-time low and they recorded just 29 tackles.
That’s laughable.
It was therefore little wonder that they lost that match by 65 points.
GWS is clearly better in those areas now and has ranked as the second-best team defensively since round 13, but it needs to ensure they maintain a high level of intensity and pressure against the Magpies.
If the Giants don’t bring the heat, Collingwood will control the game with its quality outside run and ball use.
The concern
Defending Collingwood’s ball movement.
The Giants have been conceding an average of 54.8 inside-50s a game to their opposition since round 13, which has left them relying on their defensive group to get the job done.
The Magpies were restricted to just 37 inside-50s by Melbourne in their qualifying final and this is something that GWS will look to replicate.
The Giants forwards have to slide up and get to the line of ball when Collingwood wins it back in its defensive half of the ground.
At the same time, the midfielders have to pop into space to cover the short and long 45-degree corridor kicks Collingwood are content to have a crack at – and the defenders have to be assertive in pressing up.
The aim is to create a 70-to-80m bubble around the Magpies’ ball carrier and take away pockets of space which Collingwood would otherwise look to penetrate through.
If I was the Giants…
Sam Taylor starts on Brody Mihocek, which will allow him to position himself 30 to 50m from goal which he often likes to do.
Jack Buckley and Harry Himmelberg are options to rotate on Mihocek at stages, but will also be needed to look after Dan McStay and a resting ruckman in Cox or Cameron.
You have to be conscious of Daicos, not only the player but also his positioning on the ground.
When on a halfback flank, Daicos plays very aggressively in pushing up to the back of stoppages with disregard for his direct opponent.
Whether it is Daniels, Bedford or Xavier O’Halloran who finds themselves on Daicos at times, they must look to challenge him offensively by getting into good spots and making sure they get used after clearance wins.
If you can do that, you could force Daicos to readjust with his positioning.
On the flip side, if Collingwood wins the ball you need to snap into defensive mode with chasing and tackling to take away Daicos’ ball use and creativity.
Lachie Ash needs to pick up Bobby Hill, who has become such a barometer as a small forward for Collingwood.
I’d also look to make the most of my weapon, which is Whitfield.
Get Whitfield to take the kick-ins, while also having him push up to stoppages from halfback for teammates to give him the ball on the outside whenever he is free.
REWIND
Round 9, Collingwood 18.12 (120) d GWS 7.13 (55)
A lot has changed since these two sides last met at the MCG in May.
The Giants were into just their ninth game under new coach Adam Kingsley, Harry Himmelberg started forward, Briggs was in the VFL and Sam Taylor and Greene were on the sidelines through injury.
Collingwood’s ball movement and efficiency going forward was what set it apart.
The Magpies scored from 59 per cent of their inside-50s, compared to the Giants’ 41 per cent.
Collingwood was also able to move the ball from end-to-end with ease and scored 24 points from kick-ins.
It was the biggest score that GWS had conceded to that point of the year, as seven Magpies finished the day with multiple goals.
Despite Matt Flynn shouldering the ruck duties, the one area the Giants troubled Collingwood was in the clearances.
GWS won centre clearances 16-10 and have only improved with their stoppage dominance since.
MICK’S BIG QUESTION
How will Daicos respond after a lengthy lay-off with a knee injury?
Home-and-away games are very different to preliminary finals when the stakes are so high.
And let’s not forget that this will be Daicos’ first game in 48 days.
That sort of preparation is not ideal, no matter who you are or how you prepare.
His Collingwood teammates and GWS opponents are match-hardened — and you need to be in finals.
The Magpies had to bring Daicos back because he is available and he is their best player.
However, it is no certainty that he slots back into the side and performs like he was earlier in the year straight away.
That said, Daicos could prove the game separator.
If he racks up 30 or 35 disposals in his return to get Collingwood across the line, we will be talking about someone who could be the best player in the competition for the next 10 years.
MICK’S TIP
Collingwood by 10 points.
The Magpies have been the best team across the year and I expect them to progress to the premiership decider. As good as the Giants have been in the second half of the season, the point of difference for Collingwood is its strong ball movement and turnover game. I think the Magpies win what should be a close contest.
Originally published as AFL Finals 2023 Collingwood v GWS: Mick McGuane’s preliminary final preview and expert analysis
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