Federal Election 2025: Labor Werribee disaster spells trouble for Albanese’s re-election hopes

The prime minister could be booted from government at the upcoming election if Labor’s disastrous showing at the Werribee by-election is repeated.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would be swept from power at the upcoming federal election if Labor’s disastrous Werribee by-election results in Victoria were mirrored nationwide.

The Victorian Labor Party suffered a mammoth 17 per cent primary vote swing against in it across the suburban electorate in Melbourne’s outer west and a two-party preferred swing of negative 10 per cent.

There are multiple federal Labor seats across Melbourne, specifically McEwen, Chisholm, Aston, Bruce, Dunkley, Corangamite and Hawke, on margins of less than 10 per cent, meaning they would likely fall if the swing in Werribee were replicated at the federal poll.

Labor MP Sam Rae holds Hawke with a margin of 7.6 per cent, while Carina Garland holds Chisholm with a slim 3.3 per cent margin.

Werribee is still on a knife’s edge, with the seat expected to be called on Friday.

Victorian Health Minister Mary-Anne Thomas, speaking after the breakdown, labelled the result “very humbling”

Victorian Deputy Premier Ben Carroll labelled the result “unacceptable”.

Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks alongside Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan. Werribee is ringing warnings bells for the state and federal Labor governments. Picture: NewsWire / David Crosling

“It was a sizeable swing,” Mr Carroll told 3AW this week.

“Unacceptable that result.

“We need to work hard, redouble our efforts.”

Pollster Kos Samaras warned Werribee showed Labor’s “red wall” had collapsed into a “barbed-wire fence”.

“Labor has just recorded its lowest primary vote in a seat they have held at any by-election in Victoria’s history,” he posted to X.

“If I were a Labor MP sitting in what was once a safe seat, I’d be doing one of two things: planning my retirement or treating my electorate as a critical marginal.

“The only silver lining for Labor? Many voters in Melbourne’s growth corridors still dislike the Liberal Party even more.”

There are also reasons to be cautious, however, about grafting Werribee’s results onto a national election.

Voters may be punishing the Victorian state government, rather than federal Labor, and it is not clear if the swings recorded in Werribee will be uniform across other federal electorates.

On February 10, Mr Samaras announced his firm’s latest Nationwide poll put the Coalition at 51.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis and Labor at 48.5 per cent.

“Labor’s primary vote in the outer suburbs has collapsed to just 27 per cent,” Mr Samaras said.

“Labor’s vote remains most stable in higher-income, inner-urban electorates, mirroring the trend seen in Victoria (Werribee).

“There, we got an early preview of the growing schism between the well-off, whose support Labor increasingly depends on, and the so-called ‘invisible Australians’ who are fed up with being ignored and are actively looking for another political home.”

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan, reflecting on Werribee, said voters were “sending a message”.

“We have to do more to support, particularly working people and their families, at this tough time,” she told ABC Radio.

“But we also have to look at what we can change, what we can improve, what we can build on.”

The federal election is yet to be called, but must be held before May 17.

Originally published as Federal Election 2025: Labor Werribee disaster spells trouble for Albanese’s re-election hopes