Punters predict Sharma will lose Wentworth
Campaign Confidential: Punters predict an Allegra Spender victory in Wentworth, ScoMo’s staffers save the day, and the thing coal communities most want from the major parties.
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Staffers save the day
Campaign Confidential has previously noted Scott Morrison’s campaign team, and the speed with which they cover up any signs that might lend themselves to embarrassing photo ops. The team saved the day again on Thursday during the PM’s visit to the seat of Parramatta, but this time the save was aural not visual. While touring Abla’s Pastries in Granville with Liberal candidate Maria Kovacic, ScoMo was just about to step up to the mic when the radio started blasting through the shop’s speakers. The song in question: Britney Spears’ Toxic. Campaign Confidential is reliably informed the PM’s advisers wasted no time in getting staff to switch the radio off. Another day, another disaster averted: the team are certainly earning their keep.
Hey, big Spender
Allegra Spender will defeat Dave Sharma in the battle for the seat of Wentworth, punters on SuperVoter are predicting. The Climate 200-backed independent is backed to win the formerly blue ribbon seat by 50 per cent of people on SuperVoter, while 42 per cent say Sharma will be returned for a second term, and just 6 per cent say Labor’s Tim Murray will be victorious. The NewsCorp election prediction game (www.supervoter.com.au) is providing a fascinating insight into what readers think will actually happen on May 21, with nine seats currently tipped to change hands. Players are predicting Labor to pick up the seats of Pearce and Swan in WA, Boothby in SA, Bass in Tasmania, Longman in Queensland, Chisholm in Victoria and Reid in NSW – and only one seat, Gilmore in NSW, to go from Labor to Liberal. Wentworth is the only seat that SuperVoters think will go to a Climate 200-backed candidate, but on Sportsbet, both Allegra Spender and Zoe Daniel in Goldstein are the favourites to win. Despite the high profile of Dr Monique Ryan in Kooyong and Kylea Tink in North Sydney, Sportbet are still offering lower odds for their opponents, Josh Frydenberg and Trent Zimmerman respectively.
Archie’s here
The announcement of the finalists for the 2022 Archibald Portrait Prize reveals a smattering of people with connections to Australian political life – former MP Peter Garrett, ACTU boss Sally McManus and young climate activist Ella Simons – but no current pollies. Portraits of Prime Ministers have actually taken out the prize three times in the past, with two nods for the Labor Party (Gough Whitlam in 1972 and Paul Keating in 1991) and one for the Liberal Party (Robert Menzies in 1954). A portrait of Anthony Albanese painted by James Powditch was a finalist in 2020, while a study of Scott Morrison by Ross Townsend that same year didn’t make the cut. Campaign Confidential understands there were no portraits of Albo or ScoMo were submitted for consideration this year.
Sticking out like a sore thumb
Campaign Confidential’s spies couldn’t help but notice Scott Morrison’s thumb has been sporting a Band-Aid the past few days. At first we assumed this was a Repetitive Strain Injury from too much texting, but word from PM himself is that he sustained a cut while chopping onions for one of his famous curries. We just hope he didn’t drip blood on the chicken korma, because that thing looked ghastly enough as it was.
Own goal on coal
The number one thing coal communities in electorates like Hunter and Flynn want from politicians? It’s simply an “honest conversation” about the future of the industry, writes clean energy consultant Dr Amanda Cahill, who spoke to 500 organisations and individuals on the subject for a report out on Thursday. Worldwide, there’s a growing consensus that coal is cooked – 40 countries have pledged to phase it out, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says it’s a “stupid investment” and a “deadly addiction” and even the International Energy Agency says it’s time to drop it. According to Dr Cahill’s research, people in the regions accept change is coming, but want clarity on the when. But when it comes to when, it seems the major parties are less about an “honest conversation” and more about a message that won’t lose votes. Both parties plan to approve new mines; Labor says it won’t sign the “end coal” pledge; the Coalition’s modelling for net zero says coal will still be strong in Australia in 2050. So what does the industry say? Our last coal-fired power stations are due to close between 2040 and 2051, but the CEO of AGL Graeme Hunt recently said there was “no doubt” coal power will exit the system “earlier than previously believed”. It’s interesting to note however that one party is pretty honest about the future of coal. The Greens say they will shut the industry down by 2030 – but that sort of honesty is not exactly getting them showered with votes in the coal communities.
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Originally published as Punters predict Sharma will lose Wentworth
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