Hodgman’s Liberals slump in latest EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll

UPDATED: LABOR Leader Rebecca White is Tasmania’s preferred premier again after the Hodgman Government suffered a massive hit in the latest opinion poll.

UPDATED: LABOR Leader Rebecca White is Tasmania’s preferred premier again after the Hodgman Government suffered a massive hit in the latest opinion poll.

The EMRS poll showed support for the Liberal Party has dropped from 47 per cent in May to 36 per cent — the largest single poll-to-poll drop in decades.

Premier Will Hodgman, meanwhile, has seen his lead over Ms White as preferred premier disappear. In May, he was leading 47-41. He is now behind 38-46.

Both results are now almost identical to what they were late last year, before Ms White announced Labor’s policy to remove poker machines from all pubs and clubs across Tasmania.

The Liberal vote soared from 34 per cent in December to 46 per cent in February, and 50 per cent at the March election.

The poll of 1000 voters was taken late last week, meaning it followed a tough week in Parliament for the Hodgman Government as it was grilled over the Cricket Tasmania affair and the state’s health system.

MORE: PREMIER RELEASES TEXT, DENIES MEETING CRICKET CEO

MORE: LABOR RAMPS UP PRESSURE ON HEALTH

On air with @seafmleeandjess in Devonport this morning talking about industry, jobs, health and all things NW coast #politas pic.twitter.com/1eqtlRw4O4

— Rebecca White (@bec_white) September 3, 2018

READ THE FULL POLL RESULTS HERE

It also came a week after the federal leadership challenge which saw Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull deposed by the federal Liberal party room.

But EMRS chief operations director Samuel Paske said the results were still striking.

“The fall in support for the Government from 47 per cent to 36 per cent is a significant movement in the last three months, returning their primary vote to that observed in late 2017 prior to the election campaign” Mr Paske said.

“Nonetheless, it should be noted that, with support currently standing at 34 per cent for Labor, there was not a commensurate gain overall for the Opposition, nor for the Greens whose support at 16 per cent is up just two points since May.

“In fact, support for independents or other minor parties increased the most, up six points to 14 per cent since May 2018.

Opposition leader Rebecca White and Premier Will Hodgman in the Mercury, Sky News debate at the Hobart Town Hall before the state election. Picture: RICHARD JUPE

MORE:

LIBS HOLD STRONG LEAD IN POLLS

LIBS JUMP IN POLLS SINCE DECEMBER

“These latest results reveal that Rebecca White currently holds a lead over Will Hodgman as preferred premier as she did in August and December of 2017 pre-election.”

The pair have exchanged the lead on the preferred premier measure three times since Ms White’s elevation to the Labor leadership early last year.

University of Tasmania Political Science Professor Richard Eccleston said the results showed the Government’s honeymoon period after this year’s election win was over.

“The polling would suggest they are going to have a harder time in their second term than in their first,” Prof Eccleston said.

“I guess one interpretation is that the core support for both parties is fairly even and some of the support that the Liberals managed to secure in the last state election campaign has drifted back to independents and undecided voters.

So basically #EMRS is almost back where it was in Dec 2017 three months before govt won re-election with almost zero swing against it. #Politas

— Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) September 4, 2018

“I think particularly in Tasmanian elections where people are concerned about minority government, rightly on wrongly, it’s really only in the few months leading up to an election that I guess that last 10 or 20 per cent of undecided voters make a decision about who’s best placed to govern.”

Prof Eccleston said he didn’t think the results were disastrous for the Liberals.

“I think they’d only start to be worried if they were consistently behind Labor for a long period of time,” he said.

“I don’t think it’s the end of the Hodgman Government or there are going to be leadership challenges or anything like that, but often opinion polls six or 12 months after an election, particularly for a second term government, often there is a softening of their support.”

Liberal support slumps in the latest EMRS poll #politas https://t.co/Rp8dPhJb7q

— David Killick (@DavidJKillick) September 4, 2018

EARLIER: THE Hodgman Government has taken a massive hit in the latest opinion poll, with Opposition leader Rebecca White retaking the lead in the preferred premier stakes.

The latest EMRS state voting intentions polling surveyed 1000 Tasmanians late last week.

Released today, the results show support for the Liberal Party has dropped from 47 per cent in May to 36 per cent, while support for Labor has lifted from 30 per cent to 34 per cent.

The Greens also saw their support rise from 14 per cent to 16 per cent, while the popularity of independents rose from eight per cent to 14 per cent.

Ms White was nominated as preferred premier by 46 per cent of respondents, up five percentage points, and Mr Hodgman was down from 47 per cent to 38 per cent.

Premier Will Hodgman fielding questions in State Parliament. Picture: RICHARD JUPE

EMRS chief operations director Samuel Paske said the results were striking.

“The fall in support for the Government from 47 per cent to 36 per cent is a significant

movement in the last three months, returning their primary vote to that observed in late 2017 prior to the election campaign” he said.

Rebecca White press conference. Picture: RICHARD JUPE

Labor leader Rebecca White was nominated as preferred premier by 46 per cent of respondents, up five percentage points, and Mr Hodgman was down from 47 per cent to 38 per cent.

“Nonetheless, it should be noted that, with support currently standing at 34 per cent for Labor,

there was not a commensurate gain overall for the Opposition, nor for the Greens whose

support at 16 per cent is up just two points since May.

“In fact, support for independents or other minor parties increased the most — up six points to 14 per cent since May 2018.

“These latest results reveal that Rebecca White currently holds a lead over Will Hodgman as preferred premier as she did in August and December of 2017 pre-election.”