Green, White, Bacon, Giddings? Exclusive polling reveals who Tasmanians think should lead the Labor party

BRYAN Green, Rebecca White, Scott Bacon, Lara Giddings ... who does Tasmania think should lead the state Labor party? Poll results and analysis

Exclusive polling for the Mercury shows Rebecca White is Tasmanians’ preferred leader of the Labor party. Picture: RICHARD JUPE

TASMANIANS believe Rebecca White, Scott Bacon and former premier Lara Giddings would be a better as Labor leader than Bryan Green.

Exclusive new ReachTEL polling, commissioned by the Mercury, shows 31.5 per cent of Tasmanians believe Ms White would make a better Opposition leader than Mr Green, who received 14.4 per cent support.

Opposition leader Bryan Green.

Ms White, Tasmania’s youngest MP in the Lower House and the second youngest in Tasmanian Parliament, has been touted as the voice for new Labor and spruiked as a potential leader because of her youth and ability.

However, polling showed her popularity went across all age groups, peaking at 33.8 per cent with 51 to 65-year-olds.

The polling shows Ms Giddings, on 15 per cent, and Scott Bacon, 19.2 per cent, are both ahead of Mr Green.

Poll: Who of the following do you think would make the better Leader of the Opposition?

Mr Green, who took over the party reins following the 2014 State Election, has been credited with re-engaging with the party base after Labor was handed its worst political defeat in its history.

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However the polling will again raise questions both internally and externally as to whether Mr Green is the best person to take the party to the next election.

Scott Bacon.

Lara Giddings.

Mr Green told the Mercury last night he has never been afraid of letting members of his team shine.

“I’m very proud of the work all of my shadow ministers are doing,” Mr Green said.

“Labor has got a small but strong team full of potential leaders.

“The hallmark of our time in opposition has been unity and no poll will change that.”

Tasmanians were asked about each of Labor’s MPs in the Lower House, with the exception of David Llewelyn who is not expected to recontest his seat in Lyons.

The polling also shows Mr Green is well behind Liberal leader Will Hodgman in preferred Premier status.

Poll: Who of the following do you think would make the better Premier?

When asked 59.8 per cent of those polled said Mr Hodgman would be a better option than Mr Green, 40.2 per cent.

Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said both polling results were not good for Mr Green.

“If you take the two of them in combination it would seem that voters would like to have a new leader before the next election,” Dr Bonham said.

“It is not very good for an incumbent leader topping neither his own electorate or his own party.”

Dr Bonham said Ms White’s popularity was across the board.

“There is a spike for Scott Bacon in the older age group that I think are traditional Labor voters.”

He said the preferred Premier numbers for Mr Green were not good.

“For this style of polling this is a very large lead [for Mr Hodgman].”

ReachTEL polled 2934 residents across Tasmania on November 10, 2016.

TIME FOR LABOR’S FUTURE TO STAND UP

BRYAN Green’s lack of popularity should come as no surprise to those in the Labor Party.

Those close to Mr Green, and close to the party, have enormous respect for the Opposition leader.

But there is no escaping the reality he is on the nose with many Tasmanians.

In a candid interview with TasWeekend he clearly acknowledges it.

He also points out it is not a Presidential contest.

But as the election nears, and the leaders become more and more visible, is it really possible to go to the polls with a man that, at this stage, is less popular than three of his colleagues?

Rebecca White, Scott Bacon and Lara Giddings are all better choices as leader than Mr Green according to the polling.

But at this stage they all seem as comfortable as the Government that Mr Green stays in charge.

Ms White is a clearly a future leader.

She has shown enormous capacity and drive in Opposition.

But Ms White and the Labor Party also know that Tasmania’s unique Hare Clark polling system means that a leader’s popularity is not as important as it can be under other voting systems.

At this stage it is probably the main reason why Mr Green will remain in the top job.

But as the next election edges closer it is clear the future of the party will need to take centre stage – even if it means not taking the top job.

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