New RedBridge poll shows Coalition has pulled ahead of ALP

Australians struggling with the cost-of-living crisis are swinging to the Coalition, pushing it into a winning lead for the first time since the Albanese government was elected in 2022.

Australians struggling with the cost-of-living crisis are swinging to the Coalition, pushing it into a winning lead for the first time since the Albanese government was elected in 2022.

With Labor having to go to the polls by May next year, the latest RedBridge poll has found the Coalition is leading 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

It’s the first time since the last election the Opposition has pulled ahead of the government in RedBridge’s polling — and a big change from April when Labor was ahead 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

The turnaround has mainly been caused by a surge in the number of low and middle-income voters flocking to Peter Dutton and the Coalition.

The Coalition’s primary vote has also been boosted by men switching support from Greens and other minor parties.

The latest RedBridge poll is bad news for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: Nikki Short

Overall, since April the Coalition’s primary vote has leapt from 37 per cent to 41 per cent, but that percentage change has been much larger among middle and lower-income voters.

Since RedBridge last polled in April, the Opposition’s primary has surged 6 points (from 32 per cent to 38 per cent) among voters earning less than $1000 a week, and 4 points (from 35 per cent to 39 per cent) among voters earning between $1000 and $1900 a week.

In the same period Labor’s support with the two groups has slipped from 35 per cent and 36 per cent to be on 31 per cent for both of them.

Since April, Labor’s primary vote among all voters has fallen from 32 per cent to 31 per cent, which means it has now fallen 1.58 per cent below the 32.58 it got at the last election.

In contrast, the Coalition’s primary of 41 per cent is now well above the 35.7 per cent Scott Morrison got in the bruising loss of 2022 — and not far below the 42.04 per cent he got when he surprisingly beat Bill Shorten in 2019.

RedBridge director Kosmos Samaras, a former Labor strategist, said the Albanese government was not alone in its problems.

Battling voters are turning to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as the cost-of-living crisis shows no sign of easing. Picture: Martin Ollman

“Across many Western democracies every incumbent government has either lost or is behind in the polls,” he said.

“This is global trend fuelled by an affordability crisis that for many lower income constituencies is worse than any recession they or their families have ever confronted.”

His colleague Tony Barry agreed, saying it was “a difficult time to be an incumbent government and it’s even more difficult if you’re perceived by swing voters to be a mediocre incumbent government”.

“We are going to see a series of change elections in many­ ­jurisdictions in the coming 12 months and, with such a strongly negative mood sentiment in Australia, Anthony Albanese has to (outline) a credible plan for hope.”

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Originally published as New RedBridge poll shows Coalition has pulled ahead of ALP