EMRS poll shows which Tasmanian politicians are likely to retain their seats at the next federal election

New polling shows which federal Tasmanian politicians are likely to retain their seats at the next election – and who could be in trouble.

Federal member for Bass Ross Hart faces a fight to retain the seat for Labor at the next federal election. Picture: GARY RAMAGE

NEW polling suggests Labor is set to retain its hold on Tasmania in the upcoming federal election — but the Northern set of Bass looks likely to prove a close fight between the two major parties.

Across the state, 40 per cent of the 923 decided voters polled by EMRS earlier this month said they would cast their vote for Labor while the Liberals received the support of 33 per cent.

The Greens were the choice of 11 per cent of those surveyed while 15 per cent said they would vote for an alternative to the major parties.

Bass was split 43 per cent to the Liberals and 36 per cent to Labor, indicating a tight race between George Town Council mayor Bridget Archer and Labor incumbent Ross Hart.

Political analyst Kevin Bonham said it looked a close competition but urged caution on individual seat polling.

“One hesitates to predict [that Labor would retain Bass] because it has such a history of throwing out the sitting member all the time,” he said.

Tasmanian independent member for Clark – formerly Denison – looks likely to retain the seat. Picture: MATT THOMPSON

Dr Bonham noted the relatively high vote for independents in some seats. Braddon and Lyons had independents or “other” candidates at 14 and 15 per cent respectively, while polling for Clark – formerly Denison – indicated a return for incumbent independent Andrew Wilkie despite a good result for the Opposition.

“It’s the same sort of thing you see in a lot of polls — there’s wishful thinking that there would be a high-profile independent,” Dr Bonham said.

“If there’s a Craig Garland or someone like that in Braddon then certainly the grounds are out there for them to get significant votes and have an impact on preferences, but it’s hard for them to have an impact outside of Clark.”

Mr Garland, a fisherman, secured 11 per cent of the vote in the Braddon by-election and said in late July he would run in the 2019 federal election. Labor’s Justine Keay holds the seat.

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Meanwhile, a separate EMRS poll of 1000 voters released this week had the Liberals maintain their lead over Labor in the Tasmanian parliament for the fifth quarter in a row.

However, Opposition leader Rebecca White continued her lead over the Liberals’ Will Hodgman as preferred premier.