EDITORIAL: There is no plan B for Labor in Tasmania despite devastating polling results

The leader that can inspire and instil a sense of belief that better times are ahead will be the right leader for the next chapter in Tasmanian history, writes Mercury editor Jenna Cairney

THERE is no plan B for Labor in Tasmania.

The party has no choice but to go to the next election with its current leader Rebecca White despite indications her popularity has tanked.

The most recent polling surveyed 1000 adults. Only 23 per cent of them said Ms White was their preferred candidate for Premier.

A whopping 70 per cent stated they preferred Mr Gutwein for the top job.

The figures are in stark comparison to March – before coronavirus hit the state – when Ms White was leading Mr Gutwein by two per cent on that measure.

The real worry for Labor is that Ms White’s popularity continues to slide even in the face of controversial issues such as the Premier delaying the border opening until December 1 and the essential worker saga.

Premier Peter Gutwein at a COVID-19 press conference on Friday 28th August 2020. Picture: LUKE BOWDEN

Of course, it’s a good time for most Australian leaders – other than Daniel Andrews – they are riding a wave of popularity that tends to come in the midst of a crisis.

Opposition politicians become wallflowers.

And in Tasmania, as we’ve pointed out before, Labor has swiped but struggled to land a blow.

Nevertheless, by all accounts it’s unlikely the party will change its leader at this stage for a few reasons.

Firstly, there is the lack of a suitable alternative.

And even if there was someone chomping at the bit to steal the role from Ms White, David O’Byrne would be unlikely to make his move until the tide started to turn for the party.

The next state election is due to be held in March 2022 and if you were into gambling, you’d feel comfortable putting all your chips on Mr Gutwein at this stage.

But the Labor Party faithful will hang onto hope – because they have little choice.

If the last six months have taught us anything, it’s that the rate of change can happen at breakneck speed when disaster strikes.

And we’re not even part way through this calamity.

Labor leader Rebecca White. Picture: Zak Simmonds

The next budget will be a disaster but it will be all but a waste of time given the uncertainty about the near future, continued border closures and risk of outbreak.

No one will blame the Gutwein government for that.

While the Federal Government financial support continues to course through the veins of our economy, we won’t feel the full brunt of the coronavirus crisis.

Things will only be worse when it comes to the following budget. Mr Gutwein could instead call an early election by saying he wasn’t elected by the people and that he wants to put his mandate for recovery to the polls. It would likely play to his favour.

The point being, if Labor is sticking with Ms White, the party’s only hope is to reset and play the long game.

If an election is still a way down the track, voters will want vision, hope and credibility.

The leader that can inspire and instil a sense of belief that better times are ahead will be the right leader for the next chapter in Tasmanian history.