Federal election exit poll shows Labor on track to form government, closing in on majority

An exit poll of nearly 3700 voters shows Labor and the Coalition’s primary vote neck-and-neck while both parties appear in trouble in key seats.

Labor is on track to be returned to government according to new exit polling of real voters across 19 electorates.

An exit poll of nearly 3700 voters at 19 electorates across the country on Saturday — at booths most reflective of the final result at the 2022 election--- shows Labor and the Coalition’s primary vote neck-and-neck at 32 per cent.

But Greens preferences and Teal interference in some key seats could push Labor across the line in places like Queensland and cause the Coalition to lose electorates like Bradfield.

Today’s exit polling, when combined with figures from exit polling done in the first two days of early voting, show Labor securing a 2.2 per cent swing toward it.

The Coalition, based on the combined exit poll, would fail to improve on its dismal result in 2022 with the results showing a small 0.8 per cent swing against it.

Ultimately the exit polling shows Labor could hold in many of its marginal seats including Gilmore, Werriwa and Boothby — allowing it to hit or get very close to the 76 seats needed to govern in majority.

New South Wales

The combined exit polling result shows Climate 200-backed Nicolette Boele is almost certain to win Bradfield with a strong 35.2 per cent primary vote compared to the Liberal’s 39.2 per cent — a swing of 14.3 per cent to Ms Boele and 5.8 per cent against the Liberals compared to 2022.

In Werriwa the Liberals and Labor are neck and neck at 37.5 per cent and 37.8 per cent on their primary vote, though the Greens vote at 9 per cent will likely push Labor over the line to keep the seat in government hands.

A 7 per cent collapse in the Liberal vote in Gilmore and 8.5 per cent rise in Labor’s vote compared to 2022 — if reflected in the final results — would hand certain victory to Labor’s Fiona Phillips in a seat where well-known identity Andrew Constance was tipped to win.

In Paterson, the entry of independent Phillip Penfold has made the seat too close to call with the Liberals sitting on a primary vote of 30.8 per cent while Labor is on 34 per cent, a swing against those parties of 5.9 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively.

Labor’s Jerome Laxale in Bennelong could cement his position as the best marginal seat campaigner in the party, with the exit polling showing a healthy swing toward him of 7.3 per cent and a further collapse in the Liberal vote of 2.9 per cent.

Victoria

The Liberals and Teal independent Monique Ryan both sit on a primary vote of 39.3 per cent according to the exit polling, marking a 3.3 per cent drop in the Liberal vote and a 1 per cent drop for Ms Ryan.

Hopes could quickly fade of stealing Chisholm from Labor, with the Liberals securing only a small 1.5 per cent swing toward in the seat with a large Chinese diaspora. It means the Liberal’s Dr Katie Allen would secure a 37.8 per cent primary vote, compared to Labor’s Carina Garland’s 38.8 per cent.

Labor’s Julian Hill in Bruce will get a scare but likely hold on amid a 7 per cent increase in the Liberal vote and a 1 per cent fall in Labor’s vote according to the exit poll.

Labor will also hold on in McEwen, where the exit polling is projecting a 3.4 per cent swing toward Labor.

Tim Wilson’s return in Goldstein could spell trouble for Teal independent Zoe Daniel. The Liberal vote there has increase nearly 5 per cent compared to 2022, while Ms Daniel’s has fallen by 1.7 per cent.

The fate of both Kooyong and Goldstein will depend on where Labor and Greens preferences flow.

Queensland

Meanwhile in Queensland, Labor can expect a swing toward it across the inner-city target seats and Cairns if the exit polling results hold up.

The Greens vote has also held up across all its three Queensland seats.

In Brisbane, Labor’s Madonna Jarrett will lead the three cornered contest with a primary vote of 37.3 per cent, with the sitting Greens MP Stephen Bates on 28.5 per cent. Liberal Trevor Evans, on the poll count, comes in third with a primary vote of 31.5 per cent.

On those numbers Labor would take Brisbane from the Greens.

But the Greens have pulled ahead in the seat of Ryan, with Elizabeth Watson-Brown securing a primary vote of 37.4 per cent according to the exit polling, with Labor at 32.2 per cent and the LNP lagging at 27.4 per cent.

Up north in the perennial target seat of Leichhardt, the count will go down to the wire with Labor securing a 8.9 per cent swing toward it for a primary vote of 36.5 per cent.

But the Liberals are not far behind on 31.3 per cent, and the vote for the Greens (11.5 per cent), One Nation (8 per cent) and other minor parties (12.3 per cent) will complicate the preference flows.

Griffith remains too close to call, with sitting MP Max Chandler-Mather in line to secure a primary vote of nearly 37 per cent, compared to Labor’s 32.2 per cent and the LNP’s 28.7 per cent.

If Labor comes in second, it is possible Renee Coffey could be pushed to victory on the back of preferences from the LNP — just as what occurred in the state seat of South Brisbane in October last year.

The Teal experiment in McPherson won’t make a dent in the LNP’s dominance, with Leon Rebello expected to be easily returned should he secure a primary vote of 42 per cent as the exit poll suggests.

South Australia

The Peter Malinauskas effect continues to rage in South Australia, with Labor expected to enjoy further swings toward it in both Boothby and Sturt.

On the exit polling figures, Labor will take Sturt from the Liberals after securing a 39 per cent primary vote to their 36.5 per cent.

In Boothby, Nicolle Flint’s re-entry into the political fray looks unlikely to eventuate in a Liberal win with Labor estimated to experience a 6.7 per cent swing toward it. The Greens vote in Boothby has also climbed 4 per cent compared to 2022 to 19.3 per cent.

Tasmania

Lyons will no longer be a marginal seat for Labor if the exit poll results hold up, with candidate Bec White — a former state Labor opposition leader — expected to secure a significant primary vote.

The exit polling in Lyons was done across Old Beach and Brighton, though half of the votes came from the Sorell booth — square in Ms White’s support heartland.

Northern Territory

Labor looks to be in trouble in Solomon, with MP Luke Gosling expected to weather a small 2.3 per cent swing against him.

But more problematic is a potential 10 per cent surge in the CLP vote to 35 per cent, while the Teal independent has gleaned 14 per cent of the primary vote with no certainty on where his preferences will fall.

Originally published as Federal election exit poll shows Labor on track to form government, closing in on majority