Vinnies CEO Lara Alexander tipped as slight favourite to win Bass seat, after Sarah Courtney resignation
Tasmania’s St Vincent de Paul Society goes into the recount for departing Liberal MP Sarah Courtney’s Bass seat with a “modest advantage” according to one leading political analyst says.
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Lara Alexander, the chief executive of Vinnies Tasmania, is being tipped as the slight favourite to win departing Bass Liberal MP Sarah Courtney’s seat on a recount.
The Tasmanian Electoral Commission will write to the 14 Bass candidates who were not successful in the 2021 state election, asking them to contest the recount, which will be conducted after nominations close at 12pm on Friday, February 25.
It’s set to be a three-horse race between the Liberal candidates for Bass who did not win a seat last year: Ms Alexander, former Launceston alderman Simon Wood, and George Town Mayor Greg Kieser.
All three candidates confirmed to the Mercury that they would be putting their hands up for the recount.
Political expert Kevin Bonham said Ms Alexander had a “modest advantage” over Mr Wood based on the distribution of Ms Courtney’s preferences.
“She’s well ahead of Greg Keiser on those votes, which would make it quite difficult for him to catch up on the remaining votes,” Dr Bonham said. “So I think that Alexander and Wood are going to be the final two.”
“It may be that the fact that some of the votes are coming from Sarah Courtney directly may also help Alexander. We’ll see.
“There’s a bit of a gender effect. Not always, but there’s an overall tendency that votes for female candidates are more likely to favour other female candidates – all else being equal.”
Ms Courtney polled third behind Premier Peter Gutwein and Finance Minister Michael Ferguson on the Liberals’ Bass ticket in 2021, receiving 2227 first preference votes.
Ms Alexander received 511, Mr Kieser received 646, and Mr Wood received 707.
Education Minister Sarah Courtney announces shock resignation
THE shock resignation of senior Minister Sarah Courtney from a brace of portfolios has set the Gutwein government the tough task of finding a replacement.
Ms Courtney announced her decision to quit the ministry and the parliament the day she returned to work after a controversial holiday in France, during which she caught Covid.
She cited a desire to spend more time with her family as the key reason, saying the death of her grandmother last week had been a major factor.
Ms Courtney was until her resignation the Minister for Education, Minister for Skills Training and Workforce Growth, Minister for Disability Services, Minister for Children and Youth,
and Minister for Tourism Hospitality and Events. She was previously health Minister.
The government has just 18 days to swear in a replacement MP in Bass or run the risk of being in minority on the floor of the House of Assembly.
“I have given my heart and soul to this role for eight years and I’ve taken every step to ensure it is my first priority,” Ms Courtney told a media conference on Thursday morning. “However, I believe the time has come for me to move on.
Widely criticised for her decision to holiday in France as schools prepared for the renewed threat of Covid, Ms Courtney she was looking forward to “spending meaningful, quality time with the people I love” and denied her decision to quit was a response to that criticism.
“I’ve been reflecting on my time, the past two years in particular, has been especially gruelling. Rewarding, but very gruelling and exhausting,” she said.
“I don’t accept the criticism that has been put forward by Labor and the Greens.
“I obviously regret having got Covid and I am very remorseful about that.
“No one wants to get Covid and it was horrible timing to be get that and I don’t like putting my colleagues under additional strain.
“So I guess I’m sad that I wasn’t able to be here, I missed a number of important things across portfolios in my absence, as well as personal things such as my grandmother’s death.
Premier Peter Gutwein paid tribute to Ms Courtney’s work across key portfolios including health and education during eight years in parliament, saying he was sad to see her go.
“Sarah has been a fantastic member of parliament, both as a Minister and prior to that as parliamentary secretary under the previous premier and as a member for Bass as she started her career,” he said.
“People should never forget the enormous weight she carried as the health Minister, as we entered the pandemic and we stood in this room together on so many occasions, at a time when the state was at its most difficult moment.”
“Sarah will always have my thanks and gratitude for the work that she put in then but importantly, as well, for the other significant and important legislative changes that she’s brought through.”
Just hours after Ms Courtney’s announcement, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission announced a recount would take place in Bass.
Candidates who were on the ballot paper but were not elected at last year’s poll have until February 25 to nominate. The recount will happen the same day.
The Liberals ran six candidates in Bass. One of the three unsuccessful Liberals — Simon Wood, Greg Kieser or Lara Alexander, is expected to be elected.
Labor leader Rebecca White said Ms Courtney’s departure had created a “bigger mess” for the government.
“The decision today by Sarah Courtney to resign is Peter Gutwein’s fault,” she said.
“He allowed her to go to France on a holiday in the lead up to schools returning.
“He refused to recall her when we had serious questions about the preparation of our schools and now we have a situation where Tasmanian students and teachers don’t have an education Minister.”
Greens leader Cassy O’Connor said Ms Courtney’s departure shrunk the government's talent pool.
“Ms Courtney’s made, I think, the right choice for her but this really highlights the need to restore the numbers in the House of Assembly because now Peter Gutwein has a very difficult decision to make, to find another talented enough backbencher to carry such a heavy portfolio load,” she said.
The Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry thanked Ms Courtney for her work on behalf of small business, tourism, hospitality, events, training and education
“We urge the Premier to put business first when considering the Cabinet reshuffle and ensure that the business community continues to have strong representation at the Cabinet table,” CEO Michael Bailey said.
Tourism Industry Council of Tasmania chief Luke Martin said Ms Courtney was highly regarded by the sector.
“We make no secret of the fact we believe Tourism must have a senior Minister with the experience to cut across the many Government agencies that impact our industry, and lead us through our recovery,” he said.
“The Premier has our industry close to his heart, and I’m sure he’ll consider this in his cabinet reshuffle.”
But Australian Education Union Tasmania president David Genford said her role in the TAFE reforms had not been forgotten.
“A legacy of this Minister will be 900 Tasmanians kicked out of their public service positions at TasTAFE on June 30 this year. It is unfortunate that she will not be in parliament to be accountable when this blow to public education and training occurs,” he said.
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