Report by University of Tasmania’s Institute for the Study of Social Change shows population picture varies widely across the Tasmania’s

A new report shows the population pictures varies widely across Tasmania’s 29 local government areas, while the state is headed for an overall population decline by mid-century.

TASMANIA may be experiencing its strongest rate of statewide population growth in almost a decade right now — but a new report is calling for localised strategies ahead of a predicted decline.

A report released today by the University of Tasmania’s Institute for the Study of Social Change shows the population picture varies widely across the state’s 29 local government areas.

POPULATION DECLINE PREDICTED FOR TASSIE, SAYS DEMOGRAPHER

Report co-author and demographer Lisa Denny said population ageing would spark an overall population decline in Tasmania by mid-century.

Lisa Denny. PIC: MATT THOMPSON

“In recent years, migration from interstate and overseas has helped drive overall population growth, but this has overwhelmingly favoured the major cities, particularly greater Hobart,” Dr Denny says.

“This situation is projected to continue for the short to medium term. However, this growth masks the reality for other regions in Tasmania which continue to experience the economic and social challenges accompanying an ageing and/or declining population. “

Local government areas identified by the report as being in population decline are Dorset, Waratah-Wynyard, Central Highlands, Circular Head and West Coast.

Growing areas were Burnie, Clarence, Derwent Valley, Glenorchy, Hobart, Huon Valley, Kingborough, Latrobe, Northern Midlands, Sorell, West Tamar and Brighton.

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There were multiple factors in population increases and declines in each area, including age profiles, overseas migration and the demise of traditional industries,

The report recommends state and local governments:

ESTABLISH a formal advisory group on population change, similar to the now defunct Demographic Change Advisory Council;

DEVELOP a collaborative approach between tiers of government to address population change, including how infrastructure and services are delivered;

DEVELOP a planning and settlement framework to account for population change;

COMMIT to collecting, analysing and sharing data and undertaking monitoring to inform decision making.

Dr Denny says the best approach to the population challenges ahead would depend on the local conditions and the community and political will to respond.

“The regional population strategy being developed by the Northern Tasmanian Development Corporation is a promising example of a co-ordinated response to emerging population challenges, she said.