Gutwein’s clear polling margin “disastrous” for Rebecca White, says leading political analyst
“This is not a reflection about Rebecca White … this is a reflection of a leader who is leading through a period of crisis.” Despite grim polling results, a former Labor premier says the party should not panic.
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NEW poll results have been described by a leading political analyst as “disastrous” for the state’s Opposition but a former Labor premier says the party should not panic.
A voting intentions poll of 1000 adult Tasmanians conducted by EMRS showed 70 per cent of respondents had Peter Gutwein as their preferred premier, up from 63 per cent in May and 41 per cent in March.
Conversely, 23 per cent preferred Labor leader Rebecca White, down from 26 per cent in May and 39 per cent in March.
Respondents were more likely (54 per cent) to vote Liberal than in March (43 per cent), while support for Labor decreased from 34 to 24 per cent in the same period.
It comes after a recent Newspoll showed Mr Gutwein had a 90 per cent approval rating, the highest of any premier in the country.
Political analyst Kevin Bonham said the numbers were concerning for Labor and would likely fuel not only that party’s leadership speculation, but talk of an early election.
“No party likes to be polling numbers like that and it suggests an abject lack of traction from opposition parties against what the government is doing, particularly on COVID-19 issues,’’ he said.
“Whenever you get an opposition polling very badly, you tend to get speculation about what they can do about it, and it can be hard to believe that the answer is nothing.”
But Lara Giddings, who served as Tasmanian premier from 2011-2014, said it was a “highly unusual” time and Mr Gutwein’s popularity now would not necessarily translate to the ballot box come election time.
“I don’t think you can judge these polls against what you would judge in a normal environment,’’ she said.
“This is not a reflection about Rebecca White … this is a reflection of a leader who is leading through a period of crisis.”
Ms Giddings agreed the poll could revive speculation about the Labor leadership, but she believed Ms White had “nothing to worry about”.
“I say to Labor, don’t panic. There’s a long time to go before the next election,’’ she said.
“You only have to look at what’s happened to Daniel Andrews in Victoria with the outbreak of COVID-19 to see how people's views of your popularity can change.
“These polls are a point in time and never a true reflection of what could happen in the future.”
Dr Bonham said he did not believe it was likely an early election would be called, saying it could backfire especially if voters perceived it to be optimistic.
EMRS research manager Paul Jamrozik said the poll results showed a sustained vote of confidence in the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Voters will be looking to both leaders in the coming months to assess their response to the COVID-19 impacts as they unfold,’’ he said.
“It should be noted that voter preferences will need to be interpreted in this context for some time to come.”
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