First-time voters to shake up election results in nine seats amid Labor’s HECS debt ‘misdirect’

Anthony Albanese may have missed the mark with his pitch to slash student loans, with a new poll revealing the scheme won’t sway many younger voters.

Law student Lucas Salinger at UNSW’s Kensington campus. Lucas was among the nearly 18,000 school leavers who responded to the University Admissions Centre’s revealing pre-election report. Picture: Rohan Kelly

Young people and first-time voters will go to the polls on May 3 with the cost-of-living their top priority, according to new polling of thousands of Year 12 graduates.

Anthony Albanese has received a clear warning that it’s not only first home buyers, mums and dads voting on their hip pocket, with a survey of nearly 18,000 school leavers across Australia finding cost-of-living will influence how 86 per cent of them will vote.

Meanwhile Labor’s re-election pitch to first-time voters to lower their university costs by slashing student loans is less likely to shift votes than Labor might hope, with only 55 per cent of respondents influenced by promised changes to their HECS debt.

The University Admissions Centre’s fifth annual Student Lifestyle and Learning Report found promises to lower student loans ranks fourth among young voters’ top priorities, “misdirecting” focus from more pressing concerns like housing affordability, jobs and the economy.

Labor last year announced plans to slash HECS-HELP loans by 20 per cent in their next term, following legislated reforms that cap indexation in line with wages growth.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets with TAFE and University students at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Around one in four said immigration and LGBTQIA+ rights would impact their decision at the ballot box, meaning “politicians attempting to draw the bow between immigration, cost of living and housing affordability are likely to miss the target” with young people, the report found.

University of Sydney Professor of Australian Politics Rodney Smith said young voters are far more likely than the general population to vote for independents, Greens and other minor parties.

Extract from the Universities Admissions Centre's fifth Student Lifestyle and Learning report, which surveyed school leavers on their election hopes.

USYD Professor of Australian Politics Rodney Smith said it would be “a mistake to see young people as head-in-the-clouds idealists”. Picture: Supplied

Nearly 1.8 million people aged 18-24 are enrolled to vote and at least 740,000 people voting in this federal election for the first time, the majority of whom turned 18 after the last election.

There are nine electorates in which more than 12 per cent of voters are below the age of 25, according to the latest available electoral roll data, including the Greens-held west Brisbane electorate of Ryan, Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ Queensland seat of Rankin and the Western Sydney seat of Blaxland currently held by Education Minister Jason Clare.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers could be in for a challenge to win over the 14,000 young people in his otherwise safe Labor electorate. Picture: Dan Peled / NewsWire

Professor Smith said their political power shouldn’t be underestimated, pointing to the election of Jeremy Buckingham to the NSW upper house for the Legalise Cannabis Party in 2023 as evidence of the younger demographic’s impact.

“First time voters often don’t have strong political allegiances, and particularly in recent years, they’ve become much more disenchanted with the major parties,” he said.

“It would be a mistake to see young people as head-in-the-clouds idealists that don’t vote on the things that care about them directly.”

UNSW undergraduate Arts/Law student Lucas Salinger said cost of living is a top priority, but Labor’s HECS debt reforms have made students feel heard. Picture: Rohan Kelly

Law student Lucas Salinger said while “the Greens tout themselves” as the party for young Australians, Labor’s HECS reforms have influenced his first vote in a federal election after putting students’ issues on the table “for the first time” in mainstream politics.

“I feel sometimes that it is a bit selfish to look towards my own immediate needs in deciding where to put my vote,” the 19-year-old UNSW student said.

“Cost of living is definitely up there. Social issues are still a priority for me, but there haven’t been any policies on either side.

“Those (housing, jobs and the economy) are the issues that have been most highlighted by the parties and the media, while those issues – immigration, Indigenous rights – haven’t really been front and centre.”

The UAC report on trends among school leavers also found gap years are back in fashion post-Covid, with the proportion of Year 12s planning to take a gap year tripling from under 3 per cent in 2021 to 9.3 per cent this year.

Meanwhile students’ preference for on-campus classes at university has plummeted over the last five years from 64 per cent to 56 per cent, with an increasing number demanding “blended” online learning.

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Originally published as First-time voters to shake up election results in nine seats amid Labor’s HECS debt ‘misdirect’