Exclusive polling reveals that Tasmania is headed for minority government

EXCLUSIVE: THE contest for Tasmania’s southern seat of Franklin and the future of former premier Lara Giddings could play key roles in the future of a majority Hodgman Government, new polling suggests.

Premier Will Hodgman speaks during question time in State Parliament. Picture: LUKE BOWDEN

THE contest for Tasmania’s southern seat of Franklin and the future of former premier Lara Giddings could play key roles in the future of a majority Hodgman Government, new exclusive polling suggests.

ReachTEL polling, commissioned by the Mercury, shows the Hodgman Government is going to have difficulty retaining a majority at the next election, expected in March 2018.

Asked what party would receive a first preference vote, 42.1 per cent of Tasmanians surveyed last week selected the Liberal Party, followed by Labor (28.6 per cent) and the Greens (14 per cent).

Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said whether or not the next election brought in a majority or a minority government looked set to be decided by one seat.

“The statewide result is pretty strong for the Government,” Dr Bonham said.

Polling analyst Kevin Bonham says it is unclear whether the Hodgman Government will maintain a majority in the next state election in 2018. Picture: MATHEW FARRELL

He suggested the Government was headed toward minority government, but it was too close to call.

“It could be decided by one seat. It is not clear that the Government would retain a majority,” he said.

Dr Bonham said the electorates of Lyons and Franklin were shaping as key battlegrounds.

“The Liberals are just not going to realistically hold that fourth seat in Braddon,” he said.

“The question is whether they can hold their three seats in Lyons and Franklin.

“It would be likely that if they drop Lyons, they drop Franklin as well.”

Whether Lara Giddings stands for election again could determine the shape of the next state government. Picture: SAM ROSEWARNE

The polling suggests:

LABOR could snare the Greens seat in Bass.

BRADDON could see the loss of one of four Liberals MPs to be replaced by a Labor MP.

DENISON would maintain the status quo with two Liberals, two Labor MPs and a Green representing the Hobart electorate.

LYONS and Franklin could have three Liberals seats, in each, reduced to two.

Dr Bonham said the result in Franklin could be guided by Ms Giddings.

There has been speculation for a number of years the former premier may not contest the seat again, but she has remained tight-lipped about her future.

“If Giddings retires they will be going to the next election with no incumbents in that seat,” Dr Bonham said.

“They would at least need some high-profile candidates in that seat. We have seen quite often in this system that people retire midterm because it does give the replacement time to build up some profile as a sitting member.”

Former minister David Llewellyn has been rumoured to be set for retirement.

“He would be setting records if he got re-elected,” Dr Bonham said.

Voting intentions: If a state election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote?

“At least there they have a strong incumbent [Rebecca White] who pulls votes.”

At the weekend Opposition Leader Bryan Green called on all interested Tasmanians to put up their hands to run for the party at the next election.

Ms Giddings said last night she would have more to say about contesting the next election in due course.

“I’m thoroughly enjoying representing the people of Franklin and the policy work I’m doing in Parliament as Shadow Attorney-General,” she said.

“There are still many things I want to achieve in this term of Parliament.”

ReachTEL surveyed 2934 residents across Tasmania last Thursday night.

ANALYSIS

PREMIER Will Hodgman will be reasonably comfortable with today’s polling result.

After securing a majority government in 2014 by handing the Labor Party its worst electoral defeat in Tasmanian history, Mr Hodgman and his team would have always known majority again would be a difficult task.

On today’s numbers it seems possible.

If anything, the polling could have Labor and the Greens doing a touch more soul searching. There is a real possibility the Greens could lose the party’s seat in Bass.

Anecdotally and using the recent Federal Election as a guide, support for Labor appears to be rising. But today’s numbers show the party still has its work cut out.

Fresh candidates could provide the solutions. And the sooner MPs such as Lara Giddings and David Llewellyn go public with their long-term political plans the better.

But the Liberals still have political advantages.

The government of the day controls the purse strings and can more easily pull levers that provide greater political capital. It can also choose when to go to the polls.

A theory, peddled by Labor, but dismissed by the Premier, is an early election could be a huge advantage for Mr Hodgman and his team.

At this stage the Liberals are the only party that could form a majority government. And if Tasmanian history is anything to go by, majority government is a huge selling point during election campaigns.

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