PM’s handling of Cyclone Alfred may be the vote boost he needs ahead of federal election
Anthony Albanese’s handling of ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred could better his fortunes as he heads into an election facing grim poll numbers.
Federal Election
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Anthony Albanese appeared poised to call the federal election when ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred bore down on the east coast.
With powerful winds, heavy rain and storm surges battering communities in southeast Queensland and northeast NSW, the Prime Minister’s message has been simple: “I’m focused on governing.”
Whether he acknowledges it or not, there is a political element to Alfred, and his handling of it could shape his odds when Australians cast their ballots some time in the next two months, according to ex-prime ministerial communications director, Lachlan Harris.
“It’s very advantageous, given the kind of the proximity of the election, that he’s done such a solid job,” Mr Harris told NewsWire.
“Not just in terms of preparing for it, ensuring people felt the information flows were right, but also being on the ground when he needed to be, being in the situation room when he needed to be, and reassuring people that the government was engaged and ready and prepared to react, whatever the scenario.”
Mr Harris ran communications for former prime minister Kevin Rudd, including during the deadly Black Saturday bushfires.
Mr Rudd was on the smouldering ground in Victoria immediately after the fires tore through communities and had an unsanitised look at the horror inflicted by “hell and all its fury”, as he described it to reporters.
He announced snap federal support and positioned himself, as the country’s leader, at the centre of updates – a move Mr Albanese has mirrored 16 years later.
“There’s two elements to this,” Mr Harris said.
“First of all, there’s a substantive fulfilment of the role and the perception that that role has been fulfilled.
“And I think Albo definitely did that over the last couple of weeks, and I think that’s reassured people a lot.
“The second issue, which people maybe underestimate a little, is these major events actually push people back to traditional news outlets, and I think that’s been extremely advantageous for the prime minister as well.”
He said the latter was giving Mr Albanese an edge over Peter Dutton, who has faced criticism for attending a fundraiser hosted by wealthy hospitality tsar Justin Hemmes in the days leading up to Alfred’s landfall.
The Opposition Leader flew from Sydney to weather the storm at his family’s Brisbane home, but has had few media engagements since the Hemmes event.
Mr Harris said Mr Dutton’s strategy of being “a little more direct to voter digital” while stepping back from traditional media was “incredibly successful” in normal circumstances, but was not landing in a “natural crisis environment”.
“It’s been incredibly successful for him, quite frankly,” he said.
“But in these particular moments, it doesn’t work. And actually his lack of capacity and his failure to perceive that has been a very, very costly error over the last couple of weeks.”
He noted it was not a personal criticism of Mr Dutton but just that “once you set that strategy, it’s very hard to readjust and kind of pursue a more news-based strategy”.
“Obviously, there was some big errors with the fundraiser, but in many ways, that created its own perfect storm (for the Dutton campaign), because they made a mistake, and then they weren’t communicating in the environment where people were really dependent on the news,” he said.
In contrast, Mr Albanese, like Mr Rudd, has managed “to become the explainer in chief and the reassurer in truth, not just the prime minister”, Mr Harris said.
“And that role is only available to you in moments like this, in these moments of significant national crisis.
“As the prime minister, you can do a lot more media, and there’s a lot more attention from voters to what the traditional media is doing and saying.”
No ‘game changer’
However well Mr Albanese handles Alfred, he is staring down an election with grim approval ratings and polls predicting a hung parliament.
Australians have endured nearly three years of rising living costs and growing social friction.
While the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut the official cash rate last month offered some relief for mortgage holders and signalled the worst of Australia’s inflation woes were over, consumer rights groups have said the prices of many items have been permanently raised.
Even in Queensland where “political culture reveres strong leadership” and the effects of Alfred have been most acute, cost of living and “culture wars” are what will ultimately decide the election rather than the disaster response, political scientist Paul Williams told NewsWire.
“I doubt it’s going to be a game changer, right?” he said of Mr Albanese’s cyclone response.
“It’s certainly not going to have much impact because the tide’s out for Labor and paradoxically, the most marginal Coalition seat is Peter Dutton’s and they ain’t going to win that – even though Dutton was pushed to the brink, much closer to the brink than I thought he would be last election.”
Dr Williams is an associate professor of politics and journalism at Queensland’s Griffith University and has spent decades reporting on and analysing how the Sunshine State votes.
He said that “under normal circumstances” Mr Dutton’s seat, Dickson, and other Coalition-held Queensland seats such as Petrie and Forde “should be periodically lost to Labor because it’s got a lot of ‘Struggle Street’ in it”.
“There’s a lot of tradies in there, but the problem is they’re independent tradies who don’t want Labor’s high taxes,” Dr Williams said.
“They love the Coalition’s love of lower taxes, smaller government, anti-union, and the ‘I can claim my tools on my tax’ kind of politics of John Howard.
“So those sorts of seats you think would go to Labor more often, but they don’t – they’re rusted on.”
He also said “culture wars” and Mr Dutton’s “attack on woke-ism” was resonating in those seats and throughout Queensland more broadly.
“You won’t see much of an economic attack from the Coalition, except to say that Albo caused the inflation problem, which, of course, is nonsense,” Dr Williams said.
“In the dying days of (Scott) Morrison’s prime ministership, the inflation rate was over six per cent, but that’s what they’ll say.”
But Mr Harris said “momentum matters hugely” in an election where polls put the parties neck-and-neck on a two-party preferred basis.
According to the latest Newspoll, taken between March 3 and 7, the Prime Minister’s approval rating climbed four points to 41 per cent, while his disapproval rating fell five points to 53 per cent.
It boosted his net performance from -21 to -12 – two points higher than Mr Dutton, who was hit with a two-point approval drop to 39 per cent and a two-point rise in dissatisfaction to 53 per cent.
“Because it is so close and so uncertain which way it’s going to go, the campaign really, really matters this time, and momentum leading into the campaign is hugely important,” he said.
“You can never overstate any one thing, and anything that can rise quickly can fall quickly.
“But this has been a really clear moment where it was an opportunity for Albo to stand up as a national leader, to be credible, to be reassuring, to execute well.
“And I think he’s done all three of those things.”
Originally published as PM’s handling of Cyclone Alfred may be the vote boost he needs ahead of federal election
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