Premier Peter Gutwein predicted jobs figures will be ‘ugly’

Premier Peter Gutwein has warned Tasmanians that unemployment figures due out on Thursday will paint a grim picture.

THE latest unemployment figures to be released on Thursday will be “ugly” Premier Peter Gutwein says.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the March labour market update on Thursday, reflecting the first two weeks of the month, as the pandemic’s first economic ripples spread.

Mr Gutwein said the figures would paint a stark picture of the economic downturn.

“I can tell you it will be ugly,” he said today.

“Obviously [the federal government payment] JobKeeper will allow some people to be connected with businesses as opposed to being on the JobSeeker payment.

“This has been a significant economic impact.

“Never before have governments, either around the world, or in this country, or in states and territories actually forcibly shut down businesses to stop the transmission of a deadly virus.
“Economically, this will be challenging for the country.”

Tasmania’s unemployment rate was 5.5 per cent in February, the lowest since 2011 as the state rode the crest of an economic wave, with just 15,000 people out of work.

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Since then, Mr Gutwein has noted, “tens of thousands” of people have lost their jobs or been stood down due to the coronavirus pandemic.

An economic forecast issued by stockbrokers CommSec says Thursday’s figures will not represent the worst of the national downturn.

“Economists are tipping a 30,000 loss of jobs in the month with unemployment to rise

from 5.1 per cent to 5.4 per cent,” its forecast said.

“The interview period is prior to the lockdown period, a period that saw many businesses close or revise their methods of operation.

“We will have to wait until the release of April data for coverage of the full lockdown period as well as the period covering the announcements of new JobSeeker and JobKeeper payments.”

Economists are predicting Australian economy will contract by somewhere between 3.4 and 6.7 per cent in 2020, with some predicting a rebound of around six per cent in 2021.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that the global economy will contract by three per cent in 2020 before rebounding by 5.8 per cent the following year.