Cause for concern for federal Liberals

BRAD STANSFIELD: Let’s be honest. The forthcoming federal election is going to be very difficult for the Liberals.

Campaign buses are for opposition leaders, not prime ministers. Picture: AAP

Let’s be honest. The forthcoming federal election is going to be very difficult for the Liberals.

Tasmanian Liberal state director Sam McQuestin has an impressive record, but not withstanding the slight glimmer of hope offered by the Mercury’s exclusive EMRS poll, he is going to have to produce a conjuring trick that would fool Penn and Teller if the Liberals are to wrest even one seat back from Labor in Tasmania.

POLLING REVEALS PARTIES’ FEDERAL ELECTION CHANCES

Indeed, the damage to the Liberal brand from the leadership challenge is so dire even the number two on the Liberals’ Senate ticket (Claire Chandler) must be having a few sleepless nights. This is especially so given the menagerie of Senate candidates lining up on the populist Right (and Left) all challenging for those last couple of Senate seats (think The Nationals’ Steve Martin, The Greens’ Nick McKim, Jacqui Lambie, One Nation, the Australian Conservatives, Craig Garland and “Mr Flathead”, not to mention Steve Mav who has proven that his ubiquitous sign-waving and strong social media presence earns votes.)

Not that Labor has done anything much to earn their rails run. Most Tasmanians would struggle to name the Labor senators, let alone their House of Representatives members, who appear to have sworn a vow of silence and adopted the number one rule of politics “never interfere with your enemy when they are in the process of destroying themselves”. No doubt they are desperately hoping no one notices their actual policies, such as the “granny tax” on franking credits, which will be a massive hit to the retirement incomes of thousands of Tasmanians.

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull. Picture: AAP

Of course, it didn’t have to be this way. But for the catastrophic mistake of removing Turnbull as Prime Minister, the Coalition could have confidently been expecting to pick up seats here in Tasmania.

Indeed, at the time of the leadership challenge in August I firmly believed that the Coalition under Malcolm Turnbull was on track to win next year’s federal election. Much was made at the time of the leadership challenge of the result in the Longman by-election, yet the historic result in Braddon, where the anti-government swing was almost non-existent, was much more significant. It demonstrated that with a well-run and disciplined campaign, a Coalition victory in 2019 was just not possible, but probable.

Former prime minister Tony Abbott. Picture: AAP

In short, it was wrong to roll Tony Abbott, and, according to all the available evidence, it was wrong to roll Malcolm Turnbull. Two wrongs don’t make a right. But what is done is done. What now for PM Morrison and the Liberals in Tassie?

First, just as for years Labor has been grappling with a party membership further to the Left than the mainstream voter, the Liberal Party is now facing the same challenge, but on the Right.

The so-called “base” is important, but it needs to be recognised that the “base” of the party membership is not the same as the “base” of mainstream Liberal voters.

These mainstream voters care less about social issues and the old culture wars than they do about mainstream Liberal values such as reward for effort, individual responsibility and low taxes, as well as support for things like renewable energy and funding for essential services such as health and education.

Don’t get me wrong. As Ronald Reagan famously said, “always dance with the one that brung you”.

The secret is not to send everyone else running from the dance hall at the same time.

It may be too late for the coming election, but the fact is the federal arm of the Liberal Party in Tasmania needs to do more to modernise and mainstream itself, and what it represents.

Second, on a practical level, former prime minister Turnbull had a clear strategy of attempting to win seats back in Tasmania, to help offset potential losses elsewhere, such as Queensland. Hence we got a good outcome on the GST, and ambitious Tasmanian-specific policies such as pumped Hydro 2.0.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison must visit Tasmania more if he wants to pick up votes in the state. Picture KYM SMITH

Unfortunately, so far we haven’t seen the same enthusiasm for Tasmania from the new Prime Minister. The number one rule of winning seats in Tasmania is to spend time here, yet PM Morrison has extraordinarily visited only once – and that was for the Liberal State Council.

Another of the number one rules of politics is that no two elections are ever the same. One of the mistakes the Liberals made in 2016 was to essentially re-run the 2013 federal campaign, right down to the same “Labor-Green wrecking ball” style ads. And we all know the blithe “jobs and growth” with no real policies to back it was a disaster.

This election, the political environment has changed even more, and what is desperately required are real, substantive policies that put Tasmania first. A cohesive plan for Tasmania which addresses key issues, including managing the increasing pressures between economic growth and “the Tasmanian way of life”, would be a good start. And unlike 2016, as the top-of-mind issue for most Tasmanians, health simply can’t be ignored; as a campaign issue, it needs major attention.

And finally: please, keep the gimmicky Scomobile away. Campaign buses are for opposition leaders, not prime ministers.