Melbourne’s biggest home and away game of Goodwin era looms in King’s Birthday clash
Simon Goodwin is a man who eyeballs his troops – and he would’ve done so in the wake of Sunday’s horror show. But is personnel the biggest problem? JAY CLARK dives deep into the club’s issues.
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Melbourne’s midfield has lost its crown.
When the Demons won the flag in 2021 belting home a rush of goals from the centre square in the premiership decider, opposition teams wondered in the post season how they could possibly cope with the Demons’ power and brilliance in the middle.
But on the back of straight-sets finals exits, and the club’s worst loss under coach Simon Goodwin on Sunday, the truth can be laid bare.
The engine room it seems these days is just average.
The club faces massive decisions on aspects of its game plan including its revamped ball movement and a potential selection statement after a deplorable loss for the second time in three weeks.
Harrison Petty has taken only one mark in each of the past three matches, hard nut Tom Sparrow didn’t register a single tackle on Sunday, Bayley Fritsch was sent to defence amid some concerns around his work rate and you worry about Max Gawn’s petrol tank rucking solo this year.
But the most mystifying let down of all of Melbourne’s headaches at the moment is what happened to that mighty on-ball brigade, and in particular, the depth in there?
Christian Petracca can’t be blamed because he looked as frustrated as anyone in the loss to Fremantle and is being asked to do it all in the middle and forward half in a bid to patch up every problem which appears in game.
Is he Arthur or Martha, he is probably wondering himself at times, swapping between the midfield and forward lines?
But somehow this team generated only 35 inside 50s against West Coast a fortnight ago and only 37 entries forward in the walloping from a hungry and well-organised Fremantle in Alice Springs.
The Demons rank 14th for clearances according to Champion Data under the guidance of not only the best ruckman in the game, but one of the best talls we have ever seen in Max Gawn.
They have spiralled from second last year to 12th this year for contested possessions and slumped from sixth to 17th for ground balls.
Goodwin has flicked the Rubik’s cube around, trying Christian Salem, Sparrow and Alex Neal Bullen as well as Kysaiah Pickett and Trent Rivers in the middle.
But they desperately miss Angus Brayshaw, who retired due to concussion, Dockers’ ruckman Luke Jackson looks like taking Gawn’s throne as the best ruckman in the game, and Jack Viney is a warrior but possibly carrying an injury.
And Clayton Oliver is down after a blistering start to the year in his return from some time away from the club because of some personal issues and attitude concerns over an interrupted summer.
So when Petracca is sent forward, and without Brayshaw anymore, the Demons’ V8 midfield has looked more like a four cylinder.
Those inside the inner sanctum may point to a more encouraging effort against St Kilda last week when the club scored 100 points and a run of 82 weeks inside the eight from Round 1 2021 to last weekend.
It is the third-best streak in the top-eight era behind Geelong (2007-2011) and Essendon (1998-2002), according to respected statistician Sirswampthing on social media platform X.
But there is an edge and significance about what happens in red and blue this year because the club is trending in the wrong direction.
After the flag in 2021, the club has not won a final over the past two seasons despite sitting among the premiership favourites throughout, and Jake Lever said the disastrous September last year would either make or break the footy club.
But if there was some fire in the belly, it looked extinguished in the defender’s absence with a knee problem on Sunday in the ‘Red Centre’.
Goodwin made some key changes to the club’s ball movement, knowing the Demons’ sword had to sharpen heading into 2024.
In previous years, the Demons would dominate clearance and dominate territory with a game plan that went long down the line and relied on its brand of contested possession and defence to win it games.
But what was happening was the club was bombing or dumping the ball inside 50m at all costs and it was bouncing straight out.
Remember, the Demons had 32 more inside 50s than Collingwood in the qualifying final loss and then eight more scoring shots than Carlton in the semi-final heartbreaker.
When the data was punched into the club’s computers, they said the chances of losing both finals considering the metrics was 250-1.
They were stiff, in other words, the Demons.
But Goodwin recalibrated things in October in a bid to meet the demands of finals footy, and has been open and honest about how the club could improve its efficiency moving the ball forward this year.
Work in progress etc etc.
The club couldn’t back in a plan which didn’t work three years in a row.
So, plainly, the club has gone about its ball movement much more differently this year, and it is not a particularly sexy or attractive style of play to watch.
