UN climate boss warns of 'mega-droughts' in dire climate forecast for Australia

Australia stands to lose $7000 per person annually and face “mega-droughts” while fresh produce becomes a luxury, the UN’s climate chief warns.

Australians have been warned that fruit and vegetables may become a “once-a-year treat” if the country fails to drastically lift its clean energy ambitions.

In a stark message delivered in Sydney on Monday, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said Australia faced a future of “mega-droughts”, plummeting living standards and eye-watering economic losses if it does not go much further on emissions cuts.

“Mega-droughts (will make) fresh fruit and veg a once-a-year treat. In total, the country could face a $6.8 trillion GDP loss by 2050,” Mr Stiell said during an address hosted by the Smart Energy Council, per The Australian.

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell warns Australia faces severe economic and environmental impacts, including mega-droughts and GDP losses of $6.8 trillion by 2050, if emissions reduction targets aren’t drastically increased. Picture: David Gray / AFP

His speech landed during a critical moment in Australia’s climate debate, with the Albanese government preparing to reveal its updated 2035 emissions target and push to co-host the next UN climate summit, COP31, alongside Pacific nations.

But as momentum builds internationally, domestic political opposition is also ramping up, chiefly led by Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce, who introduced a Private Member’s bill this week to repeal Australia’s net-zero commitment.

Mr Stiell, who meets with Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen in Canberra today, said setting an ambitious target wasn’t just about the environment, but rather economic survival.

“Australia has a strong economy and among the highest living standards in the world. If you want to keep them, doubling down on clean energy is an economic no-brainer,” he warned.

“Living standards could drop by over $7000 per person per year. And rising seas, resource pressures, and extreme weather would destabilise Australia’s neighbourhood – from Pacific Island nations to Southeast Asia – threatening your security.”

Australia’s current pledge is to cut emissions by 43 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030.

The Climate Change Authority (CCA) is reportedly weighing up whether to recommend a more aggressive target of 65 to 75 per cent by 2035.

The Albanese government is under pressure to set more ambitious emissions targets ahead of submitting updated commitments to the UN by September.

That advice is due by the end of this month.

Mr Stiell claimed that anything less would fall short.

“Bog standard is beneath you,” he said. “The question is: how far are you willing to go?”

That decision must be made by September, when Australia is due to submit its updated Nationally Determined Contributions to the UN.

It will come amid a wave of climate diplomacy for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is expected to use a series of major international forums to press Australia’s case to host COP31.

Mr Stiell’s warning was not just directed at the Albanese Government.

It also served as a harsh jab at the growing campaign by Coalition backbenchers and conservative commentators arguing Australia’s energy transition will hurt the economy and disadvantage regional communities.

Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce on Monday accused inner-city Australians of pushing policies that harm the disadvantaged, saying: “Are you prepared to hurt the poor?”

Mr Joyce’s “Repeal Net Zero” bill, backed by several Coalition rebels, proposes scrapping Australia’s carbon-neutral target by 2050, a goal in line with most other developed nations.

“There’s absolutely no reason that Mascot Airport can’t work 24/7,” he told reporters.

“But we understand that people don’t want planes flying over themselves in the middle of the night … but we don’t want transmission lines over our head either. We don’t want wind towers either, so there’s got to be a form of quid pro quo.”

Political opposition is growing, particularly from Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce, who aims to repeal Australia’s net-zero commitment, arguing that climate policies disproportionately harm regional communities. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

His argument suggests city-dwellers are demanding action on climate change without shouldering its costs, leaving regional communities to deal with some sort of flow-on infrastructure burden.

“You don’t feel virtuous if you’re hurting people,” Mr Joyce said.

While the bill is unlikely to pass without support from Liberal moderates, Mr Joyce’s position is influential within the Nationals and perhaps reflects a growing pushback on climate policy from prominent sections of the Coalition.

Joining him outside Parliament House were fellow Nationals Michael McCormack and Liberal MP Garth Hamilton, the only member of the senior Coalition partner to back the bill publicly.

Mr Stiell responded to the political noise over the past fortnight with a message of economic pragmatism and global responsibility.

Mr Stiell urged Australians to avoid short-term thinking and embrace ambitious climate action. Picture: Mark Stewart

“I think Australians get it. From cabinet rooms to boardrooms, from farms to factories to kitchen tables, you know unchecked climate change is an economic wrecking ball,” he said.

“You know half-measures will destroy property and infrastructure, hammer households, bankrupt regions, and punch holes in public budgets. And you know that real action opens the door to real leadership – and big rewards for this ambitious, capable country.”

He warned Australians against short-term thinking and urged them to embrace a rapid energy transition.

“The change is working,” he said.

“Now consider the alternative: missing the opportunity and letting the world overheat. Go for what’s smart by going big. Go for what will build lasting wealth and national security. Go for what will change the game – and stand the test of time. Go for it.”

Originally published as UN climate boss warns of 'mega-droughts' in dire climate forecast for Australia