One Nation switches preferences to support Coalition in must-win seats around Australia

One Nation is swooping to Peter Dutton’s rescue with a last-minute change preferencing the Liberals in key seats where the Coalition is either under threat or has a chance of beating Labor.

One Nation is coming to Peter Dutton’s rescue with a last-minute switch preferencing the Liberals second in key seats where the Coalition is either under threat or has a chance of beating Labor or an independent.

The party, headed by Queensland Senator Pauline Hanson, is authorising the reprinting of “how to vote” cards in at least ten marginal electorates the Coalition desperately needs to win, while more are under review to determine if they would benefit from One Nation preference flows.

The Opposition leader’s own Queensland seat of Dickson, which Mr Dutton holds by just 1.7 per cent, was tapped to get a reprinted One Nation flyer with a “2” next to his name just hours before pre-poll voting was due to open on Tuesday.

One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson. Picture: Supplied

With the Liberals lagging behind Labor in every published poll, the One Nation boost could be significant, particularly as Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots has opted to preference Teal independents above the Coalition.

Voters are not required to follow a “how to vote” card, but many Australians do, meaning preference decisions can influence tight contests.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton in the Melbourne electorate of Gorton on Monday. Picture: Richard Dobson / NewsWire

For example in the seat of Hunter, which Labor holds by just 3.31 per cent, One Nation received 9.9 per cent of the vote in 2022.

Nationally Ms Hanson’s party is currently polling at about 8 per cent.

One Nation chief of staff James Ashby said the party was restructuring its preferences in seats where the Trumpet of Patriots had put the chance of a conservative candidate’s success “at risk”.

“If it means saving Peter Dutton by shifting a ‘how to vote’ then we will do so,” he said.

Mr Ashby said there was a growing number of industries, church and community groups who had “lost confidence” in Labor and the Liberals, and were now reaching out to help One Nation on polling day.

One Nation’s preference shake up came after the Coalition had already listed Ms Hanson’s party above Labor on how to vote cards in 139 of 147 lower house seats this election.

In 57 of these seats the Coalition specifically preferenced One Nation second.

It’s a stark contrast to John Howard’s approach, who in 2001 said One Nation should be put “last” in every seat.

Pauline Hanson's One Nation will update its current how-to-vote cards (pictured) to preference Coalition candidates at number two.

A One National how-to-vote card that will be updated to put Coalition candidates as a second preference. Pictures: Supplied

In 2019 Scott Morrison recommended One Nation be put “below” Labor, though in 2022 the Liberals did send preferences to Ms Hanson’s party in 60 per cent of South Australian lower house seats and 40 per cent of NSW electorates ahead of the ALP.

This election Labor has widely preferenced the Greens, with the exception being Macnamara MP Josh Burns who opted not to do so based on the minor party’s response to the war in Gaza.

A Liberal campaign spokeswoman said the Coalition was focused on securing as many first preference votes as possible, and in the “vast majority of seats” will finish second, meaning preferences won’t be distributed.

“If this is a point of contention, the Labor Party should explain why they have put the Greens at two on all but one of their how-to-votes – a party that has been widely criticised for its antisemitic rhetoric, support for policies that would harm national security, and its radical approach to legalising hard drugs,” she said.

Trumpet of the Patriots leader Clive Palmer. Picture: Dan Peled/Getty Images

Meanwhile, a Trumpet of Patriots candidate in the Victorian Liberal-held seat of Flinders has withdrawn his candidacy after learning the billionaire-backed party would put the Liberal and Labor parties last behind Teal independents.

Jason Smart said he was “in utter disbelief” at Mr Palmer’s decision, and declared himself “nobody’s chump,” revealing he would instead help his local One Nation candidate in the seat.

Despite Labor’s lead in the polls, the Prime Minister said on Monday he was taking “nothing for granted”.

“We have a mountain to climb,” Mr Albanese said.

“We are a couple of steps up that mountain, but there’s a long way to go.”

Peter Dutton said the Coalition could “well and truly” still win the election, adding he believed people would vote on the basis their lives were “much harder” than three years ago.

The Opposition leader said preferences were a matter for Liberal Party officials, when asked about One Nation.

Read more federal election coverage here.

An earlier version of this story stated the Coalition listed One Nation “second” on how to vote cards in 139 of 147 lower house seats, this has been corrected to “ahead of Labor”.

Originally published as One Nation switches preferences to support Coalition in must-win seats around Australia