Eight reasons why Donald Trump can win US election

It’s still too close to call who Americans will elect on November 5, but several key factors point to a Donald Trump victory.

There is only a week to go until Americans choose their next president.

Will it be Donald Trump or will it be Kamala Harris?

While the polls say the race remains a statistical tie, here are eight reasons why the former president could prevail.

COST OF LIVING

Inflation in the US peaked two years ago at a shocking 9.1 per cent – a 40-year high.

While it has successfully been brought back under control, households are still feeling the pain of high prices, particularly for groceries, petrol and rent.

Cost of living increases have been toxic for incumbent governments worldwide, and Mr Trump has pinned the blame on Ms Harris while reminding voters of his preferable record.

Donald Trump during a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. Picture: AFP

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

More than eight million people have illegally crossed the US-Mexico border since the Biden administration was elected and relaxed Mr Trump’s strict policies.

The impact of this record influx has been felt around the country, with cities such as New York, Denver and Chicago all struggling to house and support the new arrivals.

Mr Trump has also constantly highlighted horrific crimes committed by illegal immigrants.

GLOBAL CONFLICT

Two major wars have broken out since Mr Trump left office: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the conflict in the Middle East that began with Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack on Israel and has since spiralled into Lebanon, Iran and Yemen.

Mr Trump has argued these wars would never have happened on his watch – a claim that is impossible to disprove – while criticising America’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.

A woman wears a US flag jacket near Donald Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago in West Palm Beach, Florida. Picture: AFP

DIRECTION OF THE US

Whether people feel their country is heading in the right direction is typically a strong indicator of their willingness to re-elect the incumbent party of government.

This measure has been consistently problematic for the Biden-Harris administration, with the most recent New York Times poll finding just 28 per cent of respondents believed the US was heading in the right direction.

BIDEN’S RECORD

Joe Biden has been an historically unpopular president, with the majority of voters long having believed he was too old to seek a second term before he finally decided to drop out.

Mr Trump has relentlessly tied Ms Harris as the Vice President to the President’s policy failings. And she has avoided any drastic moves to break from Mr Biden’s record – when asked if she would have done anything differently, she said: “Not a thing comes to mind.”

THE BRO VOTE

Democratic presidential candidates typically dominate among young voters. But Mr Trump has offset some of that during this campaign by appealing to the so-called “bro vote”.

Young men are swinging in his direction, having taken a liking to his brazen strongman style as he has blitzed podcasts and online shows talking about everything from drugs and cryptocurrency to pro wrestling and masculinity.

A masked Trump supporter lines up outside of the PPL Center ahead of Trump's campaign rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Picture: AFP

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS

The other key demographic shift – although its full impact will not be known until the votes are counted – is that Ms Harris appears to have lost ground with Black and Hispanic voters who are also critical to a winning Democratic coalition.

Multiple factors are at play here, including the traditional social conservatism of some Hispanic groups as well as the economic frustrations that are common across racial divides.

HARRIS’S SURPRISE CANDIDACY

Ms Harris has had just over three months to fight for and claim the Democratic nomination, choose a running mate, raise money, prepare for a presidential debate, develop a policy agenda, give interviews and campaign in battleground states.

At times, her inexperience has shown. By contrast, Mr Trump announced his 2024 presidential campaign two years ago, giving him far more time to be prepared to win.

Originally published as Eight reasons why Donald Trump can win US election