Draw difficulty: Reigning premier Richmond and top side Melbourne set for contrasting finishes to AFL season
There have been surprises at the top end and bottom end of the ladder this year. See if your club has a friendly schedule to come or if it is nothing but pain.
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Richmond can look forward to the easiest run home of any AFL team as it bids to become the third club this century to win three premierships on the trot.
Damien Hardwick’s Tigers – already with three of the past four flags in their keeping – made a statement on Friday night in running down the Western Bulldogs to end their unbeaten streak.
Making matters more frightening for everyone trying to end the yellow-and-black dynasty is they didn’t need Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia, Kane Lambert or Nick Vlastuin to do it.
Richmond was also the first team this season to amass more inside 50s than top side Melbourne the previous week, but inaccuracy and a second-quarter letdown hurt them in the Anzac eve clash.
Champion Data analysis reveals the sixth-placed Tigers absorbed the third-toughest start to the season, but managed to win four of their seven matches.
Richmond faces a Grand Final rematch with Geelong on Friday night – and the sides will clash again in Round 19 – but 10 of its remaining 15 opponents are outside the top eight.
The Tigers claimed nine of their last 10 games in 2020, after ending the previous season on a 12-match winning streak, so strong finishes are part of their premiership blueprint.
The news is not so good for the Demons, whose 7-0 start was bankrolled by the breeziest draw to date, according to the data, but their fixture from here is rated the toughest of all clubs.
They host the top-four Swans at the MCG on Saturday night and still have contests with the Bulldogs (twice), Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast and the Cats to come.
Simon Goodwin’s men have met every challenge so far, including defeating the Tigers and Geelong, but will have earned it if they remain in their lofty ladder perch.
The sleeping giants might be the Lions, who lost three of their first four games but have since won three straight, including their 49-point Gabba thumping of the fancied Power on Saturday night.
The relocation of a match to Queensland because of Western Australia’s COVID-19 dramas means they will spend the next month in the Sunshine State.
Brisbane has the fourth-easiest stretch run after negotiating the second-hardest run through seven rounds, while life is about to get far more difficult for Fremantle, St Kilda and Adelaide.
Only Melbourne had an easier draw than the Crows, who logged three early victories.
The Swans’ hopes of maintaining their strong opening to the season is aided by the second-simplest finish to 2021.
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Originally published as Draw difficulty: Reigning premier Richmond and top side Melbourne set for contrasting finishes to AFL season
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