Tasmanian weather: El Niño alert could prevent ski season and snowfall this winter
While Tasmanian peaks are getting close to being a snowy paradise, the El Niño alert might put a damper on this winter’s snowfall. FORECAST >>
Weather
Don't miss out on the headlines from Weather. Followed categories will be added to My News.
After a small amount of snowfall on Mount Mawson and Ben Lomond overnight, Tasmanian ski fields are getting close to being a snowy paradise.
But after the Bureau of Meteorology issued an El Niño alert, winter plans of skiing or snowboarding off Tasmanian peaks might not be possible.
“Australia and Tasmania’s snow season is highly variable, and a single weather event can substantially change the season,” senior meteorologist Brooke Oakley said.
“The weather event can have a big impact on the amount of snowfall and the length of the snow season.
“Cold fronts and low pressure systems are the main weather systems that bring snow to Tasmania, and we do frequently have cold fronts and low pressure systems crossing Tasmania during winter.”
While the Bureau don't produce long range snow forecasts, its outlook for climate drivers can give meteorologists an idea of what’s to come.
“The models currently indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and also El Niño are likely to form during winter,” Ms Oakley said.
“The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is now our main alert, which indicates a 70 per cent chance of El Nino forming this year and when these two climate drivers are combined, that’s historically led to warmer and drier conditions which can reduce peak snow depth.”
Southern Tasmanian Ski Association former president Peter Davis said while there was a little bit of snowfall on Mt Mawson, there will have to be a heavier fall to do ski or snowboard.
“The problem with this weather at the moment is the northerly, north-westerly and westerly and what we really need is south or south-westerly, which will bring a bit more precipitation,” he said.
“Last year, we got a very good start around the June long weekend. We actually ran the tows at this time of year but unfortunately, we haven’t got quite enough even though it’s cold and windy.
“It really depends on whether you get good low swinging weather up from the Antarctic to give us a good snow dump.”
Ben Lomond Alpine Resort managing director Ben Monk said the resort had some light snow over the past two days but not enough for skiing.
“We’ve just installed snow-making machines … we made snow last night for a few hours but the conditions changed for us,” he said.
Forecast
Hobart
In the states South, Hobart will have a partly cloudy week with a top of 17C on Sunday, 16C on Monday, and a top of 16C for the rest of the week.
Launceston
It’s a wet weekend for Launceston, with a top of 16C on Sunday and Monday, 14C on Tuesday, partly cloudy and 15C on Wednesday, before more rain and 14C for Thursday and Friday.
Strahan
To the West, Strahan will have rain all week, with a top of 15C on Sunday through to Tuesday, before cooling down to 13C on Wednesday. More rain and windy conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday with a maximum of 15C.
Swansea
In the states East, Swansea will have a partly cloudy weekend with a top of 17C from Sunday through till Friday.
Pictures: King tide rolls in as low-lying coastal community braces
An abnormally high tide has begun to roll in across the state’s South East after a coastal hazard warning was issued. Pictures >>
Christmas Day weather could hit the sweet spot for Tassie
The holiday could serve up an extra sweet with above average temperatures expected during the day in Tasmania. Here’s what to expect on Christmas Day.