The showdown: New polls reveal state of election race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

With just two weeks until the US election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, this is what the polls are saying about who is favoured to win the White House.

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is in “serious danger” after more than 17 million early votes show Donald Trump over-performing in key battleground states.

Political analysts are floating the prospect of a winner known before election day if the early trends continue in favour of Republicans.

With less than two weeks before Americans got to the ballot box on November 5, local time, records are being smashed for early and absentee voter turnout.

Of the 17.8 million early votes, almost 6 million have been cast in the seven swing states, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab data.

In Nevada, one of the swing states considered most likely to be won by Democrats, four days of early voting and mail-in ballots showed Republicans leading Democrats for the first presidential cycle since 2008.

Nevada poll watcher Jon Ralston, who has covered the state for three decades, explained the Democrats’ “blue firewall” has “collapsed” in Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, while rural areas over perform. Republicans lead in ballots across the state by roughly two per cent.

Ralston said the “historic” numbers favouring Republicans “could signal serious danger” for Ms Harris.

Harris campaign insiders fear “blue wall” could crumble for the first time in decades as Mr Trump posts strong support in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

While Ms Harris is leading the national early vote in overall volume, the share of early votes has narrowed as Republicans show up in record numbers in swing states like North Carolina and Georgia.

Ms Harris is also underperforming in Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and now Las Vegas, Nevada.

Latest figures from Arizona show Republican registered voters accounting for 42.7 compared to Democrats’ 35.9 per cent of the early in-person vote, and 18 per cent of the mail-in vote compared to Democrats’ 16.8 per cent, according to DecisionDeskHQ.

Political analyst Mark Halperin, who was the first to accurately report Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, said it was too early, but that if the trajectory of early voting continues the winner will be known “even before the polls open”.

“Don’t overread the early vote, it can change, we don’t know who exactly is casting these ballots, how they’re voting,” he said.

“If this continues, Donald Trump can’t lose because the Democrats can’t possibly do well enough on election day.”

Meanwhile, an average of leading national polls oputs Ms Harris and Mr Trump in a statistical tie.

The Real Clear Politics analysis shows the Vice President has the support of 49.3 per cent of Americans, with 48.5 per cent of voters backing the former president.

The Democrat’s lead of 0.8 percentage points – which is well within the margin of error – is the narrowest her advantage has been since she stormed ahead of Republican rival after replacing President Joe Biden as her party’s candidate.

What do the latest national polls show?

Two polls released a fortnight out from the election showed Ms Harris holding firm in front.

The Morning Consult poll found she had the support of 50 per cent of likely voters while 46 per cent preferred Mr Trump – in line with her lead in the organisation’s previous research.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll had her on 46 per cent with Mr Trump on 43 per cent, although that survey raised warning signs for the Vice President with Mr Trump strongly favoured on the key issues of the economy and immigration.

The Rasmussen Reports poll – which has typically favoured the Republican candidate – gave him a lead of 50 per cent to 47 per cent.

Donald Trump campaigns in North Carolina. Picture: Win McNamee (AFP)

What about polling in the battleground states?

America’s Electoral College system means the next president will be decided by voters in seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.

Bear in mind that in 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Mr Trump in the overall popular vote by almost three million, but he convincingly won the Electoral College by triumphing in swing states.

According to the Real Clear Politics average, the former president currently leads Ms Harris in all seven battlegrounds, but his advantage in each state is so narrow that the candidates are statistically tied.

Mr Trump is ahead by 0.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 0.4 percentage points in Wisconsin and 0.5 percentage points in North Carolina – and Ms Harris would win the election if she claimed victory in those three states.

Earlier this week, a Washington Post-Schar School poll of 5000 registered voters across the seven swing states found the candidates were deadlocked on 47 per cent.

Kamala Harris prepares to fly from Georgia to Pennsylvania. Picture: Megan Warner (Getty Images via AFP)

What if the polls are wrong?

In 2016, while the national polls were remarkably accurate, they overlooked Mr Trump’s swing state strength that handed him a stunning victory. Four years ago, the national polls over-estimated Mr Biden’s advantage, and he only squeaked home in key battlegrounds.

Should the polls miss in the same way as 2020 this time around, Mr Trump would easily sweep the seven states up for grabs, ensuring a dominant victory.

But if the polls are wrong in the same way they were during the 2022 congressional midterm elections – when the Democrats surprisingly averted a Republican wipe-out – then Ms Harris would win.

According to renowned polling guru Nate Silver, Mr Trump currently has a 53 per cent chance of winning the Electoral College and returning to the White House.

Originally published as The showdown: New polls reveal state of election race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris