Michael McGuire: If Libs lose, they can only blame themselves

If correct, these bombshell numbers underline an old fact of SA politics – the Liberals just aren’t very good at it, writes Michael McGuire.

The tension within the Liberal camp between a desire to shore up its base while appealing to a broader audience is becoming increasingly evident as the campaign rolls on.

The fact that it feels the need to shore up its base, which in some cases still annoyed by factors as varied as land tax, Covid-19 restrictions and a perception in some quarters that Premier Steven Marshall is not conservative enough, would be a concern.

In the last week we have seen quotes from unnamed Liberals in the national newspaper about how they were underdogs in the election, and Marshall gave an interview to my colleague Paul Starick about how he would give more voice to conservatives if returned as premier.

Former prime minister John Howard is also in town to lend his conservative credentials to Marshall. Howard, who is very much in the category of “yesterday’s man”, still carries demigod status among the more conservative elements of the ­Liberal Party even though he hasn’t held elected office in 15 years.

Then we had the somewhat bizarre contribution from former Liberal leader Isobel Redmond, who this week came out of self-imposed exile to call ex-Lib, and now independent MP, Dan Cregan’s decision to quit the party “one of the grubbiest things I have ever seen in politics’’.

Redmond’s obvious motivation is to persuade usual Liberal voters not to vote for Cregan. But with less than a week to go it’s a short-term hit which could have long-term consequences.

If the latest poll on advertiser.com.au is accurate, then it’s fair to say, it’s a tension the Libs haven’t managed to get a handle on at all.

But perhaps that’s not a surprise. For a long time, state Liberals haven’t been good at the art of politics.

It’s what kept them in opposition for 16 years. It’s how they have managed to go from a comfortable majority to a minority government in less than a term.

Cregan is regarded as favourite to win the Mt Barker-based seat of Kavel.

There is still a strong chance Saturday’s election will result in a hung parliament. And from there the independents will decide which party they will back to form the state’s next government.

Cregan is one of those independents. Another is Mt Gambier’s Troy Bell. Both are natural conservatives.

Premier Steven Marshall Picture: NCA NewsWire / Naomi Jellicoe

Labor’s approach has been to give both an excuse to back the opposition. Cregan is getting a new $220m Mt Barker hospital and Bell has been talking up Labor’s various promises that total $100m for his area.

Labor is also rationalising that it wouldn’t be a career ender for both men to ditch the Libs.

The federal seat of Mayo, which takes in Mt Barker, is held by independent Rebekha Sharkie. Mt Gambier re-elected conservative independent Rory McEwen in 2006 after he became a Labor cabinet member.

The Liberal campaign has been focused on the profligate nature of Labor’s campaign promises: The threat that Labor can’t control a budget and ordinary South Australians will eventually pay the price.

It’s not a bad line of attack. Its success will depend, not so much on the quantum of the dollars, but whether voters regard it as money well spent.

The attack is undercut though by the unwillingness of the Liberal Party to be upfront about the cost of their own election promises.

Claiming they are spending less than $300m, while promising $500m for health and the well-publicised $662m for the Riverbank arena, is tricky and ludicrous.

So, with the campaign in its dying days, what’s likely to happen? If the polls are to be believed, Labor is going to win, which would be remarkable after only one term in opposition. But it’s unlikely to be as simple as that.

There could be big swings to Labor in already safe seats. There could be swings to Labor in seats held by the government in places such as Gibson and Black, but not big enough to change sides.

The battle will come down to whether any swing reaches the marginal seats.

Labor will regain Florey. Both sides expect Adelaide to fall to Labor.

That takes Labor to 21 seats, three short of the 24 needed for a majority.

The northeast suburban seats of Newland and King hang in the balance. If Labor picks up one, that takes it to 22.

If the Liberals hang on to one of those and secures Waite, held by former Lib Sam Duluk, and deputy premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan prevails in Stuart against independent Geoff Brock, then they will also have 22.

Which leaves the three independents. Fraser Ellis in Narungga, plus Bell and Cregan.

From there, it will all be about the art of politics.

Originally published as Michael McGuire: If Libs lose, they can only blame themselves