So instead of bombing and dumping the footy forward, Melbourne plays a more controlled game style. There are more short kicks, more sideways movement.
More subtlety and caution. More care with the Sherrin.
They want to hold the footy up more so when they get the Sherrin upfront better decisions are made.
But that has worked some weeks, and no others.
Melbourne has beaten Geelong, toppled Port Adelaide in their own backyard, and pushed Carlton to one point, which are all ticks to a large degree.
But against Fremantle we saw the white flag go up for the first time under Goodwin post COVID-19. It was a total surrender and one of the worst performances of any side this season.
In the bowels of the club, it will be an uncomfortable few days.
Goodwin is a man who eyeballs his troops. He didn’t muck around when it came to considering a trade for Clayton Oliver postseason and moving Petty forward.
So it feels like Goodwin will back in his troops broadly, with some help from inspirational former Demon Neale Daniher ahead of the Freeze MND game to rediscover some hunger, intent and spark against Collingwood, and the new No. 1 clearance player in the competition, Nick Daicos.
The setting and nature of the challenge which awaits Melbourne at the MCG on King’s Birthday on Monday will surely stir something in the Demons.
But if the nostrils aren’t flared for that one, and there isn’t most ferocity at the contest and some more precision in their execution, then the bye the week after will be a good time for the senior coach to consider a more serious recalibration of style and personnel for the second half of the year.
Melbourne wants to play with more control this year when Collingwood last year went in another direction winning the flag with a territory, chaos and pressure game plan.
The Magpies bring intense heat, but are half-strength and without any real key forwards. They are makeshift ahead of the ball, to say the least.
If the Demons aren’t up for the fight against a depleted Collingwood on Neale’s day, then the serious questions will come for Melbourne ahead of a softer run against North Melbourne, Brisbane and West Coast.
Melbourne can win those games in any case and it won’t mean much because the reality is it is hard to trust Melbourne this year.
As Goodwin said, they have become an inconsistent footy side in 2024.
And Collingwood champion Nathan Buckley said he didn’t think the players were as hard and fit as they should be after catching a glimpse of the players in the rooms post-match.
The claim suggests the Demons are out of shape and Buckley would know, as one of the most disciplined Australian athletes to ever step over the white line, so he speaks with authority.
Does that mean there is some complacency at Melbourne? Are they comfortable with one flag? Or just not as invested and as disciplined as they should be?
The questions have to be asked.
There have been continuing distractions off the field with the former president Glen Bartlett throwing grenades at the club as part of a legal dispute and Joel Smith’s failed drugs test and trafficking allegations.
If Goodwin ever speaks honestly about the personal toll on him in the fallout with former president Bartlett, it would be completely unsurprising if he said the past few years have been devastatingly difficult for him and his family.
He is a popular member of the footy fraternity, resilient and hardworking. It wasn’t that long ago in 2019 that he got dizzy at a press conference and needed to be subbed out of the media commitment amid the intense demands on a senior coach.
The premiership win in 2021 was an outstanding achievement through COVID-19 after dismantling Geelong in the preliminary final, smashing the Bulldogs in the second half of the premiership decider, and then winning the first 10 games of 2022.
The question was asked at the time, how could anyone beat Melbourne?
But this next week presents arguably the biggest regular season test of the premiership coach’s career in a game the Demons should win.
If Melbourne can’t get back on track against the depleted Magpies, they fall one game outside the eight and the pressure will skyrocket.
When you look at the personnel the Magpies are missing, including Jordan De Goey, Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, Scott Pendlebury and Jamie Elliott, the Demons should win this by five goals.
But Melbourne’s forward line isn’t going much better.
Petty, who was the reason why the Demons didn’t trade for a forward like Rory Lobb last year, has kicked only three goals for the season.
He has averaged seven disposals a game, had two and three touches in each of his past two games, and at the moment is desperately out of form ahead of a midfield which no longer bares the same sharp claws it did three years ago.
If things go downhill from here and the club doesn’t make finals then there will be change at some level at the club.
It would be an enormous underachievement if the club does not win a final three years in a row.
And unless they can beat Collingwood on Monday to help ignite a turnaround, there are no guarantees Melbourne will even make it in.
Originally published as Melbourne’s biggest home and away game of Goodwin era looms in King’s Birthday clash
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