Tasmania state election: Battle for power shifts to backroom | David Killick analysis

As the count continues, the process to decide who holds power through the term of the next parliament — however long that is — will play out slowly, and largely out of the public eye, writes DAVID KILLICK

Jeremy Rockliff and newly elected Bass MP Bridget Archer. Picture: PATRICK GEE

Tasmania’s battle for political power has shifted from the ballot box to the backroom.

As the count continues, the process to decide who holds power through the term of the next parliament — however long that is — will play out slowly, and largely out of the public eye.

It will intensify next week when we know the final numbers and who exactly will make up the new parliament.

Jeremy Rockliff was no longer talking about radical left-wing independents on Monday.

A more conciliatory tone was in the air, although Liberal attack dog Felix Ellis was unable to resist a lash, conveying his desire for “another collaborative parliament” with a straight face.

As the count continues, many of those close to the political fray will be taking a breather this week, taking the chance for a sleep-in or taking down banners.

Election campaigns are exhausting affairs for all involved.

But politics never stops, and the courtship of the likely crossbench is on in earnest with solicitous phone calls and texts and WhatsApp messages.

Mr Rockliff was out on Monday making the case for another Liberal minority government.

The gist of his argument is that his party won the most votes and seats, Labor went backwards and how can a party with 25 per cent of the first preference votes aspire to govern.

For his part Dean Winter is refusing to concede.

For his party, so far from majority, the only path to government lies through securing the support of the Greens and a handful of the independents.

Labor opposition leader Dean Winter at a press conference in Hobart. Picture: Peter Mathew

The Labor leader has a lot riding on snatching some sort of victory from Saturday’s result.

The returning independents have the benefit of experience.

David O’Byrne, Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland have ridden this merry-go-round before.

Their constituents like their work. Their increased primary votes on Saturday attest to that.

They know now’s the time to time and to take care and that sometimes the best deal is no deal at all.

In stark contrast, the neophyte Lambie trio who rushed to sign on the dotted line, were cast into political oblivion on Saturday.

There are few certainties over the next couple of weeks.

The weight of convention and expectation suggests Mr Rockliff is set to return to parliament as Premier and the head of a Liberal minority government.

One day in September, when the new parliament first meets, he will get to test his numbers on the floor of the House.

Will Mr Winter chance his arm again with a no-confidence motion? Would the crossbench vote in support? Do those who voted no-confidence in Mr Rockliff a couple of months back have confidence now?

Forming government and somehow holding onto power in these circumstances will be a test that would make the deftest of political operatives tremble — and comes on top of the various crises that remain just below the boil.

But there is one certainty among all this: the electorate will not look kindly on the authors of another truncated parliament.